Cyclone Yasa Weakens Slightly To A Category 4, Still A Dangerous Storm
Cyclone Yasa is located 241km north-northwest of Suva, Fiji, and has tracked east-southeastward at 20 km/h over the past 6 hours.Environmental analysis reveals an overall favorable environment characterized by warm (28-29°C) sea surface temperatures, low (5-10 knots) vertical wind shear, good equatorward outflow, and enhanced poleward outflow aloft.The system is tracking generally southeastward along the northwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge positioned to the southeast. In the near term, the system is expected to track generally southeastward with the model solutions in fair agreement.Throughout this transit, the system should gradually weaken due to moderate wind shear and land interaction, decreasing intensity to 215 km/h (130 mph) in 24 hoursAt this time, the system will begin to turn southwestward along the northern periphery of the steering subtropical ridge and the system should maintain this general track for the remainder of the forecast period.Cool (<26°C) sea surface temperatures and high (>45kmh) wind shear will continue to weaken the system in the extended forecast, leading Yasa to weaken to 75 km/h (45mph) in 5 days.
CURRENT INFORMATION AND FORECAST:
Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center