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As of 07:15 UTC on May 20th, Cyclone Ialy was located near 5.6°S, 44.3°E, or approximately 354 miles (570 km) east-northeast of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Ialy has maximum sustained winds of 49 knots and a minimum central pressure of 994 millibars.
Ialy currently lies over sea surface temperatures of around 29°C (84.2°F).ATCF®
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Did 91W become Jelawat?
dead
Guys: How many storm names do you think will be retired this year?
Idalia, Otis
The names Idalia, Lidia, and Otis will be retired. I do not know about Lidia, but the other two will be retired.
Dora probably.
Why?
i do believe that basins in both hemispheres can support at least a tropical cyclone, the water there is still decent. it’s just lacking a spark to ignite the whole thing… anyone agrees with me? it’s like.. the soil is fertile but there’s no seeds, saplings,…
This partly explains why WPAC is so quiet this winter.
yeah I see
we will be having another haiyan if there’s more time for jelawat to intensify, luckily it’s boutta make landfall soon and such things like that won’ t happen
JMA Has named 91W into Jelawat and is now a TS.
ATCF products, including the one used by this site (through https://www.knackwx.com), will not work properly. I am reporting this in advance for potential outdated data as there are no longer any other available data streams. I will do my best to provide updated data during this outage.
Moving forward, prototype plans have been drafted for these types of issues not covered.
How’d u get the big text?
JMA TD Track https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#6/8.994/130.078/&elem=root&typhoon=all&contents=typhoon&lang=en
91W is apparently a TD to JMA
jasper is now just a mess of thunderstorms
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=aus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2023121406&fh=6
jasper will feed off the juicy sweet boiling waters in the gulf, which is worrisome. also, it’s looking good despite traversing over land (idk why, any explanations?)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=aus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2023121306&fh=6
it can’t be…
Remember that GFS originally expected Ilsa to peak as a 882-mb cyclone.
GFS is rlly trusty, but we must be aware that they aren’t 100% correct, especially in the longer range
WHAT
look at this: GFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for Australia | Tropical Tidbits check out frame +312! it peaks at 917 hpa but it is very uncertain yet to make any decisions
I think this cyclone will get a 2nd life and probably be stronger.
can wind shear pushes tropical cyclones equator-ward? if the cyclone does reach the equator, what will happen?
yes maybe, but the storm will quickly weaken and dissipate
Wind shear is defined as a change of windspeed (and direction) in different atmospheric layers.
You want a uniform stream of air coming from one place (called steering wind flow) across the entire atmosphere that can push a storm in one direction. In this case from the southeast (Southern Hemisphere) or northeast (Northern Hemisphere) to push it towards the equator.
91W will do the Fujiwara effect with Cyclone Jasper.
no
It seems that 91W is on a consolidating trend.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=aus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2023121106&fh=6
jasper will be fueling further destruction (by creating more instability), or will it be having it’s second life? only the time will tell us….
92P isn’t likely to develop
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=aus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2023121006&fh=6
be sure to check it out, that model run will be something to watch out, which is worrrisome