Cyclone Dikeledi made landfall in the Nampula province of Mozambique at around 16:00 CAT, today, January 13, 2025 (according to observations from the Force Thirteen team) with a pressure of 975mb and a wind speed of 100mph(160km/h). It is now moving south-south-west and will start to change to a southeasterly direction at 8 AM or so La Reunion time on Tuesday, where it is likely to pass to the south of Madagascar.

Rainfall Accumulation Estimates

Cyclone Dikeledi can be expected to bring around 250mm of rain to areas of the Mozambique coast, whilst showers and thunderstorms associated with the storm could produce up to 350mm in areas of Western Madagascar as the storm moves southeast. As anticipated, the main hazard with the storm is rainfall, which could produce flash floods and mudslides.

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Current Warnings

Météo Madagascar currently has heavy rain, strong wind, and heavy swell warnings in place for areas across the northwestern and northeastern parts of the coast with the heavy swell warning stretching all the way down to the western coast.

Rainfall

Cyclone Dikeledi can be expected to bring 10 inches and above to the northern coast of Madagascar and up to 6 inches or so once it reaches the northwestern coast of Mozambique.

Current Hazards:

Cyclone Dikeledi’s main hazards will be rough seas, strong winds, and heavy rainfall over the next couple of days as it continues its path over Madagascar into the Mozambique channel.

Check out our latest full update on Cyclone Dikeledi using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XnMmDUT6MJ8

The post Cyclone Dikeledi Moves Towards Northern Madagascar appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Watch our full update on this system here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-vnejoyA4w

The post Cyclone threat increasing for Madagascar and Mauritius appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Regardless of the forecast, this storm is forecast to deliver very high amounts of rainfall to the entire region, causing major flooding concerns after the storm already passed through this area last week. Up to 24 inches (600mm) of rainfall are expected in the landfall area near Quelimane, and large areas of 10 inches (250mm) of rainfall extending well inland through Malawi, and still significant amounts extending into Zimbabwe, Zambia, and the rest of Madagascar. Out at sea where the storm is expected to move slowly before landfall, rainfall amounts could reach 50 inches. Freddy has maintained tropical cyclone status for approximately 26 days so far, and is likely to dethrone Hurricane John later next week if it retains tropical cyclone status until Sunday.

Watch our full update on Cyclone Freddy here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oVpBdXSXqgM

The post Historic Cyclone Freddy Continues Journey Off Coast of Madagascar – Video Update – March 7, 2023 appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy is quickly approaching Madagascar, posing a serious threat to the country’s Central and Southernmost regions.

Latest Information

On the latest Meteo France bulletin, Freddy was last located at 20.7S 49.5E, or about 100 kilometers (62 miles) off the Madagascar coast.

The agency estimated the storm to have 10-minute maximum sustained winds of 150 kph (80 knots / 90 mph) with a minimum central pressure of 965 hectopascals.

The cyclone is moving towards west-southwest at a speed of 28 kph (15 knots / 17 kph).

Current Warnings

Red Cyclone Warning is hoisted over the regions of:

• Amoron’i Mania
• Matsiatra Ambony
• Ihorombe
• Fitovinany
• Vatovavy
• Southern Districts of Atsinanana (Antanambao Manampontsy, Vatomandry, Marolambo, Mahanoro)

Yellow Cyclone Warning is placed over the regions of:

• Vakinankaratra
• Atsimo-Atsinanana
• Remainder of Atsinanana
• Southernmost District of Alaotra-Mangoro (Anosibe An’ala)
• Southern Districts of Menabe (Morondava, Mahabo, Manja)
• Northern Districts of Atsimo-Andrefana (Beroroha, Morombe, Ankazoabo, Toliera II and Sakaraha

Green Cyclone Warning is placed over the regions of:

• Remainder of Menabe
• Itasy
• Analamanga, including Antananarivo
• Southern District of Alaotra-Mangoro (Moramanga)

Cyclone Risks

Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy is forecast to make landfall over Madagascar shortly after the release of this article. The storm then will move over the island nation and enter the Mozambique channel on Wednesday afternoon. Significant wind, and flood damage, and storm surge over coastal areas under a cyclone warning are expected.

