Luke Katz, Author at Force Thirteen

Severe Weather Going to Impact Millions This Weekend

Luke Katz — Fri, 10 Jan 2020 22:59:14 +0000

A huge low-pressure frontal system is going to make its way across the US not only affecting the south with Severe Weather but also the north with ice and snow. Millions are in the way of this system and should be prepared in case of any inclement weather from this system. The NWS SPC outlooks give high chances of severe weather for Day 1 and 2, and it will affect millions including NOLA, Birmingham, Atlanta, Oklahoma City, and San Antonio to name a few. You might be wondering what are the chances of severe weather for me, and if I am in one of those locations what should I do to prepare for the severe weather or even the worse. Don`t worry that is what this article is here to tell you.

Day 1(Friday)

Today will be the spawning of the system, and the severe weather will mainly affect Louisiana, Texas, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. While in the north severe snow and ice will affect Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin. This system will be double hitter, and that`s why this article is going to be divided between the Northern and Southern U.S. because each area will experience different situations.

Southern U.S. Day 1 (Texas, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Louisiana)

SPC Day 1 outlook showing severe weather threats from Texas to Missouri and Mississippi.

The SPC Day 1 outlook showing a full day of severe weather for people from Texas to Missouri. If you are in the orange area or red areas please take shelter if there is any tornado threat near you and be cautious of the high winds and hail. Remember tornadoes aren`t the only killer because high winds hail can be just as deadly if people do not take the right precautions. The chances for day 1 are Hail 30%, Winds 45%, and Tornado 15%, so anyone in the highlighted areas please keep updated with your local weather service and takes some extra precautions.

Northern U.S. Day 1(Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin)

Big picture of the system from day 1 showing severe weather in the south and a winter storm in the north.

Not only is this system a severe weather threat, but it is also a severe winter storm in the north which could have black ice, which super dangerous when driving, and tons of snow possibly keeping some people in their homes. Overall, the winter storm is nothing to take lightly and if you are in those blues or pinks you should prepare for tons of snow and ice.

Day 2(Saturday)

Tomorrow is potentially going to be less dangerous, but you should always prepare for the worse in case tomorrow is as severe as today. Michigan will experience wretched conditions from the snow and ice, and the south will experience more severe weather as the system continues to push east.

Southern U.S. Day 2(Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky, Florida)

SPC Day 2 outlook shows significant weather for those in the Southern U.S.

Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, and Florida are going to experience the worst of the severe weather for day 2. It is most likely not going to be as tornado driven as today but high winds and hail will make for inclement weather tomorrow. If you are in one of the highlighted areas you should take a look at your local weather service, and look at what safety precautions you should take and make safe decisions, so you do not get hit off guard by this.

Northern U.S. Day 2(Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois)

Michigan is most likely going to get hammered by this system especially Detroit by all the ice and snow that could pile and make some roads not able for people to drive on. It is not only Michigan, but it is also Northern Indiana, North Eastern Illinois, and Wisconsin. If you live in any of those location please look at your local weather service and make a plan in case of the worst.

Summary

The severe weather this weekend will affect millions and if you are in one of the locations I talked about in the article you should keep a close eye on this developing situation so in case of the worse you have cut in stone plan. The most important thing to do right now will be to check your local weather service. Also, if you want some more in-depth coverage from Force Thirteen go check out Force Thirteen U.S https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYXSc1C38hfe6QFR6moVGIw for more coverage from our team.

Works Cited

http://spc.noaa.gov “Products, Outlook, Day 1” https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Accessed 10 Jan. 2020.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ “Forecast Models, GFS, 18z Friday Jan 10, CONUS, Forecast Hour 12, MSLP and Precip (Rain/Frozen)” https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020011018&fh=30 Accessed 10 Jan. 2020.
http://spc.noaa.gov “Products, Outlook, Day 2” https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Accessed 10 Jan. 2020.

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2 Systems Affecting Australia This Week

Luke Katz — Mon, 06 Jan 2020 23:39:07 +0000

Tropical Storm Blake is affecting the NW Australian Coast including North and West Kimberly. Also, in the Australian Region there is invest 92s which has a chance of becoming a major cyclone and making landfall somewhere near Darwin and then skimming the NW Australian Coast like Blake. Unlike Blake, 92s does not make landfall from the latest model runs in the NW Australian Coast and becomes an intense cyclone that goes out to sea. Both systems have the chance of bringing much needed rain to Southern Australia which is in a fire emergency right now, but the main questions are for both of these systems are the intensity, track, and rainfall potential.

