Current Information

As of 18Z on July 21, 2024, Gaemi was located 17.6 degrees north, 129.9 degrees west, and was moving north-northeast at four mph. The

latest outlook on tropical storm Gaemi’s stats by the JTWC analyzed maximum winds of around 58 mph and a minimum central pressure of 991 millibars.

Current Warnings and Watches

The Central Weather Administration has not issued warnings or watches in Taiwan. Still, in the Philippines, PAGASA issued a Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal One, meaning that the island of Luzon will be little impacted. If PAGASA issued you a Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal One, please monitor additional advisories and inspect whether your house needs repair or reinforcements from the storm system.

Current Forecast

According to the cone forecast issued by the JTWC, Gaemi will curve and then make landfall in Taiwan by July 25th at midnight UTC, then move inwards to Fuzhou later on July 26th at midnight UTC.

Current Hazards

Tropical storm Gaemi will soon spread strong winds to the areas of Taiwan and Fuzhou and is expected to bring heavy rainfall there, making outside preparations difficult. Meanwhile, storm surges are expected to reach the Japanese islands of Ishigaki, Taketomi, Tarama, and Yonaguni, as well as the island of Taiwan, making them potentially life-threatening to those islands mentioned. Preparations should be completed by the time Gaemi lands in Taiwan by July 25th, 2024. Evacuate when directed by your officials, and stay tuned for updates about Gaemi’s status from your local weather agency. In the meantime, you can check our Force Thirteen’s live hurricane tracker here: https://www.youtube.com/live/0LO-JCqOMPo?si=fRmENlHWHpiX40P9.

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Replay all of the storms with our 2023 West Pacific Typhoon Season Animation here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzp_u6Kl3d0

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Franklin is expected to intensify after it leaves the Dominican Republic and passes the Turks and Caicos islands, where sea surface temperatures will improve. The storm may stall for a while and then move northwards and is expected to peak as a moderate hurricane.

Emily turned post-tropical earlier today, but there are signs that it could regenerate as it recurves northwards later this week.

Tropical Storm Gert was named yesterday and only lasted for a short time before weakening, and is not expected to linger for much longer. Another area of interest is located near Cape Verde and has a moderate chance of development as it moves westwards.

Hilary’s remnants persist over the western United States in the Eastern Pacific. Three areas of interest have low opportunities for development in the deep tropics, with the eastern system likely to cause large rainfall amounts over Costa Rica and Nicaragua regardless of development.

In the Western Pacific, an area of interest has a low chance of development and is expected to remain broad. The system will eventually head toward eastern Japan next week.

Watch the full video here: https://youtu.be/h7aTPdGRXmU

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Watch the full video update here: https://youtu.be/IN4aX8849wA

The post Typhoon Lan maintains strenght (strength) as it approaches Japan – August 13, 2023 Video Update appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Typhoon Lan strengthened rapidly in the last 24 hours, and could seriously affect the Ogasawara island chain with winds of over 100 miles per hour and heavy rainfall, which could reach 500mm. Rainfall from both of these storms are likely to cause widspread areas of 300mm accumulations. Lan could continue towards the mainland of Japan, including the Tokyo region, and could make landfall there as a significant typhoon.

Hurricane Dora continues to roll on through the Central Pacific, and is now located well to the south of Hawaii. Its winds are still at high end Category 3 range, and only slow weakening is expected. The storm is expected to pass south of Johnstone Atoll, and could strike Wake Island as a weak tropical storm.

Several areas of interest are also active, with three low chance AOIs in the next seven days. At least one of these systems is more likely to form later on in the forecast period.

Watch our full Tropical Weather Bulletin using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMtNItu2cV4

The post Khanun Reaches Kyushu, Lan a Typhoon, Dora Stays Strong – Tropical Weather Bulletin – August 9, 2023 appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Dora remains rampant, but thankfully far away from any land areas. The storm is a Category 4 with winds near 130 miles per hour sustained, and a pressure in the low 940s. The tiny storm has a formidable structure with annular characteristics, a thick eyewall, and a deep eye, and its visual appearance is outstanding. The storm is expected to pass well south of Hawaii and shouldn’t be a threat to any other areas.

To the east of Khanun, another typhoon is expected to develop this week, and could seriously affect the Ogasawara islands in the middle of the week. The storm could rapidly intensify and then stall near these islands, delivering up to 28 inches (700mm) of rainfall, and could then move towards Japan and make landfall somewhere near Tokyo.

Tropical Storm Eugene neared hurricane status earlier today, but is now expected to rapidly weaken as it starts to pull away from Baja California Sur. The storm is expected to be no more by the 48-hour mark.

Watch the full TWB video here: https://youtu.be/eYaWe_GYmLc

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Meanwhile, on the other side of the Pacific, Hurricane Dora may also be struggling, with its eye fading from view at the present time. The tiny storm peaked as a Category 4 yesterday and is now down to high end Category 2 status, with winds near 110mph. The storm is expected to gradually weaken and keep moving almost due west, passing well south of Hawaii and then running up against a brick wall as it nears the International Date Line next week. Behind Dora, another tropical storm is expected fairly soon and is likely to pass safely south of Baja California Sur, although residents there should remain vigilant.

Two tropical cyclones are possible in the next week in the Western Pacific aside from Khanun, with a storm likely to develop to its east near the Ogasawara islands, and could pose a threat to eastern Japan and the Tokyo region. Another system could form to the west of Guam.

Get the full picture on the tropics by watching today’s Tropical Weather Bulletin using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2el69z7lFE

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Another storm could branch out of Khanun’s influence to the east, and at present some models suggest that it could become a potent tropical storm on its own and affect southern or eastern Japan this weekend or early next week.

