Super Typhoon Ragasa (PAGASA: Nando) is currently targeting one of the Babuyan Islands north of the Philippines today at 7:00 a.m. PHT.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is closely monitoring Ragasa’s path as it is expected to make landfall in one of the Babuyan Islands, while also issuing critical warnings for the coastlines of China and Vietnam.

Current Information

As of 20Z today, Ragasa was located at 245 km East of Calayan, Philippines, and was moving west-northwestward at 20 km/h.

The latest outlook from the Philippines’ TCB states supported maximum winds of 250 km/h and a central pressure of 915 hPa.

Current Warnings and Watches

A TCWS Warning No. 5 is in effect for the northern portions of the Babuyan Islands, while the rest of the Babuyan Islands, the north portion of the Cagayan mainland, and the southeastern portion of the Batanes are under a TCWS No. 4.

Meanwhile, there may be potential warnings for the coastal areas of China and Vietnam in the next update.

If you live in the affected portions stated above, it is highly recommended to monitor additional warnings or watches issued by your local weather service within your area.

Current Forecast

According to the cone forecast issued by the JTWC as of 21Z, Ragasa will cross the Luzon Strait while expected to make landfall in the Babuyan Islands.

By 18Z on Wednesday, Ragasa will strike the Zhanjiang peninsula and then dissipate after reaching the Vietnamese coast by this Friday.

Current Hazards

From the latest bulletin issued by the Philippines’ Tropical Cyclone Board, winds generated by Super Typhoon Ragasa may be slightly stronger in coastal and upland/mountainous areas, which will cause significant damage to the affected areas of the Babuyan Islands, the Batanes, and the northern portions of the Cagayan mainland.

Additionally, heavy rainfall will also be expected from this typhoon, as more than 200 mm of rain will cause widespread incidents of severe flooding and landslides in the affected portions.

Lastly, the southwest monsoon and the trough of Ragasa will bring gusts to the Luzon areas today and tomorrow.

If possible, evacuate when directed by officials, and stay tuned to your local weather service or Force Thirteen for updates.

The post Super Typhoon Ragasa (Nando) Barrels Towards the Babuyan Claro Island, Forcasted to Aim For China and Vietnam appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Current Information

As of 18Z on July 21, 2024, Gaemi was located 17.6 degrees north, 129.9 degrees west, and was moving north-northeast at four mph. The

latest outlook on tropical storm Gaemi’s stats by the JTWC analyzed maximum winds of around 58 mph and a minimum central pressure of 991 millibars.

Current Warnings and Watches

The Central Weather Administration has not issued warnings or watches in Taiwan. Still, in the Philippines, PAGASA issued a Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal One, meaning that the island of Luzon will be little impacted. If PAGASA issued you a Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal One, please monitor additional advisories and inspect whether your house needs repair or reinforcements from the storm system.

Current Forecast

According to the cone forecast issued by the JTWC, Gaemi will curve and then make landfall in Taiwan by July 25th at midnight UTC, then move inwards to Fuzhou later on July 26th at midnight UTC.

Current Hazards

Tropical storm Gaemi will soon spread strong winds to the areas of Taiwan and Fuzhou and is expected to bring heavy rainfall there, making outside preparations difficult. Meanwhile, storm surges are expected to reach the Japanese islands of Ishigaki, Taketomi, Tarama, and Yonaguni, as well as the island of Taiwan, making them potentially life-threatening to those islands mentioned. Preparations should be completed by the time Gaemi lands in Taiwan by July 25th, 2024. Evacuate when directed by your officials, and stay tuned for updates about Gaemi’s status from your local weather agency. In the meantime, you can check our Force Thirteen’s live hurricane tracker here: https://www.youtube.com/live/0LO-JCqOMPo?si=fRmENlHWHpiX40P9.

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Replay all of the storms with our 2023 West Pacific Typhoon Season Animation here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzp_u6Kl3d0

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Watch our latest update on Kabavan (Jelawat) using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rs08prvEt2o&t

The post Tropical Storm Kabayan (Jelawat) Forecast to Make Landfall in the Philippines Tonight – Video Update appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Hurricane Idalia made landfall on Wednesday morning local time in western Florida, near Keaton Beach, as a strong Category 3. The storm’s catastrophic surge devastated some of the coastal communities in the area, and flooding concerns continue as the weakening storm continues through the Carolinas tonight.

Hurricane Franklin is still active near Bermuda, with tropical storm winds straddling the island.

Tropical Storms Haikui and Kirogi are both active in the Western Pacific, with the former likely to impact Taiwan and eastern China with more precipitation in that area. Rainfall of up to 400mm is likely across the mountains of Taiwan and in eastern China, with significant strengthening possible before it reaches land.

Elsewhere, other areas of interest could form later this week into the weekend in the Atlantic and Western Pacific.

Watch our full Tropical Weather Bulletin using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxtrxOpZSc4

The post Category 5 Typhoon Saola headed for Hong Kong – Tropical Weather Bulletin – August 31, 2023 appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Current information

As of 8:00 pm CST (12:00 UTC), Doksuri is located at 21.8 degrees north, 119.1 degrees east, or about 360 km southeast of Xiamen, Fujian. The Japan Meteorological Agency has Doksuri with 10-minute sustained winds of 150 km/h (90 mph), with gusts of 210 km/h (130 mph), and a central pressure of 955 millibars. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center estimated Doksuri to have 1-minute sustained winds of 195 km/h (120 mph), which is equivalent to a Category 3 system on the SSHWS. The storm is moving north-northwest at 13 km/h (8 mph).

Force Thirteen currently has Doksuri with 1-minute sustained winds of 200 km/h (125 mph), which is slightly higher than the JTWC estimate, and a central pressure of 939 millibars. The wind estimate is supported by the range of satellite estimates and radar velocity (>60m/s at 3km) reported from Taiwan and Xiamen radars.

Current warnings

The China Meteorological Administration has issued the following warnings:

• Red Typhoon Warning for Zhangzhou & Xiamen, Fujian;
• Orange Typhoon Warning for Jieyang & Chaozhou, Guangdong, and Quanzhou, Fujian;
• Yellow Typhoon Warning for Wenzhou & Ningde, Fujian, and Fuzhou, Zhejiang; and
• Blue Typhoon Warning for Quzhou, Zhejiang, Sanming, Fujian, Pudong New District, Shanghai, and the entirety of Jiangxi.

The Hong Kong Observatory and the Macau Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau have hoisted their Standby Signal No. 1 for their respective regions, with higher signals unlikely to be raised.

The Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan has issued typhoon warnings in Nantou, Chiayi, Pingtung, Changhua, Penghu, Taitung, Hualien, Miaoli, Kinmen, & Yunli counties, and in Chiayi, Tainan and Kaoshiung City.

Current forecast

Although abysmal on radar imagery, with a 6 nautical mile pinhole eye embedded within a moat of clear air and a secondary eyewall, the system is under a favorable environment of 31 degrees Celsius sea surface temperatures, and even more warmer towards the coast of China due to coastal downwelling induced by the system, along with low wind shear, robust poleward and strong equatorward outflow. It will continue its reintensification before it strikes Xiamen in the next 12–18 hours, with the current JTWC forecast calling for a Category 4 system to hit the area, although a slightly stronger system cannot be ruled out if the eyewall replacement cycle currently ongoing on the system can fully complete. After it hits land, it is expected to weaken quickly, and dissipate by Saturday.

