Watch Here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLmXHzft-Q4

The post Track of Cyclone Mocha (Video) appeared first on Force Thirteen.

In the Bay of Bengal, a tropical storm is drawing nearer to the coast of West Bengal and Bangladesh, with winds near 45 miles per hour (72kph). The storm is expected to wash ashore near Bhola island in the next 24 hours before rapidly weakening. Some strengthening is likely before landfall.

In the Western Pacific, the remnants of Tropical Depression 17W are still active, and are likely to dump large amounts of rain over the Philippines starting tomorrow. Rainfall amounts in parts of the eastern Visayas and southern Luzon could approach 700mm.

Watch Friday’s Tropical Weather Bulletin using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqGUCfxtHfI

The post Jamaica on Alert for New Storm – Tropical Weather Bulletin – November 17, 2023 appeared first on Force Thirteen.

"Cyclone Mocha has become the most powerful storm since Cyclone Sidr," Azizur Rahman, the head of Bangladesh's Meteorological Department, told.

Current Information 

As of 21z, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has Extremely Severe Cyclone “Mocha” located at 17.8°N, 91.1°E. This is around 270 km South of Chittagong, Bangladesh. Extremely Severe Cyclone Mocha has 3 minutes of sustained winds equivalent to 150 mph (130 Kts/240 Kph) gusting up to 185 mph (160 Kts/300 Kph) and a minimal center pressure of 923 millibars; near Super Cyclone Status as well. The system is currently moving North-Northeastward with a speed of 9 mph (8 Kts/115 Kph.) As of the 18z outlook, our Force Thirteen Cyclone Analyst team has analyzed the system as 160 mph (140 Kts/260 Kph) and a minimal central pressure of 914 mb based on the satellite appearance of it, bringing it to Category 5 equivalent cyclone. 

 In Depth Look – 

Currently, Extremely Severe Cyclone Mocha is present in the North East Bay of Bengal, close to the Myanmar coast. 

Cyclone Mocha is currently located in a very favorable region for intensification with a jet streak and alignment with the shear direction. In addition, very warm sea surface temperatures and robust dual outflow aloft has allowed for rapid intensification. A polar satellite pass measured an eye temperature of over 20°C. This besides a full Cold Medium Grey (CMG) ring using the Dvorak infrared color scale supports a T number of T7.5. This number is 0.5 away from T8.0 which is reserved for only the most powerful tropical cyclones. As explained by one of our forecasters.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had forecast a peak of 140 mph (115 Kts/215 Kph) which will make it the strongest cyclone in the Bay of Bengal since Amphan. Just before landfall, increasing shear might bring minor weakening, possibly bringing it back to an equally destructive Category 4 Cyclone.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center currently forecasts a landfall intensity of 145 mph (125 kts/230 kph) which would make it the strongest landfall in the region since the 1968 Burma Super Cyclone. All signs point to a dangerous and potentially devastating impact in Myanmar and related areas.

Risk Related to Cyclone – 

In advance of the storm’s landfall, weather warnings have been issued by IMD for:

Wind – Gale force winds are forecast for Chittagong (state), Bangladesh, and entire Myanmar Coast with winds in excess of hurricane force being possible at the Arakan Coast near Sittwe, and around Cox’s Bazar.

Sea Conditions – During the passage of the Cyclone, 5-6 meter storm surge is forecast for Barisal, Chittagong (state), Bangladesh and the Arakan coast of Myanmar. Near the region of forecast landfall, near Sittwe and Cox’s Bazar, storm surge can reach up to a height of 15 meters. In the estuary and the tributaries, Gulf of Martaban and Tenasserim coast, storm surge can reach up to a height of 4 meters.

Rainfall – Widespread light to moderate rain with isolated Heavy rainfall is expected in the Southern States of NE India, the Entire Eastern Bangladesh consisting of the Capital City Dhaka, Sylhet, Barisal & Chittagong states of Bangladesh, Entire Myanmar except for Tenasserim coast & Yunnan province of China. In Chauk, 93mm was recorded throughout the course of May 13th due to Mocha.

Others – Due to the extreme wind & rainfall rate, landslide potential is high, particularly in elevated areas. Those in elevated areas should be on high alert!

Fishermen & Port Warning –

Due to the prevailing hazardous conditions, Port Warning 4 was issued from Mongla port in Bangladesh, While Warning No 8 was issued for ports in Barisal & Chittagong area & No 10 for Coxbaxar & Teknaf. Fishermen are requested not to venture around. 

Preparedness – 

Islamic Relief Bangladesh has opened its Emergency Operation Centre (EOC) at the Country’s Office for Cyclone MOCHA response. The Food Security Cluster Coordinator in Bangladesh has joined with the EOC team to monitor the situation and necessary coordination. Mass evacuations have been started in Sittwe as the storm progresses.

The ULA/AA has evacuated more than 30,000 villagers in Rakhine ahead of Cyclone Mocha, according to local news. The National Disaster Management Committee issued a red alert to some northern Rakhine.

Bangladesh officials have begun evacuating Rohingya refugees from risky areas to community centers in preparation for Cyclone Mocha, the most powerful cyclone in two decades.

Mocha stands as a potentially historic storm in the Myanmar/Bangladesh region. All warnings and preparations should be taken in the highest regard. Live coverage on Mocha continues at 01z (7:30 Myanmar Standard Time.) Stay tuned using this link:

The post Cyclone Mocha Poised to Devastate Myanmar Sunday appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Cyclone Mocha has continued intensifying and is now a Category 2-equivalent cyclone, as Myanmar and Bangladesh prepare for the storm, with landfall expected in a few days.

