Across the East Coast, severe thunderstorm watches have been issued in some areas around the Florida Panhandle, as the strongest storms within the broken line of the storm system pose the risk for strong winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. During the day Wednesday, Florida remained under a tornado watch. Farther north just across the northeast of North Carolina, temperatures have warmed into the mid-70s, fueling the development of additional strong storms. Strong to severe storms are expected to form within the line of the broken storms, as it resumes going northward into far southwest of Virginia. Similar to Florida’s hazards, there will be strong, damaging gusts of wind and potentially one or two tornadoes.

Meanwhile, in California, an atmospheric river is heading inbound towards the northern and central portions, including the San Francisco Bay Area. A High Wind Warning is in effect around the central coast and some parts of the Bay Area, as southerly winds with 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 65 mph in valley locations will lash down trees, powerlines, and other insecure objects around that area. In addition, significant rainfall and snowfall is possible, which could result in flooded roads and streets, and mudslides. Near the Bay Area, a flood warning in effect. Satelite presentation of the system was rather remarkable, noted by this image from GOES-16.

Article written by Dino Wun, Edited and formatted by Preston S

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Number 10: Hurricane Rick (EPAC)

Impacted Southern Mexican Pacific States

On October 19th, the NHC noted a disturbance formed south of Central America. The disturbance became more organized and was upgraded into a Tropical Depression and designated it as Seventeen-E on the 22nd. And was upgraded by the NHC as a Tropical Storm and named it Rick later that day; into a hurricane the next day and reached its peak as a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 105 mph (165 kph) and pressure of 977 millibars. Shortly after reaching its peak, it made landfall in Mexico east of Lázaro Cárdenas, Michoacán State, Mexico. Rick rapidly weakened as it moved northwards over mountainous terrain and became a remnant low the next day.

Number 9: Gulab-Shaheen (NIO)

Impacted Southern and Western Asia 

Noted on September 24 in North Central Bay of Bengal, the disturbance was upgraded as a Depression later that day and was classified as a Cyclonic Storm named Gulab the next day. As it continued westward, the outer rainbands of Cyclone Gulab reached the coastal regions of northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha by the evening of 26th. The JTWC issued its final warning prior to landfall while the IMD downgraded it to a Deep Depression as it traversed India. It was a well-marked low-pressure area as it emerged in the conducive Arabian Sea on the 29. Agencies continued releasing advisories, JTWC upgraded it as a Tropical Storm, still referring to the name Gulab on the 30th. IMD reported that the system had strengthened to a Cyclonic Storm and was named Shaheen. It continued to intensify as it developed an eye; however, it struggled to develop further, due to inadequate convection. On the early morning of October 3, Shaheen made landfall over the northern Oman coast, making it possibly the only cyclone to make landfall there since 1890. Shaheen rapidly weakened after landfall as it moved further inland, weakening into a depression on October 4.

Number 8: Cyclone Tauktae (NIO)

Devastated Western India in May

Designated as a Tropical Cyclone 01A in the Arabian Sea on May 14th and named later that day by the IMD as Tauktae. The system continued to intensify and was classified as a Severe Cyclonic Storm the next day, and as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm by the 16th. It continued to intensify as it brought damaging winds and heavy rain on the coastal states of India facing the Arabian Sea. It slightly weakened before making landfall at night near Diu in Gujarat state and was considered to be the strongest in about two decades. It continued to be a trackable area of low pressure far inland of India. Tauktae left the Western Indian states with considerable damage and left 175 deaths. Neighboring countries of Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan were also affected by the storm.

Number 7: Major Hurricane Felicia (EPAC)

Strongest Tropical Cyclone in 2021 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season

A disturbance that was likely from the Central American Gyre was located on July 9th. The system moved westward over the open ocean during the following days slowly organizing and was classified as a Tropical Depression on the 14th and becoming Tropical Storm Felicia later that day. Felicia immediately underwent a rapid intensification, becoming a hurricane on the 15th and a major hurricane the next day. Early on July 17, the system attained peak winds of 145 mph (235 km/h). Surrounded by the dry air of the northeastern Pacific Ocean, Felicia attained annular characteristics. After a brief westward turn, Felicia resumed a west-northwestward motion into much more hostile environmental conditions the 18th and rapidly weakened and degenerated to a remnant low well east of Hawaii two days later.

