Hurricane watch issued as Tropical Storm Beryl intensifies in the Atlantic; two more cyclones possible
The Atlantic tropics are waking up from its slumber with the recent formation of Tropical Storm Beryl in the central Atlantic, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are monitoring two more invests that can possibly form in the next 7 days.
Current information
As of the 8am AST (12pm UTC) update, Tropical Storm Beryl is located at 9.8 degrees north, 46.8 degrees west, or about 890 miles to the east of Barbados. It currently has winds of 60 mph (95 km/h) and a central pressure of 999 millibars, and is moving west at 21 mph (18 knots).
As for the two possible cyclones, the NHC is monitoring Invest 94L, which is currently over the Yucatan Peninsula. According to the latest 8pm EDT outlook, it is forecast to form over the Bay of Campeche tonight or tomorrow, before it moves inland Mexico next week. It currently has a 40% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone in the next 7 days.
Meanwhile, another area of low pressure to the east of Beryl is also being monitored by the NHC. It currently has a 60% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone in the next 7 days, and is looking to form in the middle of next week as it moves at a general speed of 15 to 20 mph across the Atlantic.
Current warnings
Currently, a Hurricane Watch has been issued by the Barbados national meteorological service as Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane once it reaches the island. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of Beryl, and additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of this area later this morning.
Current forecast
Beryl is forecast to continue intensifying as it moves along the Atlantic’s abnormally favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, with warm sea surface temperatures throughout its whole forecast track. The models are consistent with Beryl tracking west to west-northwest towards the Windward Islands, and it could track towards Jamaica at the end of the 5-day period.
In the intensity side of things, Beryl has a chance of rapidly intensifying, with the SHIPS index showing a 44% chance of increasing its current intensity by 65 knots in 72 hours. The current NHC forecast has Beryl intensifying into a hurricane by tomorrow early morning AST, and having a peak intensity of 110 mph by Monday as it moves near Barbados. It has been pointed out that their forecast could be conservative, as several of the intensity guidance models forecast Beryl to become a major hurricane.
Forecasted impacts
- Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area by Sunday night or Monday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible on Sunday.
- A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow in the Hurricane Watch area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
- Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands. This rainfall may produce localized flooding in vulnerable areas.
- Swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Stay tuned to your local meteorological office and to us as the Atlantic season progresses. You can check our live automated stream at:
