• Invest 92L is likely to become a tropical cyclone within the next 24 to 48 hours.
• It is likely to become a tropical storm, and at that point will be named Barry.
• 92L poses a serious threat to Louisiana and Texas, with a hurricane landfall predicted by most models.
• The expected peak is predicted to be a mid-grade category 1 hurricane, although further intensification is possible.
• If designated, Barry will be the first storm in the basin since Andrea in May.
• If a hurricane landfall occurs, it will be the first July hurricane landfall in the CONUS since Arthur in 2014.

GULF COAST — Invest 92L emerged into the Gulf of Mexico this morning, and signs of organization have already begun. Although the invest remains fairly disorganized at its core, strong convection has sprouted around the low-level center. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects fairly rapid development, with a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours.

The general intensity model consensus is that the storm, if it does develop, will peak as a strong tropical storm or weak category 1 hurricane prior to landfall, before weakening as it begins to move inland near the Louisiana/Texas border. The track still remains somewhat uncertain, however. Models continue to shift westwards and eastwards with landfall location, although the general consensus today has been a central Louisianan landfall, rather than the eastern Texas solution shown by most major models yesterday.

Although the storm may form soon, intensification is not shown by most models until the storm is approaching landfall. The most aggressive of the hurricane models as of the 18z run is the HWRF, which rapidly intensifies 92L into a powerful 125 mph category 3 hurricane moving inland into central Louisiana. However, this is quite unlikely, and most models, such as the GFS and HMON, show a weak hurricane landfall.

All residents along the entire Louisiana Gulf Coast and the eastern Texas Gulf Coast need to remain vigilant and pay close attention to the storm. Although we are just days out from landfall, confidence remains low on track and intensity, and the situation may look entirely different by tomorrow morning.

Along with high wind and storm surge, the NWS anticipates a serious inland flooding threat from 92L as it moves slowly inland and dumps heavy rain. People in the path of the storm need to prepare for a possible hurricane landfall and heavy rainfall.

For information, monitor the National Hurricane Center as well as their official social media outlets, your local NWS office and emergency management, and watch Force13’s daily updates, live shows, and Tropical Weather Bulletins that will be issued everyday until the storm dissipates on their YouTube channel.

The post Invest 92L Likely to Be Named by Thursday — Potentially Serious Threat to Louisiana and Texas appeared first on Force Thirteen.

The winter storm, unofficially named “Scott” by The Weather Channel, began as a rather harmless low over the Western United States on Saturday. It dropped several inches of snow over the Rockies before rapidly moving into the Midwest by Sunday morning.

The storm continued to quickly move eastward over the Midwest, and due to its fast movement little snowfall was recorded, with most locations picking up just a few inches of snow.

However, the situation in the Southeast began to rapidly deteriorate during the afternoon hours on Sunday, when the southern fringe of the storm quickly began developing strong thunderstorms over Alabama and Georgia.

SPC Outlook from 2000 UTC (2 PM CST, 3 PM EST), mere hours before multiple deadly tornadoes struck Alabama and Georgia.

Over the following hours, multiple large tornadoes wrecked havoc over the Southeast. The most serious of the day, the Lee County Tornado, carved out a path over 25 miles long through eastern Alabama before moving into Georgia and weakening. The tornado, which is currently still under investigation, was rated an EF4 by NWS Birmingham on Monday afternoon, becoming the first EF4+ rated tornado since the Canton, Texas tornado on April 29, 2017. Hundreds of homes were damaged or destroyed, and at the time of writing, 23 deaths have been confirmed as a result of this tornado.

BREAKING: Preliminary EF-4 Tornado Damage has been found along County Road 39 just east of Cave Mill Road in southwestern Lee County. Winds have been estimated at 170mph. Single family homes were completely destroyed. Photos are from those survey locations.
#alwx pic.twitter.com/euYNfSDY11

— NWS Birmingham (@NWSBirmingham) March 4, 2019

The powerful EF4 passed just north of central Smiths Station, destroying a cell tower and sending a billboard sign flying over 20 miles away. 

The mangled cell tower left behind by the Lee County EF4. The tornado crossed directly over U.S Highway 280 outside of Smith’s Station. Image courtesy of Mike Haskey.

At the end of that day, a total of 41 tornadoes were reported across Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina. Surveyors from the National Weather Service will continue to investigate all tornado reports. Lee County schools are closed on Monday and Tuesday after the deaths of 3 schoolchildren. An elementary school in Smiths Station sustained damage from the tornado, and saw its roof torn off. It is currently unknown how long it will take to repair the building and when affected children will be going back to school.

The winter storm, however, was not done yet. Severe weather in the Southeast concluded by 9 PM local time as the weather system raced up the Eastern Seaboard and brought heavy snow to much of the Northeast. For many, this was the biggest snowfall of the entire winter, particularly along the I-95 corridor. The heaviest snowfall fell in southeastern New England, with Milford, Massachusetts picking up over 17 inches of snowfall. The storm overperformed significantly across the region, with forecast errors of up to 5 inches in certain locations.  

Last NWS Boston forecast prior to the beginning of the storm (right), compared to the Storm Total Snowfall after the storm (left). Significant forecast errors occurred in northeastern Connecticut and eastern Massachusetts, where snowfall amounts greatly exceeded expectations.

Heavy snowfall rates approaching 1 inch/hr+ were observed for several hours past midnight, likely resulting in the higher-than-expected snow totals. Snow concluded across much of the region by 10 am EST as the low moved away into Atlantic Canada. Schools across the region were closed Monday for the largest snowfall of the winter, with Boston picking up over a foot of snow and doubling it’s winter total to date. However, this may very well be the last big snowstorm for coastal New England as a warmer pattern is set to take a firm hold by mid-March.

The low brought in a brief return of warmer temperatures before they once again dip down below freezing by Monday night for what may be the last hurrah for the 2018-19 winter.

The post Winter Storm Complex Spawns Tornadoes Across South, Drops Swath of Snow on Midwest and Northeast appeared first on Force Thirteen.