756. Tropical Storm Odette » Text Products

May 18th, 2021 at 07:13 AM

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2 years ago

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PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN , 

    
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...NEAR    ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
    
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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DISCUSSION
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Ex-Tropical Cyclone Odette is weakening although the previously exposed low
level centre is now obscured by a flare up of deep convection in the past few
hours. 

Scatterometry [ASCAT and HY2B at 2030UTC] shows only a small area of gales east
of the centre only consistent with model guidance as the  accelerates to the
south today as it orbits the larger and stronger Seroja to the southwest. 

Intensity set at 35kn biased towards the scatterometry evidence and consistent
with these other inputs. Dvorak analysis: FT/CI=2.5 based , although recent
convection near the centre has boosted DT to be 2.5 by applying shear pattern
towards MET on a slight weakening 24h trend. ADT in the 2.8 [NESDIS] to 2.9
[CIMSS] range; no recent SATCON update. 

Strong wind shear has been the dominant weakening mechanism although the shear
has now eased to 15kn and renewed convection is evident near the centre, albeit
without organisation. Odette is not likely to recover although the rapid
translation speed will assist the maintenance of gales on the eastern side with
model guidance suggesting a further 06-12 hours east of the centre prior to
dissipating. Model guidance is consistent steering Odette around Seroja taking a
turn to the south-southwest later today.

LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
Bureau of Meteorology
    

    
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Forecaster