Number 6: Major Hurricane Grace (NATL)

The first Major Hurricane of 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

First noted as an area of interest near Cabo Verde, the system continued to move west-northwestward in the North Atlantic Ocean between Cabo Verde and Leeward Islands. Moving into a more conducive environment with better thunderstorm activity, the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven on August 13th. The system continued to intensify and was named Grace the next day. With strong wind shear in the Caribbean Sea, Grace weakened into a Tropical Depression before making landfall on earthquake-hit Haiti. Reemerging in Western Carribean, Grace intensified as a hurricane and made landfall near Tulum, Quintana Roo. Weakened to Tropical Storm, the storm reemerged over Bay of Campeche and rapidly intensified into a Category 3 Major Hurricane less than 48 hours over water. Grace peaked with winds of 125 mph and made landfall in the state of Veracruz. Grace rapidly weakened over rugged terrain of Mexico.

Number 5: Major Hurricane Sam (NATL)

Strongest Tropical Cyclone in 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

Major Hurricane Sam was first noted as a tropical wave coming out of Africa. After days traversing the North Atlantic and fluctuations in thunderstorm activity, the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system as Tropical Depression 18 on September 22th, and was named Sam the next day. Sam intensification was disrupted with dry air intrusion and an eyewall replacement cycle. With Sam’s structure significant improvement and better atmospheric conditions, the storm underwent rapid intensification and peaked on the 26th with winds of155 mph and pressure of 929 mb. Second eyewall replacement cycle caused the storm to weaken on the 27th with Sam growing in size afterwards. The storm regained strength and its Category 4 status. Bermuda was placed under a tropical storm warning on the 30th as the hurricane approached the island experiencing another eyewall replacement cycle and reached a secondary peak. Sam continued to move over the North Atlantic and turned extratropical on October 5th and affected Iceland and Greenland.

Number 4: Super Typhoon Surigae (WPAC)

Strongest April Tropical Cyclone

Originated in an area of low pressure south of Guam, the disturbance over part of Western Pacific with low wind shear, warm sea surface temperature, and a good high-level outflow was noted to be conducive to further development. On April 12th, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) upgraded the disturbance as Tropical Depression; the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) followed suit the next day, by then it was named Surigae by JMA. As it slowly moved over the Philippine Sea near Palau, Surigae continued to intensify. With a tight core and conducive environment, Surigae rapidly intensified on the 16th and reached peaks of 10-min winds 220 kph (140 mph) and 1-min winds of 305 kph (190 mph) as per JMA and JTWC, respectively. On the 17th, Surigae experienced an eyewall replacement cycle causing it to weaken. The next day, with diminished outflow and finished eyewall replacement cycle, Surigae acquired annular characteristics. With its slow movement and dry air, Surigae slowly weakened and became extratropical on the 24th.

Number 3: Super Typhoon Chanthu (WPAC)

Impacted Northern Philippines, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan

On September 5th, an area of interest formed in the Philippine Sea, and JMA classified it as a Tropical Depression the same day. JTWC upgraded it as Tropical Depression the next day, and as a Tropical Storm later that day. JMA named it as Chanthu on September 7th, PAGASA reported the system entered PAR and named Kiko. Chanthu rapidly intensified the same day and became a Category 5 Super Typhoon the next day. Chanthu continued to move northwest and made landfall in Batanes The storm fluctuated in intensity due to multiple eyewall replacement cycles. Chanthu passed east of Taiwan causing heavy rainfall. The system continued to weaken as it reached the East China Sea. The storm slowly moved eastward and made landfall as Tropical Storm in Nagasaki on 17th and weakened into Tropical Depression moving into Japan’s rugged terrain. Chanthu dissipated in the Sea of Japan on the 20th.

Number 2: Major Hurricane Ida (NATL)

Only Major Hurricane Landfall in Continental United States in 2021

Originating as a tropical wave in late August in the southeastern Caribbean Sea, the wave moved westward through the Caribbean. The next day, the system became more organized near Jamaica and was classified as Tropical Depression Nine, later that day Hurricane Hunters found winds of a tropical storm, prompting NHC to name the system Ida. On the 27th, Ida intensified as a hurricane while making two landfalls in Cuba. Ida emerged in the Gulf of Mexico and rapidly intensified over days and became a major hurricane on the 29th. As Ida continued to move towards Louisiana, it further intensified and peaked with winds of 150 mph and pressure of 929 mb. Ida made landfall in Louisiana midday of 29th, tying the 1856 Last island Hurricane and Hurricane Laura as the strongest landfall in the state. The storm sustained Major Hurricane status due to brown ocean effect; and as it moved further inland, Grace rapidly weakened and became an extratropical low. Remnants of the storm caused massive flooding over northeastern United States before dissipating.

