Please allow time for floater to build.
• STORM FLOATER •
W () PUBLIC ADVISORY # FORCE THIRTEEN , ...... SUMMARY OF INFORMATION ----------------------------------- LOCATION...NEAR ... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB WATCHES AND WARNINGS -----------------------------------
DISCUSSION ----------------------------------- TS CONSON IS LOCATED AT 14.1N, 120.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANAYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW Japan Meteorological Agency $$ Forecaster
