Please allow time for floater to build.
• STORM FLOATER •
W () PUBLIC ADVISORY # FORCE THIRTEEN , ...... SUMMARY OF INFORMATION ----------------------------------- LOCATION...NEAR ... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB WATCHES AND WARNINGS -----------------------------------
DISCUSSION ----------------------------------- TS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 17.9N, 158.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW Japan Meteorological Agency $$ Forecaster