Watch the track of Hurricane Ida here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3FnDKCytrbI

Number 1: Super Typhoon Rai (WPAC)

Left Path of Destruction in the Philippines

First noted on December 9th south of the Federal States of Micronesia, the disturbance dissipated and was absorbed by another circulation by the 10th. The center of the circulation moved to the convective bursts the next day and was classified as a Tropical Depression on the 13th. The system continued to intensify on the Philippine Sea and was named Rai late into the 13th. Rai continued to organize as it passed north of Palau and was considered a typhoon on the 16th. The storm then rapidly intensified while nearing the Visayas and Mindanao regions. It started an eyewall replacement cycle shortly after reaching peak intensity. Throughout the afternoon of December 16th and 17th, Rai made landfall nine times in the Central part of the Philippines slowly weakening. It then entered the South China Sea and intensified into its second peak due to favorable conditions. Due to the northeast monsoon, Rai rapidly weakened while meandering the coasts of Vietnam and China. Rai left widespread damage and became one of the deadliest and costliest storms in the Philippines.

Read further on the destruction caused to the Philippines here: Typhoon Rai Leaves Path of Destruction Through the Philippines

Article written by Justine, formatted and adapted by Preston Schenk and feature imagery credit to Isaac G.

The post Top 10 Storms of 2021 appeared first on Force Thirteen.

February: February was a very active month starting off with a 6.7 well off the coast of Chile, damaging earthquakes in Guinea, Armenia, and the Philippines, as well as a non-damaging 6.3 in Papua New Guinea. Then, on the 10th, the Loyalty Islands unleashed a 7.7, the first of many strong earthquakes last year. It occurred as a result of reverse faulting on the New Hebrides Trench along the subduction interface in the area. No deaths or injuries occurred due to the remote location of the earthquake. Only two days later, Japan had its own earthquake. A magnitude 7.1 struck off the coast and caused intense shaking near the epicenter. Hundreds of people were injured, and one died. Vanuatu and Wallis and Futuna recorded magnitude 6 earthquakes before the month finished.

March: Colombia had a deadly magnitude 5.1 on the first which caused limited injury. Greece suffered from a 6.3 near Tyrnavos which killed 1 and injured 11. The next day, New Zealand had a 7.3 earthquake near the North Island which caused some building damage. It occurred as a result of oblique reverse faulting between the Pacific and Australian plates. A few hours later, though, another large earthquake occurred. A magnitude 7.4 struck near the uninhabited island of Raoul in the Kermadec Islands region. That one caused no damage or deaths and its focal mechanism solution showed that it occurred as a result of reverse faulting at the Kermadec-Tonga subduction zone. This area is a long subduction zone capable of massive quakes. Like the one it produced only a couple of hours later. The colossal magnitude 8.1 was the largest earthquake the region had seen in over a century. It, too, occurred as a result of reverse faulting on the Tonga-Kermadec subduction interface. It caused a few injuries. The Kermadec Islands region continued to have multiple magnitude 6+ aftershocks for the next few days before starting to quiet down. The month ended on a sour note with a 7.0 aftershock of the Great East Japan Earthquake causing damage in Miyagi.

Linked Here: Force Thirteen Earthquakes Livestream coverage of the earthquake as it occurred.

April: April was a relatively quiet month with no magnitude 7s in an otherwise active year. A deadly earthquake in Java on the 10th claimed 10 lives and significantly damaged over 1000 buildings. There were a few magnitude 6s throughout the month but nothing notable except for a deadly magnitude 6.0 in Assam, India which claimed 2 lives.

May: May was also a moderately active month starting off with a 6.9 near Miyagi again, but luckily only a few were injured. There were multiple high magnitude 6s, but nothing interesting until the 21st. In China, a magnitude 6.2 in Yunnan caused multiple deaths and many injuries. This event was overshadowed by a more significant 7.3 only a few hundred miles away occurred a few hours later. The Maduo earthquake caused dozens of deaths and hundreds of injuries and attained a maximum shaking intensity of X- The first and only occurrence of the year, and the first since the Aegean Sea earthquake the year prior. The month did finish off quietly though.

