696. Tropical Cyclone Niran » Text ProductsMay 18th, 2021 at 07:09 AM

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3 years ago

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PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN , 

    
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...NEAR    ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
    
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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...CYCLONE PRE-ALERT...
*New Caledonia

Please refer to MétéoFrance New Caledonia for the latest warnings.

DISCUSSION
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Severe Tropical Cyclone Niran is accelerating to the east southeast well off the
Queensland coast. A clear eye continues to be evident in microwave and EIR
imagery. However some of the deeper convection in the southeast quadrant has
eased over the last 3 hours.
 
Dvorak yields an eye pattern with a LG/CMG eye temperature and a White
surrounding temperature yielding a DT of 6.0. MET/PT agree. FI/CI is 6.0 with an
intensity of 100 knots. CIRA ADT guidance continues to under estimate the
intensity [75 knots, 0316 UTC] not capturing an eye pattern, but most other ADT
guidance show an intensity around 105 knots [1 min mean]. SATCON estimates 108
knots [1-min mean] at 0327 UTC 5 March. 

The NE'ly shear continues to be low to moderate [12KT] in the CIMMS 0600 UTC
analysis. CIMSS satellite winds indicate dual outflow channels across the
system; sea surface temperatures are above 29C along the forecast track. The
easterly shear is expected remain similar over the next 6 to 12 hours. Hence,
intensification is forecast to continue over the next 12 hours. 

There is high confidence that the system will maintain an east-southeast track
away from the Queensland coast over the next few days before approaching New
Caledonia over the weekend. This motion will continue as a result of an upper
trough that is currently moving across eastern Australia. 

During Saturday the shear increases and shifts to be northwesterly. A
combination of this associated with this upper trough and cooler sea surface
temperatures should lead to a gradual weakening of the system as it moves
further across the Coral Sea during the weekend.

LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
Bureau of Meteorology
    

    
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Forecaster