665. Subtropical Storm Surigae » Text ProductsMay 18th, 2021 at 07:07 AM

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3 years ago

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  W ()
PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN , 

    
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...NEAR    ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
    
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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DISCUSSION
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THE SYSTEM IS
  IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
  OF LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
  WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS.

  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
  SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
  VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.

  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
  ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST
  IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
  TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
  DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.

  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
  OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
  WILL THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
  TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
  GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.

LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
Japan Meteorological Agency
    

    
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Forecaster