Watch Force Thirteen Earthquakes’ Highlight of the 7.3 Here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCpRGhFN2aA

June: While June was a pretty quiet month, the Democratic Republic of the Congo had a magnitude 5.0 which killed 2 and injured 3. Peru had a 5.9 a couple weeks later which killed one and injured 20.

July: California experienced a magnitude 6.0 to start off the month, and Tajikistan had a deadly 5.7. The true highlight of the month was the biggest earthquake of the year. The enormous magnitude 8.2 earthquake occurred in a well known seismic gap in Alaska. It occurred on the subduction interface, so it was a result of reverse faulting. This area had only somewhat ruptured once in 1938, but the earthquake itself was the largest in America since 1965. Rounding off the month was an earthquake in Peru which killed none but injured almost a thousand.

August: The Philippines got hit by a 7.1 on the 11th, resulting in one death. The largest earthquake of the month, however, occurred in the sparsely populated South Sandwich Islands. Initially reported as a 7.5, the South Sandwich Islands earthquake was discovered to actually be two: a 7.5 foreshock, and an 8.1 three minutes later. The rupture is complex, and the aftershocks are tremendous. So much so that it’s not worth mentioning at all. Only a couple days later, Haiti suffered from a devastating 7.2 earthquake which killed over 2 thousand, and injured over a dozen thousand. Luckily, despite being a larger earthquake than 2010, it was much further away from the capital. Rounding out the month there was a deadly earthquake in Indonesia killing one and injuring dozens.

September: On the 8th, a 7.0 occurred near Acapulco, Mexico and caused 13 people to lose their life and a further 23 to be injured. A week later, a 5.4 killed 3 and injured over a hundred in China. On the 21st, Australia experienced a rare 5.9 near Melbourne causing lots of damage. A little under a week later, Greece experienced a 6.0 which killed 1 and injured dozens.

October: Pakistan suffered from a magnitude 5.9 which killed 27 and injured hundreds. The next day, Tokyo strongly felt a 5.9 earthquake which caused the strongest shaking Tokyo had experienced since 2011. Indonesia got impacted by a deadly 4.7 which killed 3 and injured nearly 100.

November: In Iran, a powerful doublet caused 2 deaths and a hundred injuries. At the end of the month, Peru got smacked by a 7.5 which caused widespread shaking that led to a dozen deaths and over a hundred deaths.

December: In the middle of the month, Indonesia had a 7.3 along the Banda Sea-Timor plate boundary in the Flores Sea. It killed 1 and injured 100. At the end of the month, a much less injurious earthquake occurred along the same plate boundary with the same magnitude, 7.3, but this time near the Barat Daya islands. That rounds out the month of December.

The post 2021 Year in Review – Earthquakes appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Hurricane Sandy will be remembered for decades as a very unusual storm, with its huge size and disputed tropicality all the way back to its passage near the Bahamas.

Of course, it cannot be forgotten that the storm also made a hurricane landfall on Jamaica and a major hurricane landfall in Cuba, before it devastated the northeastern United States.

It will also be remembered in meteorological circles for the National Hurricane Center’s paralysis in issuing watches and warnings beyond North Carolina, due to the storm’s transition to extratropical status.

This pedantry caused much confusion in the wider world, and one could suggest that many at the NHC were desperate to make exceptions, but protocol at the time didn’t allow it.

We know of course that these rules were changed after Sandy, and the National Weather Service had out all the relevant warnings relating to an extratropical cyclone when it made landfall.

Awareness and Criticism

High Wind Warnings and Flood Warnings littered the Mid-Atlantic and the northeast, but some still didn’t take it as seriously as they would a hurricane watch or warning.

Hurricane Sandy’s enormous wind-field caused maximum impact when it made landfall in New Jersey, with impacts extending over many adjacent states and beyond to the whole region, with damages reaching around $75 billion – the second highest ever total at the time behind Hurricane Katrina.

Meanwhile in the United Kingdom, mute one-man show Nathan Foy was scheduled to have a Monday-Friday vacation in the south of England during the storm.

Early updates were created easily and efficiently, even though by today’s standards they are pretty poor. Internal communications also reveal that Nathan criticised the British news media for publicising Hurricane Sandy as “Frankenstorm”.

