Hurricane Epsilon undergoing extratropical transition, while 95L rises up in the west Caribbean.


Epsilon is the 26th name storm in record-breaking 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. It formed on October 19th and got named just 3 hours after, surpassing the previous record of the earliest formation of the 26th name storm in a season, established by Delta 2005. Earlier it’s only expected to strengthen to a category 1 hurricane under fair conditions, but turned out to go farther to a category 3 hurricane, peaked at 8p.m. October 21st Atlantic standard time (AST), with maximum 1-minute sustain winds of 115mph, with minimum central pressure of 951mb, proven by reconnaissance plane.  Soon then it began to weaken as its eye started to wobble, and currently weakening to a category 1 hurricane. Meanwhile, invest 95L is starting to form and could become a threat to Cuba and southern coast of the United States.

Current Storm Information
As of 11 a.m. AST, according to latest National Hurricane Center advisory, Epsilon is now a category 1 hurricane, with maximum sustain wind of 80mph (130mph) and gust of 100mph (155km/h), with a pressure of 958mb (28.29 inHg), moving northeast at 13mph (20km/h), slightly more intense compare with the previous update. The mean tropical storm force winds also extended to 260 nautical miles, and it vary greatly in each quadrant due to extratropical transition.
Yet still Epsilon is still blowing out convection of -60s near the center, refusing to transform. The CDO remains complete and rather regular, but the bands outside it has shown frontal pattern and dry, cold air is ready to intrude Epsilon’s warm core and turn it to cold core, losing tropical characteristics as it keeps moving northeastward.
At the moment baroclinic deepening is ongoing for Epsilon due to extratropical transition,  then it will finish the transition turning into a full extratropical cyclone, continues to expand way further. Also the pressure will continue to drop as occlusion start to occur and the occluded front rolls into the center. It’s predicted to continues its northeast motion and accelerates, approaching to Iceland, bringing strong winds and precipitation there.
cone graphic

Area of interest going to form, threatening southern coast of the US again
As of 12:00UTC automated tropical cyclone forecast (ATCF), invest 95L has winds of 25 knots, with gust of 35kts, and a minimum central pressure of 1007mb. The National Hurricane Center gave it a near 100% chance of formation within 48 and 120 hours. It is expected to move northwestward then northward, entering the Gulf of Mexico and strengthen to a significant tropical storm. However, models tracks are still dispersed and the point of landfall is still uncertain, ranged from Louisiana to west Florida.
Recon is scheduled flying into 95L and at the moment the NOAA 3 mission is now en route towards 95L, while NOAA 2 will also be under mission flying into 95L, taking off at 03Z, 25th October.

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