Watch our animation of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MM86Ghca5RQ

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Current information

As of the 11:35am AST (3:35 pm UTC) update, Hurricane Beryl is located at 10.8 degrees north, 54.9 degrees west, or about 350 miles to the east-southeast of Barbados. Current reconnaissance data support winds of 130 mph (195 km/h) and a central pressure of 962 millibars, and is moving west at 21 mph (18 knots). Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).

In the latest 8am EDT outlook, the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor Invest 94L, located over the southern portion of the Bay of Campeche. According to the NHC, environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a short-lived tropical depression could form before the system moves inland over Mexico on Monday morning. It has a 50% chance of forming in the next 7 days, with a reconnaissance aircraft enroute to investigate the system as of this writing.

Next to Beryl is Invest 96L, which remains at a 70% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone in the next 7 days, as it is likely to form in the middle of next week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph through the Atlantic.

Current warnings

A Hurricane Warning, meaning hurricane conditions are expected, is in effect for:

• Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands, Grenada, and Tobago

A Tropical Storm Warning, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours, is in effect for:

• Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours, is in effect for:

• Dominica and Trinidad

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be issued later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Current forecast

Beryl has continued its rapid intensification as reconnaissance data have showed over the last few hours. Given the continued conducive environmental conditions and compact inner core, it will likely strengthen some more through tonight. Beryl is expected to be a very dangerous category 4 hurricane when it moves through Windward Islands. The models show a gradual increase in shear when the system moves across the Caribbean Sea and that should cause Beryl’s intensity to go down and then gradually weaken. However, Beryl is expected to remain a significant hurricane through the next 5 days.

In the track side, it has continued to move swiftly westwards under a strong subtropical ridge to its north, but it has been moving south of the models’ forecasts over the past day or two. A continued quick west to west-northwest motion is forecast during the next several days as the ridge remains the primary steering feature. This should take the core of Beryl near Grenada by Monday morning into night and then across much the Caribbean Sea during the following few days.

Current hazards

• Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning early Monday morning. Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands, with the highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada.
  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area starting late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area starting late tonight.
• A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
• Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through Monday. Localized maxima of 10 inches is possible, especially in the Grenadines. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas.
  Showers and thunderstorms well north of the track may produce 1 to 4 inches of rain over portions of southeastern Puerto Rico Monday night into Tuesday.
  Rainfall from Beryl may impact portions of southern Hispaniola Tuesday into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of rain possible.
• Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Preparations should be rushed to completion as Beryl continues its trek towards the Windward Islands. The island of St. Lucia has issued a shutdown order starting from 8pm AST (12am UTC). Evacuate if directed by officials, and stay tuned to your local meteorological office for updates, and to us as the hurricane season progresses. You can always check our 24/7 automated stream which you can watch here:

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Current information

As of the 11pm AST (3am UTC) advisory, Hurricane Beryl is located at 10.4 degrees north, 51.2 degrees west, or about 595 miles to the east-southeast of Barbados. It currently has winds of 85 mph (140 km/h) and a central pressure of 986 millibars, and is moving west at 20 mph (17 knots).

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).

Current warnings

A Hurricane Warning, meaning hurricane conditions are expected, is in effect for:

• Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands, and Grenada.

A Tropical Storm Warning, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours, is in effect for:

• Martinique and Tobago.

A Tropical Storm Watch, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours, is in effect for:

• Dominica.

Current forecast

Beryl is expected to maintain is current westward track with its speed over the next couple of days. This would take the system to the Windward Islands by Monday morning, and is forecast to pass at the middle of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and Grenada into Monday night, before continuing towards the Carribbean.

A subtle weakness in this ridging in the 24-48 hour period should help the hurricane gain a bit of latitude before the mid-level ridge builds back in over the southeastern U.S. by the middle of next week, likely resulting in a turn back more westward by Thursday.

In the intensity side, Beryl has all it needs to continue its rapid intensification, with the light to moderate easterly shear that had been affecting the system subsiding, while the hurricane remains embedded in a large area of deep-layer moisture and over 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures. The small and well-organized inner core likely means the storm should take full advantage of these conditions, with the SHIPS rapid intensification index showing a 62% chance of increasing its current winds by 25 knots in 24 hours. The current NHC forecast has a major hurricane of 125 mph (110 knots) as it passes through the Windward Islands.

Once Beryl enters the Caribbean, there could be a marked increase in westerly vertical wind shear as a strong easterly low-level jet will keep Beryl moving quickly westward against lighter upper-level upper-level easterlies partially eroded by a deep-layer trough off the Eastern Seaboard. Some weakening is forecast after 48 hours as Beryl moves further into the Caribbean.

