Please allow time for floater to build.
• STORM FLOATER •
W () PUBLIC ADVISORY # FORCE THIRTEEN , ...... SUMMARY OF INFORMATION ----------------------------------- LOCATION...NEAR ... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB WATCHES AND WARNINGS -----------------------------------
DISCUSSION ----------------------------------- TY CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 15.7N, 131.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS. THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW Japan Meteorological Agency $$ Forecaster