Current hazards

• Rain: Doksuri will continue to drop heavy rainfall across China, Taiwan and the Philippines, with 250–300mm of rainfall forecast to drop in southeastern portions of Fujian, Zhejiang, and Taiwan. In the Philippines, the southwest monsoon enhanced by Doksuri will continue to bring occasional to monsoonal rains over the western portion of Luzon in the next three days.
• Wind: In parts of southern Fujian and the coast, winds may reach hurricane-force as Doksuri approaches, with the rest of Fujian, Zhejiang and the eastern part of Guangdong experiencing storm-force winds.

Current situation in the Philippines

Doksuri, known in the Philippines as Egay, has continued to drop large amounts of rainfall in northern Luzon. The weather station in Baguio has recorded 265mm of rainfall over the past 24 hours, followed by Sinait, Ilocos Sur with 245mm, and Laoag, Ilocos Norte with 150mm. These amounts were likely exacerbated by the mountainous terrain in the area. 6 people were reported dead, 11 were injured, and more than 400,000 affected, according to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council.

Down south, the southwest monsoon enhanced by the storm has also dropped a significant amount of rain, with a weather station in Subic Bay recording 164mm of rainfall. The capital, Manila, has experienced 47mm of rainfall over the past 24 hours. The continuous rainfall led to the Marikina River hitting its second alarm of 16 meters, but has now decreased below alarm levels.

The system continues to be a threat to land, and so preparations in China must be nearing completion. Keep updated with your local officials and to us as the system progresses.

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Current information

As of 11:00 pm PHT (15:00 UTC), Doksuri is located at 19.5 degrees north, 120.6 degrees east, or about 120 km west-northwest of Calayan, Cagayan. The Japan Meteorological Agency has estimated Doksuri to have 10-minute winds of 160 km/h (100 mph), with gusts of 220 km/h (140 mph), and a central pressure of 950 millibars. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has Doksuri with 1-minute sustained winds of 175 km/h (110 mph), making the storm a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. It is currently moving northwestward at 9 km/h (6 mph).

Force Thirteen has estimated the storm to have winds of 160 km/h (100 mph), which is lower than the current JTWC estimate, and a central pressure of 954 millibars.

Current warnings

The PAGASA has currently hoisted the following Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS):

• TCWS #3 for the northwestern portion of Ilocos Norte (Bangui, Pagudpud, Burgos, Pasuquin);
• TCWS #2 for Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Kalinga, Abra, the rest of Ilocos Norte, Apayao, the northern and central portion of Ilocos Sur (Gregorio del Pilar, Magsingal, San Esteban, Banayoyo, Burgos, City of Candon, Santa Lucia, Santiago, San Vicente, Santa Catalina, Lidlidda, Nagbukel, Sinait, Suyo, Sigay, San Ildefonso, Galimuyod, Quirino, City of Vigan, San Emilio, Cabugao, Caoayan, San Juan, Santa, Bantay, Santo Domingo, Santa Cruz, Santa Maria, Narvacan, Salcedo, Tagudin, Cervantes), the western portion of Mountain Province (Besao, Sagada, Bontoc, Sadanga, Tadian, Sabangan, Bauko), and Batanes; and
• TCWS #1 for Isabela, the rest of Mountain Province, Ifugao, Zambales, Pangasinan, Benguet, La Union, Nueva Vizcaya, the rest of Ilocos Sur, Quirino, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga, the northern portion of Bataan (Morong, Samal, Orani, Hermosa, Dinalupihan) and the northern portion of Bulacan (Hagonoy, Doña Remedios Trinidad, Paombong, City of Malolos, Plaridel, Guiguinto, Pandi, Bustos, Angat, Calumpit, Pulilan, Baliuag, San Rafael, San Ildefonso, San Miguel).

The Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan has issued typhoon warnings for Nantou, Chiayi, Pingtung, Changhua, Penghu, Taitung, Hualien and Yunlin counties, along with Chiayi, Tainan and Kaoshiung City.