“Oh for goodness sake. Now the British news agencies are calling Sandy “Frankenstorm”, coined by the American media. They named storms since 1950 for a reason. The name’s Sandy!”

But a point of realisation came about where it was becoming plain that this would be a severe impact whether tropical or not, and that he would have to either sit out the vacation or sit out Sandy.

A Holiday Cut Short

Things got worse when Sandy reached Category 2 hurricane status as it started to execute its terminal turn towards the United States in the subtropics.

Landfall was slated for Monday evening, October 29, right around the time that Nathan and company would be settling in after driving six hours across the country.

The journey began at 12:15pm, and ended at 5:30pm, with good traffic along the way. At this point, Hurricane Sandy was now 8 hours from landfall.

And so, the source of the below photo comes from hurriedly setting up the computer in an isolated cabin in Cornwall, to produce the biggest update of Hurricane Sandy’s life – the one where it was about to make landfall and unleash its widespread damage and storm surge.

The video was made as normal on the computer, however the only free power point was along a wooden bench, with no desk for a monitor.

Making the video was only one part of the project, however, as the cabin had no internet reception.

Nathan was also prepared for this, and had to rush a laptop across to the community hub of the holiday park and use their Wi-Fi to upload the video, after transferring the video via a memory stick.

The vacation in general was a damp squib, with Hurricane Sandy getting in the way and the accommodation having poor heating.

Nathan and his family headed back home on October 31, only three days into the five day trip.

Links:

The video that was produced from the holiday cabin:
https://youtu.be/7Z24AvnOn20

The Track of Hurricane Sandy (created in 2020):
https://youtu.be/ASr7Vrb04lc

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As depicted in this recent graphic by Force Thirteen UK and Ireland, Epsilon has an enormous wind field with some hurricane force winds near the center on the southern side. This area is expected to expand overnight with the storm peaking with around 90mph winds on Tuesday morning.

Thankfully, the storm will shrink and weaken substantially before getting close to land, with the strongest gales remaining well out to sea. However, Iceland, the Republic of Ireland, and parts of the United Kingdom could experience some gale force winds and general disruption.

The storm is expected to land in Iceland late Thursday evening as it dissipates.

The post Former Hurricane Epsilon now a huge extratropical cyclone appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Here is our chart for this year so far (as of October 21), depicting a worldwide total of 459 ACE points.

What’s particularly striking about this year is that the Pacific has been massively suppressed which – unless we see a blockbuster end to the year – will slump to the lowest levels seen since at least 1977. Conversely, the Atlantic is booming, with well above average ACE, but still barely over half of the record set in 1933. Elsewhere – that is to say – the Indian Ocean and the Southern Hemisphere, conditions have been fairly normal.

So where has all the ACE gone? The simple answer is that worldwide ACE tends to slump during busy Atlantic hurricane seasons and La Nina events, because the Pacific harbours the majority of storms and its misfirings have a greater impact than an inactive Atlantic hurricane season would. Nonetheless, in 2020 this appears to have been much more amplified, with the Western Pacific seeing less than half the average cyclone energy for the year to date, meaning that there is now a real chance that we are witnessing the quietest Pacific typhoon season in terms of cyclone energy since before 1945.

But it’s not time to get complacent! With computer models picking up on Western Pacific activity through early November, the ACE could be recouped very easily with a couple of intense or longer lasting typhoons.

In an average season, five typhoons form after this date.

The post Worldwide ACE still lagging in 2020 appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Hurricane Week will take place from November 30 until December 6, and will feature a documentary series, daily live events, gameshows, animations, and possibly more. More details are likely to be announced slowly during the course of the next five weeks.

Hurricane Week first started on Force Thirteen in 2012, featuring a top 100 storms series. Future versions of the production aired in 2013, and 2015-17. It remains a fan favourite and boasts some of the best quality production work across the Force Thirteen network.

The post Hurricane Week 2020 will go ahead at the end of November appeared first on Force Thirteen.

We are expecting fairly average numbers across the board, with some particular anomalies when it comes to landfall locations that we will be picking up on during the event, which airs live on the Force Thirteen main channel at 8pm EDT (12am UTC).

Force Thirteen’s live streams can be found at www.youtube.com/forcethirteen/live – You may want to bookmark this page since all of our live events are streamed to this page when active.

The post Force Thirteen’s 2019 Forecasts to be revealed tomorrow appeared first on Force Thirteen.