Hurricane Estelle Remains a Category 1 While Moving Away from Baja California


Hurricane Estelle remains to be a category 1 hurricane while moving away from Baja California in Mexico. As of 12:00 PM UTC, Estelle is located at 17.1 degrees north and 109.8 degrees west, moving between west and northwest at around 12 mph. The wind speed of Estelle is currently 80 mph, and its pressure is 986 millibars, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Looking to the distances from this hurricane, Estelle is currently 358 mi away from Cabo San Lucas, 422 mi away from La Paz, and 459 mi away from Mazatlán. There are no coastal warnings in effect as this hurricane will move away from the Baja California peninsula.

Swells generated by Estelle are only affecting the coasts of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and south of the Baja California peninsula as of this writing. The surges are forecasted to continue for 1-2 days and can cause life-threatening surf or rip currents conditions. As for the sea-surface temperatures with Estelle degenerating, the temperatures in the far west won’t be an issue, as the temperatures under the range of this storm are around 27.5 degrees Celsius. However, the sea surface temperatures on Estelle will decrease while moving northwest from Mexico. According to the NHC’s forecast cone, Estelle will continue to move northwestward, weakening into a tropical storm on Wednesday and then into a tropical depression by Saturday.

The latest NHC cone on Estelle.

The latest Multi-Model Diagnostic Comparison shows the GFS predicting the intensity of Estelle’s wind speeds to be around 35 mph, along with the HWRF model. On the other hand, the models of HMON, LGEM, and LSHP predicted that Estelle’s wind speeds be 25-30 mph. From the satellite imagery, Estelle looks to be rebounding from its previous structure while rolling northwest away from Baja California, as we can infer that this hurricane will weaken soon.

The latest Multi-Model Diagnostic plot for Estelle, courtesy of RAMMB.
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