The China Meteorological Administration has issued the following warnings:

• Orange Typhoon Warning for Shantou, Guangdong;
• Yellow Typhoon Warning for Zhangzhou, Xiamen, Quanzhou, Fuzhou and Ningde, Fujian, and Jieyang City, Guangdong; and
• Blue Typhoon Warning for Shanwei and Meizhou, Guangdong, and Wenzhou, Zheijang.

Current forecast

As a microwave pass showed, Doksuri’s eye is now weak and eroding, but as it moves away from Luzon, there is a small window of reintensification with an overall favorable environment, along with high oceanic heat content. The current JTWC forecast has the storm reintensifying into major typhoon status, before it interacts with the geography of Taiwan. As it moves north-northwestward, the storm will likely hit southern China as a weak typhoon by Friday, before dissipating shortly after.

Current hazards

• Rain: Doksuri is forecast to continue dropping 100-200mm of rainfall on Ilocos Norte, the northern portions of Ilocos Sur and Abra. Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are highly likely especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days. The Southwest Monsoon enhanced by the storm will continue to bring occasional to monsoon rains over the western portions of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon in the next three days. Numerous rainfall warnings are also currently in effect in Taiwan.
• Wind: Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds may be experienced within the areas under Wind Signal No. 3. Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 2 is in effect, and minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are also possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No.1 is hoisted. The enhanced Southwest Monsoon will continue to bring gusty conditions over Luzon and parts of Visayas over the next 3 days.
• Storm surge: There is a moderate to high risk of storm surge which may cause flooding in the low-lying and exposed coastal areas of Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, and extreme northern portion of Ilocos Sur. Maximum surge heights may reach 3.0 m in most of the warning areas.

Current situation

Doksuri has already dropped more than 200mm of rainfall on some areas in northern Luzon. An automated weather station (AWS) in Baguio has already recorded 485mm of rainfall over the past 24 hours, followed by Laoag, Ilocos Norte with 410mm, and Sinait, Ilocos Sur with 397mm. These amounts were likely exacerbated by the mountainous terrains around the area. The AWS in Itbayat, Batanes has seen lesser rainfall, with 115mm recorded, along with Tuguegarao with 101mm.

According local media, 6 deaths have been reported in parts of Benguet, Mountain Province and Baguio. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) are still verifying the information, and also reported 2 were injured, with more than 180,000 people affected by the storm.

The storm continues to drop heavy rainfall, and we hope you are safe from this storm. Stay tuned to us and your local officials as the storm progresses.

The post Typhoon Doksuri slows down, dumping heavy rainfall in Philippines appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Current information

As of 8:00 pm PHT (12:00 UTC), Doksuri is currently located at 16.5 degrees north, 125.8 degrees east, or about 365 km east of Casiguran, Aurora. The Japan Meteorological Agency has Doksuri with 10-minute sustained winds of 170 km/h (100 mph), gusts up to 240 km/h (150 mph), and a central pressure of 940 millibars. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has estimated the storm with 1-minute sustained winds of 220 km/h (140 mph), making it a Category 4-equivalent typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The storm is currently moving north-northwest at 17 km/h (10 mph).

Force Thirteen currently estimates Doksuri with 1-minute sustained winds of 230 km/h (145 mph), which is slightly higher than the JTWC’s estimate, and a central pressure of 934 millibars.

Current warnings

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued the following wind signals as Doksuri nears the country:

• Signal 3 warnings for Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Peñablanca, Baggao, Gattaran, and Lal-lo, Cagayan; Divilacan and Maconacon, Isabela;
• Signal 2 warnings for Batanes, Babuyan Islands, the rest of mainland Cagayan, the rest of Isabela, Quirino, the northern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Kasibu, Quezon, Diadi, Bagabag, Ambaguio, Villaverde, Solano, Bayombong), Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, the northern portion of Benguet (Bakun, Mankayan, Buguias, Kabayan, Kibungan), Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and the northern and central portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao);
• Signal 1 warnings for the rest of mainland Luzon, central and eastern portions of Romblon (Banton, Corcuera, Romblon, Magdiwang, Cajidiocan, San Fernando), Northern Samar, the northern and central portions of Samar (Almagro, Tagapul-An, Santo Niño, Daram, Zumarraga, Villareal, Talalora, Hinabangan, Calbiga, Pinabacdao, Paranas, Motiong, San Sebastian, Jiabong, City of Catbalogan, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao, San Jorge, Tarangnan, Gandara, Pagsanghan, Santa Margarita, Calbayog City), the northern and central portions of Eastern Samar (City of Borongan, San Julian, Sulat, Taft, Can-Avid, Oras, Arteche, Jipapad, Dolores, San Policarpo, Maslog), and Biliran.

