YOUR SURNAME: kanck
YOUR CITY: singapore
YOUR STATE: singapore
TIME (e.g. 1800 UTC SAT FEB 22 2020): 0830 UTC SAT APR 23 2021
ADVISORY HEADLINE: JOBO WEAKENS DOWN FURTHER AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AND SET TO DISSIPATE OVER TANZANIA


INPUT INTERP ATCF: sh292021 JOBO 20210424 0815 -7.83 40.4 S TS 35.0 1005.0 8.24 286.58
ADVISORY NUMBER: 7


NEXT ADVISORY TIME (e.g. SEP 16 2021, 1800 UTC)

Please allow time for floater to build.

• STORM FLOATER •

  S ()
PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN , 

    
......
    
SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
-----------------------------------
LOCATION...NEAR    ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
    
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
-----------------------------------

DISCUSSION
-----------------------------------
LAST NIGHT, DUE TO MODERATE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR, THE MAIN CLOUD
MASS DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHED THE COAST OF TANZANIA, IT BENEFITED FROM AN
INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION, DEEP
CONVECTION REFORMED OVER THE CENTER, ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONSEQUENTLY THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF JOBO IS
MAINTAINED STATIONARY.

JOBO IS STILL A WEAK SYSTEM SUBJECT TO THE STEERING FLOW OF THE LOWER
LAYERS OF THE TROPOSPHERE. JOBO CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE DISPERSION IN THE DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE MODELS IS
IMPORTANT IN DIRECTION, NEVERTHELESS JOBO IS APPROACHING THE
TANZANIAN COASTS AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED 100 KM OFFSHORE. JOBO IS
EXPECTED TO LAND BETWEEN ZANZIBAR AND MOHORO NEXT NIGHT.

IT IS MAINLY A WESTERLY MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR THAT WEAKENED JOBO.
THIS ONE IS WEAKENING A BIT, BUT THE HIGH TROPOSPHERE SHEAR IS
STRENGTHENING AT THE SAME TIME, MAINTAINING A WESTERLY STRESS ON THE
SYSTEM.
IF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM BENEFITS TEMPORARILY
FROM THE APPROACH OF THE COASTS, IT IS A WEAK SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD
LAND NEXT NIGHT AND FILL UP QUICKLY WHEN IT ARRIVES ON LAND.

IN TERMS OF EXPECTED IMPACTS AT THE LANDING OF JOBO, THE IMPACTS WILL
BE LIMITED IN TERMS OF WIND BUT HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
LANDING AREA BETWEEN ZANZIBAR AND MTWARA, AND EVEN OVER THE NORTH OF
MOZANBIQUE. FROM SUNDAY, WE CAN EXPECT TO HAVE ACCUMULATIONS THAT CAN
REACH 200/300 MM IN 24 HOURS (EVEN VERY LOCALLY 400 TO 500 MM), THAT
IS TO SAY QUANTITIES EQUIVALENT TO THE MONTHLY ACCUMULATION FOR A
MONTH OF APRIL.=
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
MeteoFrance La Reunion
    

    
$$
Forecaster 
• OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST •

• METROFRANCE FORECAST •

©2020 Force Thirteen • Cyclone Tracker • Text Products