Hurricane warnings in effect as Hurricane Beryl nears the Windward Islands
Hurricane Beryl continues its rapid intensification and is now projected to make a pass through the Windward Islands as a major hurricane, with hurricane warnings in effect at the islands in its path.
Current information
As of the 11pm AST (3am UTC) advisory, Hurricane Beryl is located at 10.4 degrees north, 51.2 degrees west, or about 595 miles to the east-southeast of Barbados. It currently has winds of 85 mph (140 km/h) and a central pressure of 986 millibars, and is moving west at 20 mph (17 knots).
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).
Current warnings
A Hurricane Warning, meaning hurricane conditions are expected, is in effect for:
- Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands, and Grenada.
A Tropical Storm Warning, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours, is in effect for:
- Martinique and Tobago.
A Tropical Storm Watch, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours, is in effect for:
- Dominica.
Current forecast
Beryl is expected to maintain is current westward track with its speed over the next couple of days. This would take the system to the Windward Islands by Monday morning, and is forecast to pass at the middle of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and Grenada into Monday night, before continuing towards the Carribbean.
A subtle weakness in this ridging in the 24-48 hour period should help the hurricane gain a bit of latitude before the mid-level ridge builds back in over the southeastern U.S. by the middle of next week, likely resulting in a turn back more westward by Thursday.
In the intensity side, Beryl has all it needs to continue its rapid intensification, with the light to moderate easterly shear that had been affecting the system subsiding, while the hurricane remains embedded in a large area of deep-layer moisture and over 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures. The small and well-organized inner core likely means the storm should take full advantage of these conditions, with the SHIPS rapid intensification index showing a 62% chance of increasing its current winds by 25 knots in 24 hours. The current NHC forecast has a major hurricane of 125 mph (110 knots) as it passes through the Windward Islands.
Once Beryl enters the Caribbean, there could be a marked increase in westerly vertical wind shear as a strong easterly low-level jet will keep Beryl moving quickly westward against lighter upper-level upper-level easterlies partially eroded by a deep-layer trough off the Eastern Seaboard. Some weakening is forecast after 48 hours as Beryl moves further into the Caribbean.
Current hazards
- Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning Sunday night. Devastating wind damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area starting Sunday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area starting Sunday night. - A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow near where Beryl makes landfall in the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
- Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands Sunday night into Monday. This rainfall may cause flooding in vulnerable areas.
Showers and thunderstorms well north of the track may produce 1 to 4 inches of rain over portions of southeastern Puerto Rico Monday night into Tuesday.
Rainfall from Beryl may impact portions of southern Hispaniola Tuesday into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of rain possible. - Swells generated by Beryl are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Residents within the warning area should start preparations as the system continues its track, and monitor products issued by their national meteorological services. Stay tuned to us as this system progresses. We currently have a 24/7 automated stream live, and you can watch here:
