Atlantic tropics: Beryl a major hurricane, two possible cyclones likely to form

Credit: NOAA, NESDIS / STAR / GOES-16.
Hurricane Beryl has reached Category 4 status in the Saffir-Simpson scale, becoming the first Category 4 major hurricane in June, while the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor two possible cyclones in the basin.

Current information

The current NHC outlook.

As of the 11:35am AST (3:35 pm UTC) update, Hurricane Beryl is located at 10.8 degrees north, 54.9 degrees west, or about 350 miles to the east-southeast of Barbados. Current reconnaissance data support winds of 130 mph (195 km/h) and a central pressure of 962 millibars, and is moving west at 21 mph (18 knots). Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).

In the latest 8am EDT outlook, the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor Invest 94L, located over the southern portion of the Bay of Campeche. According to the NHC, environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a short-lived tropical depression could form before the system moves inland over Mexico on Monday morning. It has a 50% chance of forming in the next 7 days, with a reconnaissance aircraft enroute to investigate the system as of this writing.

Next to Beryl is Invest 96L, which remains at a 70% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone in the next 7 days, as it is likely to form in the middle of next week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph through the Atlantic.

Current warnings

The current NHC key messages.

A Hurricane Warning, meaning hurricane conditions are expected, is in effect for:

  • Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands, Grenada, and Tobago

A Tropical Storm Warning, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours, is in effect for:

  • Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours, is in effect for:

  • Dominica and Trinidad

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be issued later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Current forecast

Beryl has continued its rapid intensification as reconnaissance data have showed over the last few hours. Given the continued conducive environmental conditions and compact inner core, it will likely strengthen some more through tonight. Beryl is expected to be a very dangerous category 4 hurricane when it moves through Windward Islands. The models show a gradual increase in shear when the system moves across the Caribbean Sea and that should cause Beryl’s intensity to go down and then gradually weaken. However, Beryl is expected to remain a significant hurricane through the next 5 days.

In the track side, it has continued to move swiftly westwards under a strong subtropical ridge to its north, but it has been moving south of the models’ forecasts over the past day or two. A continued quick west to west-northwest motion is forecast during the next several days as the ridge remains the primary steering feature. This should take the core of Beryl near Grenada by Monday morning into night and then across much the Caribbean Sea during the following few days.

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Current hazards

The current rainfall predictions for Beryl.
  • Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning early Monday morning. Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands, with the highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada.
    Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area starting late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
    Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area starting late tonight.
  • A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
  • Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through Monday. Localized maxima of 10 inches is possible, especially in the Grenadines. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas.
    Showers and thunderstorms well north of the track may produce 1 to 4 inches of rain over portions of southeastern Puerto Rico Monday night into Tuesday.
    Rainfall from Beryl may impact portions of southern Hispaniola Tuesday into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of rain possible.
  • Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Preparations should be rushed to completion as Beryl continues its trek towards the Windward Islands. The island of St. Lucia has issued a shutdown order starting from 8pm AST (12am UTC). Evacuate if directed by officials, and stay tuned to your local meteorological office for updates, and to us as the hurricane season progresses. You can always check our 24/7 automated stream which you can watch here:

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Mulisha Ward james
Mulisha Ward james
15 days ago

Hello am from union island the grenadines

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