Severe flooding issues continue for parts of Minadanao and Samar in the Philippines today, as a broad tropical disturbance continues to affect the region. Unfortunately, the rainfall situation is now expected to get worse in southern Luzon and Catanduanes in the next week, as the forecast projection has been increased. Up to 800mm of further rainfall is now possible for these areas over the weekend and into the start of next week, before the system gets torn apart.
Elsewhere, several other areas of interest are active, with two disturbances in the Southwest Indian Ocean. Computer models are now suggesting that the eastern system may not become the dominant one, and the western system may take over. This situation favours a weaker but much larger cyclone further west that goes on to affect northern Madagascar next week. Both systems could still form.
In the South Pacific, two areas of interest have a low chance of development near French Polynesia and Fiji. These systems are not likely to develop.
Watch tonight’s Tropical Weather Bulletin using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2WVVOSnLe4