Current Information

As of 12:00 UTC (5:30 pm IST), Mocha is currently located near 14.6 degrees north, 88.6 degrees east, or about 550 km northwest of Port Blair, or about 760 km southwest of Sittwe, Myanmar. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has Mocha with 3-minute sustained winds of 150 kph (90 mph) with gusts up to 165 kph (100 mph), and a central pressure of 972 millibars. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated Mocha to have 1-minute sustained winds of 105 mph (170 kph) with a central pressure of 966 millibars. The storm is currently moving north-northeastwards at 8 mph (13 kph).

Force Thirteen has analyzed Mocha to have 1-minute winds of 110 mph (180 kph) given its improving structure in microwave and infrared imagery.

Current Forecast

Mocha is forecast to continue its rapid intensification while moving northeast under a subtropical ridge, before landing near the Bangladesh-Myanmar border by Sunday noon. The IMD expects Mocha to peak as an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm tomorrow, with 3-minute sustained winds of 185 kph (115 mph), while the JTWC has the system peaking as a Category 4-equivalent cyclone in the Saffir-Simpson scale, with 1-minute winds of 220 kph (140 mph). The exact strength of the cyclone at landfall remains undetermined, with IMD forecasting a 160 kph (100 mph) landfall, whilst the JTWC has a 195 kph (120 mph) landfall.

Current Warnings

The Department of Meteorology and Hydrology in Myanmar warned that maximum winds may reach 100-110 mph in Rakhine State and 40-60 mph in Naypyitaw, Lower Sagaing, Mandalay, Magway, Bago, Yangon, Ayeyarwady Regions and Chin State during tonight to Monday.

The Bangladesh Meteorological Department has hoisted Local Warning Signal No. 4 at maritime ports in Chattogram, Cox’s Bazar, Mongla and Payra.

The IMD has issued wind warnings to Tripura, Mizoram & South Manipur, with winds of 60 kph and gusts up to 70 kph prevailing over the area until Sunday. Rainfall warnings are also in effect for the areas including Nagaland, Manipur & south Assam, with heavy rainfall expected until Sunday.

Storm surge of 2-2.5 meters above astronomical tide are likely to inundate low-lying coastal areas of Myanmar and adjoining southeast Bangladesh by Sunday’s expected landfall.

Fishermen, ships, boats and trawlers are advised not to venture into the northeast Bay of Bengal until Sunday when the storm makes landfall.

Preparations

According to the United Nations (UN) Refugee Agency in Bangladesh, emergency preparations in the camps & on Bhasan Char are undergoing as Mocha approaches the country. It also stated that the Government has hosted coordination meetings with humanitarian partners to respond efficiently with the aftermath of the cyclone.

In Myanmar, humanitarian organizations, especially in Rakhine, have ramped up their preparedness efforts and have been pre-positioning personnel and supplies wherever possible, with preparedness being stepped up in the Northwest, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Human Affairs (OCHA). With the Myanmar humanitarian Emergency Response Preparedness Plan already being activated nationwide since the start of the week, evacuation advice has also been issued by local authorities in Rakhine for low-lying and coastal areas in Sittwe, Pauktaw, Myebon, Maungdaw and Buthidaung with many people already starting to move ahead of the storm.

“Across Rakhine and the Northwest, there are already about six million people in need of humanitarian assistance and 1.2 million people displaced, even before the cyclone hits,” the office said.

This region hasn’t experienced a major cyclone landfall since Cyclone Giri in 2010. With the system continuing its intensification on its way to land, it is advised to keep updated with your local officials and evacuate if ordered to. Stay tuned to us at Force Thirteen as we continue to cover this storm.

The post Cyclone Mocha continues intensification, threatens Myanmar and Bangladesh appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Currently, it has a broad influence and developing circulation, with convection firing up close to the center, and could be declared a tropical cyclone later today.

On the other side of the equator, a tropical system has a 40% chance of development well to the west of Indonesia, and is expected to turn away from land relatively soon. Currently the system is struggling, but several computer models back cyclone genesis late this week or over the weekend, out at sea.

Elsewhere, no areas of interest are active at this time.

Watch our full Tropical Weather Bulletin using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fH0gK4Xsdes

The post Powerful Cyclone Possible in the Bay of Bengal This Week – Tropical Weather Bulletin – May 9, 2023 appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Model support is solidifying for a potential cyclone in the Bay of Bengal or Andaman Sea by midweek, with the GFS being very bold on the current forecast, depicting a near Category 5 storm off the coast of Myanmar. This should be treated as a worse case scenario, and could have catastrophic consequences, but at the moment it is an outlier forecast.

In the South Indian Ocean, another cyclone could spawn near Indonesia, performing a hairpin turn just off the coast of Sumatra and turning back out to sea, possibly reaching hurricane equivalent status.

The GFS is also depicting a third system in the southwest Indian Ocean, but no other models support it so far and there is a lack of run consistency, and so it has not been marked for potential development.

Watch our full Tropical Weather Bulletin using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHHrmEvG_Qg

The post Cyclone Chances Increasing in Bay of Bengal – Tropical Weather Bulletin – May 7, 2023 appeared first on Force Thirteen.