Tropical Depression 25W » Text Products





UNIQUE IDENTIFIER: r
TIME (e.g. 1800 UTC SAT FEB 22 2020): 1330 UTC SUN OCT 24 2021
ADVISORY HEADLINE: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONSOLIDATING SLOWLY AS IT HEADS NORTH NOW


INPUT INTERP ATCF: wp252021 TWENTYFIVE 20211024 1330 13.64 139.66 W TD 30.0 1002.0 10.49 348.59
ADVISORY NUMBER: 5


NEXT ADVISORY TIME (e.g. SEP 16 2021, 1800 UTC)OCT 25 2021, 0000 UTC.

Please allow time for floater to build.

• STORM FLOATER •

  W ()
PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN , 

 
......
 
SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
-----------------------------------
LOCATION...NEAR    ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
-----------------------------------

DISCUSSION
-----------------------------------
  A TD IS LOCATED AT 13.8N, 140.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
  PRESSURE IS 1008HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
  ARE 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
  DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK
  VWS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT
  TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS HAVE
  GATHERED AROUND THE CSC.

  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
  THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE
  TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
  NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
  THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.

  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
  WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
  OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
  SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
  BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
  BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.

LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
Japan Meteorological Agency
 

 
$$
Forecaster 

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