Cyclone Dikeledi made landfall in the Nampula province of Mozambique at around 16:00 CAT, today, January 13, 2025 (according to observations from the Force Thirteen team) with a pressure of 975mb and a wind speed of 100mph(160km/h). It is now moving south-south-west and will start to change to a southeasterly direction at 8 AM or so La Reunion time on Tuesday, where it is likely to pass to the south of Madagascar.

Rainfall Accumulation Estimates

Cyclone Dikeledi can be expected to bring around 250mm of rain to areas of the Mozambique coast, whilst showers and thunderstorms associated with the storm could produce up to 350mm in areas of Western Madagascar as the storm moves southeast. As anticipated, the main hazard with the storm is rainfall, which could produce flash floods and mudslides.

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Current Information

As of 18Z on July 3rd, 2024, Beryl was located at 16.8 degrees north, 75.3 degrees west, and was moving west-northwest at approximately 18 mph. The latest outlook from the NHC about Beryl’s stats supported maximum winds of 144 mph and a central pressure of 954 mb.

Current Warnings & Watches

A hurricane warning was recently reissued for the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, indicating that intense hurricane conditions are expected to hit the affected islands. Meanwhile, the NHC issued a hurricane warning for the eastern coasts of the Yucatan peninsula in Mexico while issuing tropical storm watches for the northern portions of the Yucatan peninsula and the southeastern coasts of Belize. Again, if you live in one of the affected areas from Beryl, please monitor additional warnings or watches issued by your national meteorological service within your area.

Current Forecast

As the cone forecast data has shown, as of 11 a.m. EDT today, Beryl will continue to move to the Yucatan peninsula while passing through the southern coasts of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands as a major hurricane for some time. By 8 a.m. EST on Friday, Beryl will land on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, then head into Texas around the following Monday at 8 a.m.

Current Hazards

Hurricane Beryl is now spreading windy tropical conditions to Jamaica and is also expected to bring rainfall of 4 to 8 inches there, making outside preparations dangerous or difficult. Meanwhile, a life-threatening storm surge will rise by up to 2 or 4 feet above sea levels in areas of the Cayman Islands, followed by 3 to 5 feet on the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula. Preparations should be rushed to complete as Beryl will land on the Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands tomorrow night or Friday morning. Evacuate when directed by officials, and stay tuned to your national meteorological service or Force Thirteen for updates. You can also check out Hurricane Beryl’s most recent live tracking here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EEwPe2RPxVk.

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Current information

As of the 11:35am AST (3:35 pm UTC) update, Hurricane Beryl is located at 10.8 degrees north, 54.9 degrees west, or about 350 miles to the east-southeast of Barbados. Current reconnaissance data support winds of 130 mph (195 km/h) and a central pressure of 962 millibars, and is moving west at 21 mph (18 knots). Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).

In the latest 8am EDT outlook, the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor Invest 94L, located over the southern portion of the Bay of Campeche. According to the NHC, environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a short-lived tropical depression could form before the system moves inland over Mexico on Monday morning. It has a 50% chance of forming in the next 7 days, with a reconnaissance aircraft enroute to investigate the system as of this writing.

Next to Beryl is Invest 96L, which remains at a 70% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone in the next 7 days, as it is likely to form in the middle of next week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph through the Atlantic.

Current warnings

A Hurricane Warning, meaning hurricane conditions are expected, is in effect for:

• Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands, Grenada, and Tobago

A Tropical Storm Warning, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours, is in effect for:

• Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours, is in effect for:

• Dominica and Trinidad

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be issued later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Current forecast

Beryl has continued its rapid intensification as reconnaissance data have showed over the last few hours. Given the continued conducive environmental conditions and compact inner core, it will likely strengthen some more through tonight. Beryl is expected to be a very dangerous category 4 hurricane when it moves through Windward Islands. The models show a gradual increase in shear when the system moves across the Caribbean Sea and that should cause Beryl’s intensity to go down and then gradually weaken. However, Beryl is expected to remain a significant hurricane through the next 5 days.

In the track side, it has continued to move swiftly westwards under a strong subtropical ridge to its north, but it has been moving south of the models’ forecasts over the past day or two. A continued quick west to west-northwest motion is forecast during the next several days as the ridge remains the primary steering feature. This should take the core of Beryl near Grenada by Monday morning into night and then across much the Caribbean Sea during the following few days.

Current hazards

• Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning early Monday morning. Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands, with the highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada.
  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area starting late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area starting late tonight.
• A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
• Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through Monday. Localized maxima of 10 inches is possible, especially in the Grenadines. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas.
  Showers and thunderstorms well north of the track may produce 1 to 4 inches of rain over portions of southeastern Puerto Rico Monday night into Tuesday.
  Rainfall from Beryl may impact portions of southern Hispaniola Tuesday into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of rain possible.
• Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Preparations should be rushed to completion as Beryl continues its trek towards the Windward Islands. The island of St. Lucia has issued a shutdown order starting from 8pm AST (12am UTC). Evacuate if directed by officials, and stay tuned to your local meteorological office for updates, and to us as the hurricane season progresses. You can always check our 24/7 automated stream which you can watch here:

The post Atlantic tropics: Beryl a major hurricane, two possible cyclones likely to form appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Current information

As of the 11pm AST (3am UTC) advisory, Hurricane Beryl is located at 10.4 degrees north, 51.2 degrees west, or about 595 miles to the east-southeast of Barbados. It currently has winds of 85 mph (140 km/h) and a central pressure of 986 millibars, and is moving west at 20 mph (17 knots).

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).

Current warnings

A Hurricane Warning, meaning hurricane conditions are expected, is in effect for:

• Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands, and Grenada.

A Tropical Storm Warning, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours, is in effect for:

• Martinique and Tobago.

A Tropical Storm Watch, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours, is in effect for:

• Dominica.

Current forecast

Beryl is expected to maintain is current westward track with its speed over the next couple of days. This would take the system to the Windward Islands by Monday morning, and is forecast to pass at the middle of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and Grenada into Monday night, before continuing towards the Carribbean.

A subtle weakness in this ridging in the 24-48 hour period should help the hurricane gain a bit of latitude before the mid-level ridge builds back in over the southeastern U.S. by the middle of next week, likely resulting in a turn back more westward by Thursday.

In the intensity side, Beryl has all it needs to continue its rapid intensification, with the light to moderate easterly shear that had been affecting the system subsiding, while the hurricane remains embedded in a large area of deep-layer moisture and over 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures. The small and well-organized inner core likely means the storm should take full advantage of these conditions, with the SHIPS rapid intensification index showing a 62% chance of increasing its current winds by 25 knots in 24 hours. The current NHC forecast has a major hurricane of 125 mph (110 knots) as it passes through the Windward Islands.

Once Beryl enters the Caribbean, there could be a marked increase in westerly vertical wind shear as a strong easterly low-level jet will keep Beryl moving quickly westward against lighter upper-level upper-level easterlies partially eroded by a deep-layer trough off the Eastern Seaboard. Some weakening is forecast after 48 hours as Beryl moves further into the Caribbean.

Current hazards

• Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning Sunday night. Devastating wind damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands.
  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area starting Sunday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area starting Sunday night.
• A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow near where Beryl makes landfall in the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
• Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands Sunday night into Monday. This rainfall may cause flooding in vulnerable areas.
  Showers and thunderstorms well north of the track may produce 1 to 4 inches of rain over portions of southeastern Puerto Rico Monday night into Tuesday.
  Rainfall from Beryl may impact portions of southern Hispaniola Tuesday into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of rain possible.
• Swells generated by Beryl are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Residents within the warning area should start preparations as the system continues its track, and monitor products issued by their national meteorological services. Stay tuned to us as this system progresses. We currently have a 24/7 automated stream live, and you can watch here:

The post Hurricane warnings in effect as Hurricane Beryl nears the Windward Islands appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Current information

As of the 8am AST (12pm UTC) update, Tropical Storm Beryl is located at 9.8 degrees north, 46.8 degrees west, or about 890 miles to the east of Barbados. It currently has winds of 60 mph (95 km/h) and a central pressure of 999 millibars, and is moving west at 21 mph (18 knots).

As for the two possible cyclones, the NHC is monitoring Invest 94L, which is currently over the Yucatan Peninsula. According to the latest 8pm EDT outlook, it is forecast to form over the Bay of Campeche tonight or tomorrow, before it moves inland Mexico next week. It currently has a 40% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone in the next 7 days.

Meanwhile, another area of low pressure to the east of Beryl is also being monitored by the NHC. It currently has a 60% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone in the next 7 days, and is looking to form in the middle of next week as it moves at a general speed of 15 to 20 mph across the Atlantic.

Current warnings

Currently, a Hurricane Watch has been issued by the Barbados national meteorological service as Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane once it reaches the island. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of Beryl, and additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of this area later this morning.

Current forecast

Beryl is forecast to continue intensifying as it moves along the Atlantic’s abnormally favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, with warm sea surface temperatures throughout its whole forecast track. The models are consistent with Beryl tracking west to west-northwest towards the Windward Islands, and it could track towards Jamaica at the end of the 5-day period.

In the intensity side of things, Beryl has a chance of rapidly intensifying, with the SHIPS index showing a 44% chance of increasing its current intensity by 65 knots in 72 hours. The current NHC forecast has Beryl intensifying into a hurricane by tomorrow early morning AST, and having a peak intensity of 110 mph by Monday as it moves near Barbados. It has been pointed out that their forecast could be conservative, as several of the intensity guidance models forecast Beryl to become a major hurricane.

Forecasted impacts

• Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area by Sunday night or Monday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible on Sunday.
• A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow in the Hurricane Watch area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
• Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands. This rainfall may produce localized flooding in vulnerable areas.
• Swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Stay tuned to your local meteorological office and to us as the Atlantic season progresses. You can check our live automated stream at:

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