PAGASA has also issued storm surge warnings for Batanes, Isabela, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte and the extreme northern portion of Ilocos Sur (Cabugao, Magsingal, San Juan (Lapog), Simait) which can expect 2.1 – 3.0 meters of storm surge. The coasts of Maconacon, Isabela and Peñablanca, Cagayan are expected to get more than 3 meters of storm surge.

Current forecast

Doksuri is entering an eyewall replacement cycle, as evidenced by a microwave pass showing dry air over the southeastern quadrant of the system. The current JTWC forecast has the storm passing near the tip of Cagayan and traverse the Luzon Strait, which the Babuyan Group of Islands and Batanes are located, on Tuesday into Wednesday local time. The exact intensity of the system is uncertain as it will undergo the aforementioned cycle, but will likely remain a major typhoon as it passes through the islands.

As it continues northwestwards under the influence of a deep-layered subtropical ridge over Japan, it’s expected to encounter unfavorable conditions with decreasing sea surface temperatures and land friction, and make landfall near Xiamen, China as a high-end Category 1 typhoon by Thursday. The system is expected to weaken significantly as it turns north and dissipate by Saturday.

Current hazards

• Rain: Doksuri is forecast to drop above 200 millimeters of rainfall as it moves near Batanes, Babuyan Islands, the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Apayao, and Abra on Tuesday night into Wednesday. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are highly likely especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days. The southwest monsoon, currently being enhanced by the system, will continue to bring occasional to monsoon rains over the western portions of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Visayas in the next three days.
• Wind: Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds may be experienced within the areas under Wind Signal No. 3. Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 2 are in effect, and minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are also possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No.1 is hoisted. The current PAGASA forecast shows that the highest wind signal that may be hoisted will be Wind Signal No. 4 or 5 (e.g., typhoon-force wind threat). Doksuri and the enhanced southwest monsoon will continue to bring gusty conditions over Luzon, Visayas and portions of Mindanao over the next 3 days.
• Storm surge: There is a high risk of storm surge which may cause flooding in the low-lying and exposed coastal areas of of Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, Ilocos Norte, and the extreme northern portion of Ilocos Sur. Maximum surge heights may reach 2.0 m in most of the warning areas, with some localities exceeding 2.0 m surge heights.

Doksuri is continuing to approach the country, and as such, preparations should be nearing completion. Homes should be reinforced, and supplies must be replenished. Evacuate if the local officials have said to do so, and stay updated with your local PRSD. Stay tuned to us as well as we continue to cover the system’s progress.

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In the Southwest Indian Ocean, an area of interest currently located near the equator could develop near the end of the week and could become a potent late-season cyclone next week. In the long-range models, developments in the Banda Sea and Bay of Bengal cannot be ruled out next week.

Watch our full Tropical Weather Bulletin using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VTUXcB4MQj4

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In the Philippines, Tropical Storm Amang made landfall overnight and has since weakened a tropical depression, with convection only popping up in spurts. Locally high rainfall is likely in some areas, but in general rainfall will be lower than normally seen in tropical cyclones.

Elsewhere, an area of interest could develop near the central and eastern Micronesian islands as it gradually turns northwards.

Watch our full Tropical Weather Bulletin here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxNgVMLLwrw

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