Please allow time for floater to build.
• STORM FLOATER •
W () PUBLIC ADVISORY # FORCE THIRTEEN , ...... SUMMARY OF INFORMATION ----------------------------------- LOCATION...NEAR ... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB WATCHES AND WARNINGS -----------------------------------
DISCUSSION ----------------------------------- A TD IS LOCATED AT 11.8N, 141.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS. THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW Japan Meteorological Agency $$ Forecaster
