Major Rainfall Event for the Philippines – Tropical Weather Bulletin – January 10, 2023


A tropical disturbance in the Western Pacific is about to lash the Philippine islands, and will persist for several days over the area and potentially develop into a tropical cyclone. Samar and Catanduanes are likely to receive the highest rainfall, with up to 700mm possible according to computer model depictions. Catastrophic flooding issues are likely, with high rain rates expected over the next few days.

Elsewhere, a tropical disturbance in the Southwest Indian Ocean could develop into a cyclone as it starts to turn towards the southwest, and could affect Madagascar and the Mascarene islands next week. Model runs have been developing more consistency with this cyclone being a major issue for the region, with a powerful storm possibly on the cards.

In the South Pacific, an area of interest is developing near French Polynesia, and could develop into a tropical cyclone as it steers southwards late this week and towards the Austral Islands. There is also a chance for a storm near Fiji this week, but uncertainty remains too high for a designation at this time.

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