Blake

Blake is located at 17.9S and 121.8E with winds of 50mph and a pressure of 988mb according to Force Thirteen. It is moving across the Australian Coast and is going to make landfall either today or tomorrow and has had a degrading appearance due to its close proximity to land. Its remnants will dive into Southern Australia and hopefully bring much needed rain to them.

Rainfall

Total Accumulated Rainfall from the 18z GFS showing possible rain for Southern Australia.

Rainfall will hopefully not be a huge issue but areas near the landfall could receive up to 400mm of rain. Also, the remnants of Blake could possibly bring rainfall to Southern Australia relieving the situation there.

Overall, the track of Blake is clear and it does not look like Blake will intensify anymore, but the heavy rainfall could make issue to those who live in NW Australia.

92s

92s is located 10.7S and 137.2E with winds of 30mph and a pressure 1004mb. 92s is likely going to be a way more intense and affect way more people than Blake, so if you live anywhere near Darwin or the Northern Australian coast please keep a close eye on this system.

Track

The spaghetti plot diagram shows a general consensus of a landfall near Darwin and then skimming the Australian Coast after.

The track of the system is likely to go through somewhere near Darwin after that long range models like to take it out to sea as an intense tropical cyclone. The track puts many people in danger and could amass to lots of rainfall for people that live near or on the Northern Australian Coast.

Intensity

92s is likely going to not be strong at landfall near Darwin, but it will likely intensify after landfall while being close to the Australian Coast and then going out to sea.

92s is not going to be that strong at landfall near Darwin (Probably just a tropical storm), but after that it will probably take full use of its environment and become an intense cyclone as it tracks out to sea. Even if its not strong people should take it seriously because even tropical storms can kill too.

Overall, 92s seems like a threatening system and people in the area of impact should take it seriously, so they don`t get taken off guard when the system begins to affect them.

Works Cited

www.tropicaltidbits.com “Forecast Models, GFS, 18z Monday Jan 6, Australia, Forecast Hour 132, Total Accumulated Precip (mm)” https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=aus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2020010618&fh=24 Accessed 6 Jan. 2020.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ “TC Real Time, 92s, Model Statistics, Multi Model Analytics” https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm_model_data.asp?storm_identifier=sh922020 Accessed 6 Jan. 2020.

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Tropical Storm Sarai is Going to Impact Fiji This Week

Luke Katz — Thu, 26 Dec 2019 22:30:57 +0000

Tropical Storm Sarai has just been named today by the Fiji Meteorological Services at 1200 UTC December 26, 2019, and it is going to impact Fiji and all the other islands around Fiji for the next few days. Right now, Sarai has winds of 50mph and a pressure of 994mb and is moving south–southwest at 14mph. Also, gale warnings are in effect for Va Nua Levu, Taveuni, and other islands nearby while a strong wind warning is in effect for Rotuma. Luckily, no landfall is predicted for Fiji, but Sarai will get close to the island as it starts to turn southeast. The overall environment is conducive for continuing development as it gets closer to Fiji before higher levels of shear halts more development. The main impacts of the storm will be the high winds, the storm surge, and the rain as it makes its closest approach to Fiji.

Rainfall

The GFS 12z run shows up to 300mm (12in) in some places in northern Fiji

Rainfall is nothing to take lightly if you live in northern Fiji then please at the Fiji Meteorological Services for further information. This storm will be moving fast, but it is such a huge system that the rainfall will pile up in isolated locations.

Intensity and Forecast

12z forecast cone from the JTWC showing it peaking as a cat 1 south of Fiji.

The track of the system is pretty clear, but the intensity guidance is not as clear. The intensity of Sarai all depends on how fast can Sarai tighten its inner core because it is such a massive system. Because of this no model is quite sure about how intense it will get, but the average seems to be somewhere around a cat 1.

Overall, tropical storm Sarai is threat to take seriously if you are in any of the warning areas the Fiji Meteorological Services have designated. If you are in the cone but no warnings have been placed yet than keep a close eye on the system and check the Fiji Meteorological every few hours to keep updated. Sarai will be a threat, but it is unlikely that it will be anything stronger than a cat 2.

Works Cited

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ “Forecast Models, GFS, 12z Thursday, Dec 26, Southwest Pacific, Forecast Hour 60, Total Accumulated Precipitation (mm)” https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=swpac&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2019122612&fh=6 Accessed 26 Dec. 2019.
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html “Tropical Cyclone 04p (Sarai) Warning #3, Issued at 26/2100z” https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh0420.gif Accessed 26 Dec. 2019.

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