Cyclone Yasa A Cyclone Threat to Fiji


As of 3:00AM UTC, cyclone Yasa is currently a Category 2 in Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Cyclone Yasa is located approximately 725km west-northwest of Suva, Fiji, and has tracked northeastward at 7 kmh (4mph) over the past 6 hours.Satellite imagery reveals a 20 nautical miles ragged eye that has developed over the past 6 hours with spiral bands wrapping into the low level circulation center.Yasa is forecast to track generally northeastward over the next 12 hours before turning to track due east over the next 24 hours, tracking to the east-southeast after this.Yasa will continue to intensify due to favorable environmental conditions reaching a peak intensity of 215 kmh (130mph) over the next 2 days. The current track has Yasa passing between viti levu and vanua levu, Fiji between 48 and 72hours.Interaction with the terrain as it passes between the islands and moderate (30-40kmh) wind shear thereafter will weaken the system to 120 kmh (75mph) in 5 days.Forecast models are in poor agreement due to the complex steering environment. There is a 275 nautical miles across track spread in model solutions over the next 3 days, which increases to 470 nautical miles in 5 days.

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