tropical storm Archives - Force Thirteen

Cyclone Dikeledi Makes landfall in Mozambique as a Category 2

Force Thirteen — Mon, 13 Jan 2025 18:51:05 +0000

Overview

Cyclone Dikeledi made landfall in the Nampula province of Mozambique at around 16:00 CAT, today, January 13, 2025 (according to observations from the Force Thirteen team) with a pressure of 975mb and a wind speed of 100mph(160km/h). It is now moving south-south-west and will start to change to a southeasterly direction at 8 AM or so La Reunion time on Tuesday, where it is likely to pass to the south of Madagascar.

Cyclone Dikeledi is forecast to make a southeasterly turn this evening, with the storm likely to stay in the Gulf of Madagascar. However, shower and thundershower activity associated with Dikeledi could produce heavy rainfall across portions of Western Madagascar.

Rainfall Accumulation Estimates

Cyclone Dikeledi can be expected to bring around 250mm of rain to areas of the Mozambique coast, whilst showers and thunderstorms associated with the storm could produce up to 350mm in areas of Western Madagascar as the storm moves southeast. As anticipated, the main hazard with the storm is rainfall, which could produce flash floods and mudslides.

Latest rainfall graphic from Force Thirteen, showing potential for 250 to 350mm of rainfall across Madagascar and Mozambique. (Yellow – 250mm, Red – 350mm.)

Stay up to date with the latest from Force Thirteen by visiting our Youtube channel, linked here!

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Cyclone Dikeledi Moves Towards Northern Madagascar

Force Thirteen — Fri, 10 Jan 2025 16:47:45 +0000

Cyclone Dikeledi is currently heading in a westerly direction towards the Northern coast/tip of Madagascar where it will drop 250mm+ of rain as it passes by.

Current Warnings

Météo Madagascar currently has heavy rain, strong wind, and heavy swell warnings in place for areas across the northwestern and northeastern parts of the coast with the heavy swell warning stretching all the way down to the western coast.

Rainfall

Cyclone Dikeledi can be expected to bring 10 inches and above to the northern coast of Madagascar and up to 6 inches or so once it reaches the northwestern coast of Mozambique.

Current Hazards:

Cyclone Dikeledi’s main hazards will be rough seas, strong winds, and heavy rainfall over the next couple of days as it continues its path over Madagascar into the Mozambique channel.

Check out our latest full update on Cyclone Dikeledi using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XnMmDUT6MJ8

Current Meteo France forecast cone for Cyclone Dikeledi at time of article release.

Current forecast rainfall over portions of Madagascar as Cyclone Dikeledi progresses westward.

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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Animation Released!

Force Thirteen — Sat, 04 Jan 2025 23:26:36 +0000

After a long, record-breaking, and destructive hurricane season, the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Animation has finally arrived. The 2024 season was the second-costliest tropical cyclone season in history, due in part to extremely powerful damaging storms, like Helene, which became the third-costliest hurricane ever, Milton, one of the strongest hurricanes in the Atlantic basin by both wind speed and barometric pressure. Beryl became both the earliest Category 4 and Category 5 hurricane on record, beating Dennis and Emily of 2005, respectively. Finally, Debby, albeit a much weaker storm in comparison to the previously mentioned storms, became Canada’s costliest tropical cyclone on record as it brought extreme flooding to Quebec during its extratropical phase, beating Fiona of 2022.

Watch our animation of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MM86Ghca5RQ

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Cyclone threat increasing for Madagascar and Mauritius

Force Thirteen — Mon, 25 Mar 2024 13:20:13 +0000

A tropical disturbance continues to build up off the coast of northern Madagascar, and is expected to ramp up in intensity later this week. The system is already producing large amounts of rain, and that is set to continue as the storm deepens. Forecasts call for potentially a Category 3 peak as it moves very slowly near Madagascar, before making for the Mascarene islands near the end of the week and swiping Mauritius and Réunion. Whilst confidence in the forecast is increasing, there is still a fair amount of wriggle room, especially with regards to timing, and some model scenarios still put the storm over or even to the west of Madagascar. Suffice to say, rapid intensification is likely to occur at some point, and a recurvature to the southeast is also likely later on. This is likely to put the Mascarene islands at risk of strong cyclonic winds and high rainfall.