In the Eastern Pacific, compact Tropical Storm Dora is intensifying, and could reach hurricane status soon if the internal structure improves. The storm’s small size and current position is very favourable for rapid intensification as it moves out to sea. Behind Dora, another area of interest now has a half chance of becoming a tropical cyclone, with some models depicting a mature hurricane by early next week. The coast of Mexico could receive some difficult conditions from this potential storm, but it should largely remain at sea.

Watch our Tropical Weather Bulletin in full by using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIzXbjaaWtQ

The post Typhoon Khanun Expected to Stall This Week – Tropical Weather Bulletin – August 2nd appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Latest Information

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), on its’ 23:00 JST (14:00 UTC) update, has estimated the storm location at 27.7°N 131.8°E or about 315 kilometers (195 miles) south-southeast of Yakushima City, and 450 kilometers (280 miles) south-southeast of Kagoshima City in southern Kyushu. JMA estimates the 10-minute sustained wind to be 195 kph (105 kts / 120 mph), with gusts reaching up to 280 kph (150 kts / 175 mph). The minimum central pressure estimate of the storm was 910 millibars and the storm’s movement was north-northwestward at a speed of 15 kph (8 kt/9 mph).

Latest Advisories in Effect

An Emergency Typhoon Warning is in effect for:

• Southern Kyushu
• Satsuma Region
• Osumi Region
• Tanegashima
• and Yakushima Region.

A Typhoon Warning is in effect for:

• Southern Kyushu
• Miyazaki Southern Plains
• and the Amami Region.

A Gale Advisory is in effect for:

• Okinawa Islands
• Okinawa Main Islands
• Daito Jima Region
• Kume Jima Region
• Rest of the Kyushu Islands including Amami
• Entire Shikoku Island
• Kansai Region (Honshu Island)
• and the Chugoku Region (Honshu Island).

Advisories in Fukuoka and Kumamoto Prefectures are expected to be upgraded to an Emergency  Typhoon Warning on Sunday. Kochi Region in Shikoku and the rest of Kyushu Islands except western Oita are expected to be under a Typhoon Warning on Sunday.

For more details in your local area, please refer to your Prefecture Disaster Office or go to JMA website here.

What to Expect?

Strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rain are expected to be brought by the Violent Typhoon, as the JMA classifies it. Winds as strong as 195 kph (105 kt / 125 mph) are expected for Southern Kyushu and Amami Islands. Miyazaki Prefecture in western Kyushu is expected to experience winds up to 150 kph (80 kt / 90 mph.) Typhoon conditions are expected in eastern Honshu, and gale-force winds in Chugoku Region in Honshu and the entire Shikoku Island.

Rainfall totals on Sunday in southern Kyushu could reach up to 500 millimeters (20 inches.) In northern Kyushu, totals could still reach 300 millimeters (12 inches) and Shikoku Island up to 150 millimeters (6 inches). This amount of rain could cause widespread flooding, especially to the plains of southern Kyushu. Rivers overflowing are expected as the storm passes.

On Sunday evening, Nanmadol which is still a typhoon will pivot towards the northeast and move towards Honshu, still bringing winds up to 55 kph (30 kts / 35 mph) and rainfall totals up to 100 millimeters (4 inches) enough to inundate some areas in the region.

Heed all orders from your local authorities and get regular updates from the JMA. You can also watch Force Thirteen Automated Streaming Service here:

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Current Information

As of 6pm Japan Standard Time, Hinnamnor is currently located at 21.5 degrees north, 125.5 degrees east, about 370 kilometers (230 nautical miles) to the south of Miyakojima. It currently has 10-minute winds of 195 kph (120 mph), with gusts up to 280 kph (175 mph), and a minimum central pressure of 920 hPa, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center estimated Hinnamnor to have 1-minute sustained winds of 250 kph (155 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 921 hPa. It is currently moving south at 13 kph (8 mph).

Current Warnings

Currently, there is a Gale Advisory for Ishigaki, Yonaguni, and the Daito Islands, a Signal #1 warning for Batanes and the Babuyan Islands in the Philippines, and a Strong Wind Advisory for the entirety of Taiwan. Moreover, the island of Ishigaki is under a High Wave Advisory, heavy rain and flood advisories. The island of Okinawa is under a Storm Surge Advisory.

For up to date storm information, please check products issued by your local meteorological agency.

Current forecast

According to the JMA, Hinnamnor is expected to intensify slightly before weakening as it remains almost stationary due to weak steering flow until Saturday, where it’ll move north along the periphery of a mid-level subtropical high, and reintensify once again to a peak forecast intensity of 185 kph (115 mph). The typhoon will then move northeastwards as it gets influenced by the mid-latitude westerlies while weakening again.

Expected Threats

As Hinnamnor becomes nearly stationary, the Batanes Islands will continue to get hit with moderate to heavy rainfall, with the Babuyan Islands expected to be affected with the same hazard tomorrow. Under those conditions, isolated to scattered flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps, and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall. It is expected to continue till Saturday. The storm is also forecast to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and may bring rainfall to the western section of Luzon starting tomorrow.

As the typhoon moves north on Saturday, the Sakishima Islands are expected to observe maximum winds of 144-180 kph, and 10-meter-high waves generated by Hinnamnor. People are urged to remain on the alert for gale-force winds and high waves, and to stay updated on evacuation notices and other information about the typhoon.

Stay tuned to your local meteorological office and to us here at Force Thirteen, and stay safe from this storm if you are in the path. We will continue to give updates on the storm as it progresses.

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