Watch our animation of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MM86Ghca5RQ

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Replay all of the storms with our 2023 West Pacific Typhoon Season Animation here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzp_u6Kl3d0

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Watch Here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLmXHzft-Q4

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Watch Here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kz1h6XPtmVg

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Hurricane Idalia made landfall on Wednesday morning local time in western Florida, near Keaton Beach, as a strong Category 3. The storm’s catastrophic surge devastated some of the coastal communities in the area, and flooding concerns continue as the weakening storm continues through the Carolinas tonight.

Hurricane Franklin is still active near Bermuda, with tropical storm winds straddling the island.

Tropical Storms Haikui and Kirogi are both active in the Western Pacific, with the former likely to impact Taiwan and eastern China with more precipitation in that area. Rainfall of up to 400mm is likely across the mountains of Taiwan and in eastern China, with significant strengthening possible before it reaches land.

Elsewhere, other areas of interest could form later this week into the weekend in the Atlantic and Western Pacific.

Watch our full Tropical Weather Bulletin using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxtrxOpZSc4

The post Category 5 Typhoon Saola headed for Hong Kong – Tropical Weather Bulletin – August 31, 2023 appeared first on Force Thirteen.

"Cyclone Mocha has become the most powerful storm since Cyclone Sidr," Azizur Rahman, the head of Bangladesh's Meteorological Department, told.

Current Information 

As of 21z, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has Extremely Severe Cyclone “Mocha” located at 17.8°N, 91.1°E. This is around 270 km South of Chittagong, Bangladesh. Extremely Severe Cyclone Mocha has 3 minutes of sustained winds equivalent to 150 mph (130 Kts/240 Kph) gusting up to 185 mph (160 Kts/300 Kph) and a minimal center pressure of 923 millibars; near Super Cyclone Status as well. The system is currently moving North-Northeastward with a speed of 9 mph (8 Kts/115 Kph.) As of the 18z outlook, our Force Thirteen Cyclone Analyst team has analyzed the system as 160 mph (140 Kts/260 Kph) and a minimal central pressure of 914 mb based on the satellite appearance of it, bringing it to Category 5 equivalent cyclone. 

 In Depth Look – 

Currently, Extremely Severe Cyclone Mocha is present in the North East Bay of Bengal, close to the Myanmar coast. 

Cyclone Mocha is currently located in a very favorable region for intensification with a jet streak and alignment with the shear direction. In addition, very warm sea surface temperatures and robust dual outflow aloft has allowed for rapid intensification. A polar satellite pass measured an eye temperature of over 20°C. This besides a full Cold Medium Grey (CMG) ring using the Dvorak infrared color scale supports a T number of T7.5. This number is 0.5 away from T8.0 which is reserved for only the most powerful tropical cyclones. As explained by one of our forecasters.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had forecast a peak of 140 mph (115 Kts/215 Kph) which will make it the strongest cyclone in the Bay of Bengal since Amphan. Just before landfall, increasing shear might bring minor weakening, possibly bringing it back to an equally destructive Category 4 Cyclone.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center currently forecasts a landfall intensity of 145 mph (125 kts/230 kph) which would make it the strongest landfall in the region since the 1968 Burma Super Cyclone. All signs point to a dangerous and potentially devastating impact in Myanmar and related areas.

Risk Related to Cyclone – 

In advance of the storm’s landfall, weather warnings have been issued by IMD for:

Wind – Gale force winds are forecast for Chittagong (state), Bangladesh, and entire Myanmar Coast with winds in excess of hurricane force being possible at the Arakan Coast near Sittwe, and around Cox’s Bazar.

Sea Conditions – During the passage of the Cyclone, 5-6 meter storm surge is forecast for Barisal, Chittagong (state), Bangladesh and the Arakan coast of Myanmar. Near the region of forecast landfall, near Sittwe and Cox’s Bazar, storm surge can reach up to a height of 15 meters. In the estuary and the tributaries, Gulf of Martaban and Tenasserim coast, storm surge can reach up to a height of 4 meters.

