Tropical Storm Namtheun » Text Products





UNIQUE IDENTIFIER: r
TIME (e.g. 1800 UTC SAT FEB 22 2020): 2020 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021
ADVISORY HEADLINE: NAMTHEUN ACCELERATES NORTHWEST


INPUT INTERP ATCF: wp232021 NAMTHEUN 20211010 2015 18.46 158.35 W TS 45.94 994.0 10.92 303.38
ADVISORY NUMBER: 3


NEXT ADVISORY TIME (e.g. SEP 16 2021, 1800 UTC)OCT 11 2021, 0600 UTC.

Please allow time for floater to build.

• STORM FLOATER •

  W ()
PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN , 

 
......
 
SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
-----------------------------------
LOCATION...NEAR    ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
-----------------------------------

DISCUSSION
-----------------------------------
  TS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 17.9N, 158.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
  1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
  THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
  INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
  HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO
  MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
  SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.

  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
  CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
  BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
  ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
  THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.

  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
  HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
  AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
  FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
  AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS


  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
  SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
  OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM
  WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
  BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.

LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
Japan Meteorological Agency
 

 
$$
Forecaster 

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