Please allow time for floater to build.
• STORM FLOATER •
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PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN ,
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...NEAR ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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DISCUSSION ----------------------------------- The focus of convection around Marian is now positioned in the southern and eastern quadrants over the past 6 hours. There is still good confidence in the position of the system due to a recent Scatterometry pass. Marian is currently over 24-25C sea surface temperatures, experiencing low shear and looped satellite imagery indicates good poleward outflow. Dvorak analysis: DT=3.0 with curve band analysis ranging from 0.65-0.75. MET=3.0 based a steady trend. PAT yielded 3.0. FT/CI at 3.0. CIMSS and NESDIS ADT agree on CI=2.3 32 knot 1-min wind. SATCON is at 46 knots 1-min [1501 UTC]. The current intensity at 45 knots. Over the next couple of days Marian will track south southeast under the influence of mid-latitude trough to the southwest. The system is forecast to maintain tropical cyclone intensity over the next 18-24 hours in a low shear environment, however SST's of 24-25C will prevent any further intensification. During Friday Marian is expected to encounter a high shear environment whilst also being influenced by some dry air which will all act to weaken the system. Marian will likely struggle to maintain vertical structure and weaken below tropical cyclone intensity Friday night/Saturday morning however gales may still continue into Sunday on the southern flank due to the interaction with ridge to the south. Latest model guidance is consistent with maintaining the system at tropical cyclone intensity over the next 48 hours. The current forecast diverges from this guidance and follows a conceptual model that deteriorating environmental conditions during Friday [unfavourable SSTs, high shear and dry air] will ultimately weaken the system below cyclone intensity by Saturday morning.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW Bureau of Meteorology $$ Forecaster
• OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST •
• BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY FORECAST •