Current hazards

• Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning Sunday night. Devastating wind damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands.
  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area starting Sunday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area starting Sunday night.
• A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow near where Beryl makes landfall in the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
• Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands Sunday night into Monday. This rainfall may cause flooding in vulnerable areas.
  Showers and thunderstorms well north of the track may produce 1 to 4 inches of rain over portions of southeastern Puerto Rico Monday night into Tuesday.
  Rainfall from Beryl may impact portions of southern Hispaniola Tuesday into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of rain possible.
• Swells generated by Beryl are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Residents within the warning area should start preparations as the system continues its track, and monitor products issued by their national meteorological services. Stay tuned to us as this system progresses. We currently have a 24/7 automated stream live, and you can watch here:

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Current information

As of the 8am AST (12pm UTC) update, Tropical Storm Beryl is located at 9.8 degrees north, 46.8 degrees west, or about 890 miles to the east of Barbados. It currently has winds of 60 mph (95 km/h) and a central pressure of 999 millibars, and is moving west at 21 mph (18 knots).

As for the two possible cyclones, the NHC is monitoring Invest 94L, which is currently over the Yucatan Peninsula. According to the latest 8pm EDT outlook, it is forecast to form over the Bay of Campeche tonight or tomorrow, before it moves inland Mexico next week. It currently has a 40% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone in the next 7 days.

Meanwhile, another area of low pressure to the east of Beryl is also being monitored by the NHC. It currently has a 60% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone in the next 7 days, and is looking to form in the middle of next week as it moves at a general speed of 15 to 20 mph across the Atlantic.

Current warnings

Currently, a Hurricane Watch has been issued by the Barbados national meteorological service as Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane once it reaches the island. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of Beryl, and additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of this area later this morning.

Current forecast

Beryl is forecast to continue intensifying as it moves along the Atlantic’s abnormally favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, with warm sea surface temperatures throughout its whole forecast track. The models are consistent with Beryl tracking west to west-northwest towards the Windward Islands, and it could track towards Jamaica at the end of the 5-day period.

In the intensity side of things, Beryl has a chance of rapidly intensifying, with the SHIPS index showing a 44% chance of increasing its current intensity by 65 knots in 72 hours. The current NHC forecast has Beryl intensifying into a hurricane by tomorrow early morning AST, and having a peak intensity of 110 mph by Monday as it moves near Barbados. It has been pointed out that their forecast could be conservative, as several of the intensity guidance models forecast Beryl to become a major hurricane.

Forecasted impacts

• Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area by Sunday night or Monday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible on Sunday.
• A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow in the Hurricane Watch area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
• Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands. This rainfall may produce localized flooding in vulnerable areas.
• Swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Stay tuned to your local meteorological office and to us as the Atlantic season progresses. You can check our live automated stream at:

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In the Bay of Bengal, a tropical storm is drawing nearer to the coast of West Bengal and Bangladesh, with winds near 45 miles per hour (72kph). The storm is expected to wash ashore near Bhola island in the next 24 hours before rapidly weakening. Some strengthening is likely before landfall.

In the Western Pacific, the remnants of Tropical Depression 17W are still active, and are likely to dump large amounts of rain over the Philippines starting tomorrow. Rainfall amounts in parts of the eastern Visayas and southern Luzon could approach 700mm.

Watch Friday’s Tropical Weather Bulletin using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqGUCfxtHfI

The post Jamaica on Alert for New Storm – Tropical Weather Bulletin – November 17, 2023 appeared first on Force Thirteen.

The storm is expected to brush past the coast of southern Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macau over the next 24 hours, bringing storm surge, strong winds and heavy rainfall, and up to 300mm of rain could fall in the region, causing flash flooding and landslides.

Typhoon Haikui is also intensifying as it limbers towards Taiwan, where it is expected to strike this weekend, where the storm is expected to drop huge amounts of rain over the island and on to eastern China, where rain totals could accumulate to over 500mm.

The storm is expected to make landfall as a Category 1 or 2 typhoon.

Ex-hurricane Idalia is now an extratropical cyclone and is approaching Bermuda, where it is expected to regenerate into a tropical storm, and watches are now in effect for the island.

The storm is expected to once again turn post-tropical by Tuesday.

In the West Pacific, Tropical Storm Kirogi is struggling, while a hemisphere away tiny Tropical Storm Jose is expected to remain short lived under the shadow of Hurricane Franklin, which itself is on its way out.

Further systems are expected to develop in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, with trouble brewing in the Western Pacific again next week.