Rainfall – Widespread light to moderate rain with isolated Heavy rainfall is expected in the Southern States of NE India, the Entire Eastern Bangladesh consisting of the Capital City Dhaka, Sylhet, Barisal & Chittagong states of Bangladesh, Entire Myanmar except for Tenasserim coast & Yunnan province of China. In Chauk, 93mm was recorded throughout the course of May 13th due to Mocha.

Others – Due to the extreme wind & rainfall rate, landslide potential is high, particularly in elevated areas. Those in elevated areas should be on high alert!

Fishermen & Port Warning –

Due to the prevailing hazardous conditions, Port Warning 4 was issued from Mongla port in Bangladesh, While Warning No 8 was issued for ports in Barisal & Chittagong area & No 10 for Coxbaxar & Teknaf. Fishermen are requested not to venture around. 

Preparedness – 

Islamic Relief Bangladesh has opened its Emergency Operation Centre (EOC) at the Country’s Office for Cyclone MOCHA response. The Food Security Cluster Coordinator in Bangladesh has joined with the EOC team to monitor the situation and necessary coordination. Mass evacuations have been started in Sittwe as the storm progresses.

The ULA/AA has evacuated more than 30,000 villagers in Rakhine ahead of Cyclone Mocha, according to local news. The National Disaster Management Committee issued a red alert to some northern Rakhine.

Bangladesh officials have begun evacuating Rohingya refugees from risky areas to community centers in preparation for Cyclone Mocha, the most powerful cyclone in two decades.

Mocha stands as a potentially historic storm in the Myanmar/Bangladesh region. All warnings and preparations should be taken in the highest regard. Live coverage on Mocha continues at 01z (7:30 Myanmar Standard Time.) Stay tuned using this link:

The post Cyclone Mocha Poised to Devastate Myanmar Sunday appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Southwest Indian Animation
https://youtu.be/xShneF5kBIo

The SWIO Season was above average this season, with a whopping 9 Category 3+ storms forming. The strongest was Cyclone Cilida, which peaked as a Category 5 in December.

Australian Region Animation

https://youtu.be/o02bD8qdla4

The Australian Region was also above average, with Cyclone Veronica in February being the star of the show.

South Pacific Animation

https://youtu.be/xShneF5kBIo

The South Pacific was below average this year, with only 5 tropical storms forming, and none of them reaching Category 3 or higher. In February, Pola was the strongest and final storm of the season.

Intensities

Australian Region

Owen – 85 mph 968 mb

Penny – 65 mph 984 mb

Riley – 80 mph 964 mb

Savannah – 115 mph 945 mb

Trevor – 120 mph 959 mb

Veronica – 155 mph 935 mb

Wallace – 70 mph 983 mb

Lili – 50 mph 1002 mb

Ann – 65 mph 997 mb

South Pacific

Liua – 50 mph 994 mb

Mona – 60 mph 974 mb

Neil – 40 mph 996 mb

Oma – 85 mph 970 mb

Pola – 110 mph 966 mb

South-West Indian

01S – 45 mph 1004 mb

Alcide – 115 mph 965 mb

Bouchra – 60 mph 990 mb

Kenanga – 140 mph 930 mb

Cilida – 160 mph 925 mb

Desmond – 50 mph 994 mb

Eketsang – 40 mph 1002 mb

Funani – 130 mph 935 mb

Gelena – 140 mph 929 mb

Haleh – 130 mph 952 mb

Idai – 140 mph 946 mb

Joaninha – 140 mph 956 mb

Kenneth – 145 mph 936 mb

Lorna – 85 mph 980 mb

As the Southern Hemisphere season animations are finally complete, look forward to the 2000 West Pacific What-might-have-been animation coming to the Force Thirteen YouTube channel soon!

For a recap of the season, see Hank’s article, found here.  https://www.force-13.com/2019/05/16/a-recap-of-the-2018-19-southern-hemisphere-cyclone-season/

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