Watch our full update on this system here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-vnejoyA4w

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Cyclone Eleanor Forecast to Rapidly Intensify as it Approaches Mauritius (Video Update)

Force Thirteen — Tue, 20 Feb 2024 18:42:17 +0000

Cyclone Eleanor is posed to threaten Mauritius this week, as the storm expected to intensify as it nears the island nation later this week. Eleanor will likely make a close pass to Mauritius. Catch the latest on Cyclone Eleanor with a video update from our team here:

Watch Here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XYR9ynD6CU

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2023 Pacific Typhoon Season Animation Released

Force Thirteen — Sat, 03 Feb 2024 23:49:43 +0000

The 2023 Pacific Typhoon Season was another below-average season, namely the fourth-consecutive season to have a below average number of storms despite the El Niño. Although it still saw many storms dealing a lot of damage to countries like the Philippines, Vietnam, China and more. Within the 2023 Pacific Typhoon Season, notable and well-known storms were Mawar (Betty), Doksuri (Egay), Saola (Goring) and Bolaven. Super Typhoon Doksuri caused devastating damage to affected countries, adding up to $15.5 billion in damages and caused 139 casualties, which made it the deadliest and costliest storm of the season.

Replay all of the storms with our 2023 West Pacific Typhoon Season Animation here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzp_u6Kl3d0

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Watch Live Coverage of Cyclone Belal on our Youtube Page!

Force Thirteen — Sun, 14 Jan 2024 16:58:11 +0000

Cyclone Belal continues to intensify, and is now a Category 2 on the Saffir Simpson Scale as it draws closer to the island of Réunion in the southwest Indian Ocean. The storm is developing a decent eye and winds are now near 100 miles per hour (160kph), and these winds may affect the islands especially on Monday. Rainfall amounts are also expected to become serious, with up to 500mm possible on the island of Réunion. Later on in the forecast, the track of Belal will become more uncertain, with the potential for the storm to stall completely or even turn back towards the islands.

Force Thirteen is live and covering Belal on our Youtube page at release of this post. Watch our coverage here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1quCNPSseQ

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Track of Cyclone Mocha (Video)

Force Thirteen — Tue, 09 Jan 2024 22:44:04 +0000

Cyclone Mocha was a very destructive Category 5 equivalent cyclone in the Bay of Bengal in May of 2023. Mocha made landfall as a Category 4 equivalent just north of Sittwe, Myanmar, causing severe damage. Cyclone Mocha was, in addition, the first Category 5 storm in the North Indian Ocean basin since Cyclone Amphan of May 2020. Watch our full track animation for Cyclone Mocha using the link below!

Watch Here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLmXHzft-Q4

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Tropical Storm Kabayan (Jelawat) Forecast to Make Landfall in the Philippines Tonight – Video Update

Force Thirteen — Sun, 17 Dec 2023 17:19:13 +0000

A late season tropical storm is lining up for landfall on the southern Philippines tonight. Tropical storm Jelawat, known locally as tropical storm Kabayan is approaching the coastline as a strengthening storm tonight. Widespread heavy and locally intense rainfall is expected from this storm, with signal one warnings already in place to cover the damaging wind threat. Kabayan will then move into the South China Sea where some intensification is possible.

Watch our latest update on Kabavan (Jelawat) using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rs08prvEt2o&t

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Developing Cyclone Headed for Eastern India – December 2, 2023

Force Thirteen — Sat, 02 Dec 2023 00:29:15 +0000

A tropical disturbance that we’ve been monitoring for several days is finally coming together, and is likely to become a tropical cyclone later today. By the end of the weekend, the storm is likely to make landfall near or to the north of Chennai, before pulling inland and turning northwards, where it will die out fairly quickly. Before it strikes, winds within the storm could reach 60 miles per hour (100kph), and rainfall totals could reach 14 inches (350mm) near the western and southern sides of the storm’s core.

In the South Pacific, another tropical disturbance is starting to take shape as it heads towards the Solomon Islands. The system is likely to quickly develop into a tropical cyclone, and strengthen further before pulling away into the Coral Sea. It is possible that this potential storm could reach hurricane strength whilst still over some of the islands. At the moment, models are supportive of further and potentially rapid strengthening in the Coral Sea, towards Category 3 status next week. The late part of the forecast remains very uncertain, but at the moment storm impacts cannot be ruled out anywhere from Mackay to Sydney, and for New Caledonia.

Watch our full Tropical Weather Bulletin using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5VgfYEjA8I

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