Watch our full Tropical Weather Bulletin using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qW0DbskiiE0

The post Typhoons Impacting China, Taiwan and Hong Kong – Tropical Weather Bulletin – September 1, 2023 appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Tomorrow Wednesday, Idalia is expected to make landfall on the western coast of Florida, as there will be heavy rains, strong winds, and storm surges to arrive in the morning. Furthermore, there will be a hurricane warning in some portions of Florida’s west coast and a tropical storm warning in other portions of the east coast in Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina as Idalia was far from the eastern coast areas and will expect to make storm surges, strong winds, and heavy rainfall soon as a tropical storm. A hurricane warning and a tropical storm warning means that a hurricane or a tropical storm is expected to make landfall in your area in the next 36 hours. If your home is vulnerable to strong winds and heavy rainfall, please evacuate to the nearest designated evacuation shelter with your emergency kit or stay indoors and stay away from windows.

Moving forward to the model predictions on Idalia, most models predicted that it will curve towards Florida and then brush towards the coastal areas of Georgia and South Carolina, according to most models. For the sea surface temperatures near Idalia, it will get a little bit warmer to around 28 degrees Celsius, meaning that it’ll favor further intensity in the next few hours. Lastly, for the satellite imagery, we noticed that Idalia swirls toward the panhandle of Florida, as we saw no eyewall, but seen in the radar imagery. Stay tuned to the Force Thirteen website for more article updates!

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LATEST INFORMATION

The National Hurricane Center 10AM update on Major Hurricane Ian states the storm is located at 26.2°N 82.7°W, or about 60 miles (95 km) west of Naples, Florida, or about 65 miles (105 km) southwest of Punta Gordo, Florida. The reconnaissance mission flying over the storm, as of the writing, finds the storm to have maximum 1-minute sustained winds of 155 mph (135 kts / 250 kph) with gusts reaching up to 190 mph (165 kt / 305 kph.) The reconnaissance mission also found out the storm’s minimum central pressure is 937 millibars and is moving towards north-northeast at a speed of 10 mph (9 kts / 17 kph.)

CURRENT WARNINGS

Hurricane Warning is in effect over Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, and Dry Tortugas.

Storm Surge Warning is hoisted over Suwannee River southward to Flamingo, Tampa Bay, Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West, Dry Tortugas, Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River, and St. Johns River.

Tropical Storm Warning is in raised over the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas, Indian Pass to the Anclote River, all of the Florida Keys, Flamingo to South Santee River, Flamingo to Chokoloskee, Lake Okeechobee, Florida Bay, and Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands.

Storm Surge Watch is in effect over Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to east of Big, Pine Key, Florida Bay, and the mouth of St. Mary’s River to South Santee River.

WHAT TO EXPECT?

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause coastal areas to be flooded by the rising waters brought by the storm. Storm surge of up to 18 feet is forecast by the NHC from Englewood to Bonita Beach, and the Charlotte Harbor— that is almost two-stories high if you have a house next to a coast. Storm surges in other parts of the Florida west coast are still life-threatening and could see up to 12 feet.

WINDS: Tropical Storm conditions are currently being felt over central and southwestern Florida, with Hurricane winds coming from the coast as the storms approach Florida Peninsula. These winds can severely damage infrastructures like homes and office buildings, uproot trees, and take down electric poles that could prevent any vehicles trying to get out of the storm.

RAIN: Totals of up to 18 inches, with local totals up to 24 inches are forecast for central and northeastern Florida, including Fort Myers, Tampa, and Orlando. The Florida Keys, south Florida, eastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina could receive as much as 8 inches of rain. These amount of rain is likely to cause flash flooding and coastal flooding especially those that would receive at least a foot of rain. Combined with storm surge, coastal areas are likely to experience higher flood.

TORNADOES: Formation and landfall of tornadoes across central Florida is possible, bringing additional damage to areas to be affected.

Please follow all orders of the local government if you still haven’t. Time has run out to do any significant preparation to the storm, and brace for catastrophic landfall. Force Thirteen hopes everyone that will be affected by the storm will be safe as the storm passes through the state. You can also watch the live landfall coverage of Ian here:

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LATEST INFORMATION

On the 8AM EST advisory of the National Hurricane Center, Major Hurricane Ian was last located at 22.3°N 83.7°W, or about 10 miles (15 km) north-northeast of the City of Piñar del Rio, Cuba, or about 130 miles (240 km) south-southwest of Dry Tortugas, Florida. The storm packs 1-minute sustained winds of 125 mph (205 kph / 110 kts) and gusts reaching up to 155 mph (250 kph / 135 kts.) The storm was estimated to have a minimum central pressure of 952 millibars and is moving north at a speed of 12 mph (19 kph / 10 kts.)

CURRENT WARNINGS

Hurricane Warning is issued over the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa; Bonita Beach to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, and Dry Tortugas in Florida.