Local authorities in Mozambique, meanwhile, issued warnings on expected heavy rains for the Zambesi River as the cyclone is forecast to make landfall in Mozambique later next week, likely as a strong tropical storm or a lower-end category 1 equivalent cyclone. The Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology is expected to raise cyclone warning once Cyclone Freddy comes out of the Mozambique Channel.

If the local officials advised you to evacuate in preparation for the storm, please heed their advice. You can always check their social media sites for and follow developments from us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube as the storm approaches land.

The post Furious Freddy to Make Landfall in Madagascar appeared first on Force Thirteen.

This January has been a fairly active month compared to climatology in cyclone activity, with cyclone development spreading across all three Southern Hemisphere basins: Southwest Indian Ocean, Australian Region, and the South Pacific.

Southwest Indian Ocean

The Southwest Indian Ocean saw the formation of one cyclone, Cyclone Eloise.

Eloise formed on January 14 well to the east of Madagascar, eventually impacting the island as a mid-strength tropical storm.

After clearing the island, Eloise quickly strengthened on its approach to Mozambique, peaking as a Category 2 equivalent storm as it made landfall in Beira with 1-minute winds near 105 mph and 10 minute winds near 90 mph.

Eloise weakened as it moved inland over Africa, dissipating on January 25.

Eloise caused severe damage in Mozambique, with at least 21 deaths reported.

Weather stations in Beira recorded 25cm (10 inches) of rain within 24 hours.

Several rivers burst their banks, causing roads to become submerged in floodwaters.

Additionally, Eloise caused damage and flooding to South Africa, Eswatini, and Zimbabwe, as it weakened across southern Africa.

Australian Region

In the Australian Region, activity was unusually high with the JTWC designating six cyclones: Imogen, Joshua, Kimi, Lucas, 08U, and 12U.

The first four were also classified by the Bureau of Meteorology, the last two being tropical lows by their estimates.

The most notable storms this month in the Australian Basin were Kimi, Lucas and 12U.

With a lifespan ranging from the 16th to the 19th of January, Kimi took a short but unpredictable track in the middle of the month, peaking with both 1 and 10-minute winds of 65 mph.

Despite its proximity to land, no impacts have been reported.

Lucas was the strongest storm to form in the Australian basin this month, peaking at 75 mph in 1-minute winds and 70 mph in 10-minute winds over the South Pacific.

The cyclone formed on January 25, and crossed over into the South Pacific basin on February 1.

Shortly thereafter, Lucas made landfall over New Caledonia as a weakened storm, dissipating on February 3.

Damages are currently unknown, and no deaths have been reported as a result of Lucas.

12U was a very unusual storm that took a winding track along the northern coastline of West Australia, forming over land on January 30 and staying over it for 5 days while maintaining its strength as a tropical depression.

It finally attained tropical storm strength as it approached the coastline and peaked as a 40 mph storm, however it began extratropical transition shortly thereafter and dissipated on February 5.

South Pacific

For the South Pacific Basin, activity was limited to two systems, Ana and Bina.

Ana formed on January 26 northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu, and began to gradually strengthen.

After several days, Ana made landfall over Viti Levu, Fiji as a Category 1 storm on the SSHWS and a Category 3 on the Australian scale, peaking with 75 mph winds in both scales.

After clearing Fiji, Ana weakened significantly, dissipating on February 3.

Damages from Ana are unknown, with one person confirmed dead and five others still missing as of February 7.

Bina also took a similar track to Ana from January 29-31, with its remnants making landfall just after its dissipation.

Bina peaked with 10-minute winds of 40 mph and 1 minute winds of 50 mph. No significant impacts to land were reported as a result of Bina.

Force Thirteen produces regular updates on our Twitter page and YouTube channel.
Our Cyclone Monitoring Homepage also provides updated graphics and info on cyclones around the world.

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