Please allow time for floater to build.
• STORM FLOATER •
W () PUBLIC ADVISORY # FORCE THIRTEEN , ...... SUMMARY OF INFORMATION ----------------------------------- LOCATION...NEAR ... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB WATCHES AND WARNINGS -----------------------------------
DISCUSSION ----------------------------------- A TD IS LOCATED AT 13.8N, 140.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS. THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW Japan Meteorological Agency $$ Forecaster