Storm Surge Warning is hoisted over Anclote River southward to Flamingo and Tampa Bay

Hurricane Watch is issued over North of Anclote River to the Suwannee River

Storm Surge Watch is issued over the Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West, Dry Tortugas, Florida Bay, Aucilla River to Anclote River, Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line, and the Saint Johns River

Tropical Storm Warning is hoisted over the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas, Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West, Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Suwannee River to the Anclote River, Volusia/Brevard County Line south to Jupiter Inlet, and Lake Okeechobee.

Tropical Storm Watch is in effect north of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, Altamaha Sound to Volusia/Brevard County line, and Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet.

WHAT TO EXPECT?

TRACK AND INTENSITY: Major Hurricane Ian is forecast to slightly intensify in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico at 145 mph (120 kts / 230 kph) tomorrow. After this intensification, the storm is expected to slowly weaken up until its landfall over the Tampa Bay Area on Thursday morning.

STORM SURGE: Central Florida, including the Tampa Bay area is forecast to experience storm surge up to 10 feet. Other parts of the state could experience anywhere from 1 to 8 feet of storm surge. These storm surges could cause coastal inundation and flooding.

RAINFALL: Six inches up to a foot of rainfall is still forecast over Western Cuba as the storm rainbands continue to affect the island. In the Central portion of Florida, totals of up to 16 inches are forecast. And in the rest of the state, rain gauges could still measure up to 10 inches. This amount of rainfall will cause widespread flooding and rivers overflowing.

WIND: Hurricane-force winds over western Cuba are still expected Tuesday, strength of these winds should reduce as the Ian moves north. Floridian west coast up to Central Florida is forecast to experience gale-force winds tonight and hurricane-force winds starting Wednesday morning. These winds could destroy homes, uproot trees, and take down electric poles.

TORNADOES: As the storm moves over the Southeastern United States, tornadoes could form on Wednesday morning.

Please heed the evacuation on several counties across the State of Florida and for more information, go to https://www.floridadisaster.org/evacuation-orders/. For more localized forecast you can refer to NWS Offices across the state like NWS Key West (https://www.weather.gov/key/), NWS Tampa Bay (https://www.weather.gov/tbw/), NWS Miami (https://www.weather.gov/mfl/), NWS Tallahassee (https://www.weather.gov/tae/), and NWS Jacksonville (https://www.weather.gov/jax/).

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Current Information

As of 11am Eastern Standard Time, Hurricane Ian is located at 19.1 degrees north and 82.7 degrees west, or about 100 miles west of Grand Cayman, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (130 kph), with gusts up to 100 mph (155 kph), and a central pressure of 980 millibars. The storm is currently moving northwest at 13 mph (20 kph).

Current Warnings

A Hurricane Warning, meaning hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours, is in effect for:

• Grand Cayman
• Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Warning, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours, is in effect for:

• Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
• Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
• Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch, meaning there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours, is in effect for:

• Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
• Dry Tortugas
• Florida Bay
• Anclote River southward to the Card Sound Bridge
• Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch, meaning hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours, is in effect for:

• Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours, is in effect for:

• Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
• Englewood southward to Flamingo
• Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge
• Lake Okeechobee

Current Forecast

Ian is set to continue rapid intensification as it turns north-northwest, and become a major hurricane by tomorrow as it reaches western Cuba. From there, the hurricane is forecast to peak in the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with winds of 140 mph (220 kph), before weakening into a Category 2 due to a combination of strong southwesterly shear and dry air, and hit Florida with the same intensity. The storm is then forecast to weaken into a tropical storm as it moves inland.

Current Hazards

Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash floods and possible mudslides are the main hazards for Ian as the aforementioned threats are expected in portions of western Cuba beginning this evening and continuing into Tuesday. Devastating wind damage is possible where the core of Ian moves across western Cuba.

Hurricane-force winds are possible in the hurricane watch area in west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions possible by late Tuesday.

Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall associated with rainbands may lead to flooding across all of South Florida. Rainfall totals may range 3 to 8 inches through Thursday with locally higher amounts possible, and the risk could extend later into the week. This may result in significant flooding impacts. Peak storm surge values of 3 to 5 feet are possible along the Southwest Florida coast mainly between Tuesday night and Wednesday night. This could lead to significant and life-threatening storm surge flooding.

Tornadoes may be embedded in showers and thunderstorms within the outer rainbands associated with the system. Main concern is from tonight through Wednesday. Hazardous marine and beach conditions are expected with a high risk for rip currents across all South Florida beaches. Elevated surf conditions are expected along the Gulf coast.

Stay safe from this storm, and listen to local officials for recommended preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately. Force Thirteen will be live this afternoon, and you can watch it through here:

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