Current Warnings

Météo Madagascar currently has heavy rain, strong wind, and heavy swell warnings in place for areas across the northwestern and northeastern parts of the coast with the heavy swell warning stretching all the way down to the western coast.

Rainfall

Cyclone Dikeledi can be expected to bring 10 inches and above to the northern coast of Madagascar and up to 6 inches or so once it reaches the northwestern coast of Mozambique.

Current Hazards:

Cyclone Dikeledi’s main hazards will be rough seas, strong winds, and heavy rainfall over the next couple of days as it continues its path over Madagascar into the Mozambique channel.

Check out our latest full update on Cyclone Dikeledi using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XnMmDUT6MJ8

The post Cyclone Dikeledi Moves Towards Northern Madagascar appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Watch our latest update on Kabavan (Jelawat) using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rs08prvEt2o&t

The post Tropical Storm Kabayan (Jelawat) Forecast to Make Landfall in the Philippines Tonight – Video Update appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Freddy is setting records for cyclone longevity and accumulated cyclone energy, 33 days since it first got named in the Australian region. The track forecast remains uncertain, and the storm may move inland. However, the bulk of model projections are now suggesting the storm to move out over the Mozambique channel and may persist for another ten days as it drifts southwards. Further impacts in Madagascar, southern Mozambique and South Africa cannot be ruled out.

Watch our full update using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRiQMZfddPw

The post Cyclone Freddy Stalls Off the Coast of Mozambique – Video Update – March 11, 2023 appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Regardless of the forecast, this storm is forecast to deliver very high amounts of rainfall to the entire region, causing major flooding concerns after the storm already passed through this area last week. Up to 24 inches (600mm) of rainfall are expected in the landfall area near Quelimane, and large areas of 10 inches (250mm) of rainfall extending well inland through Malawi, and still significant amounts extending into Zimbabwe, Zambia, and the rest of Madagascar. Out at sea where the storm is expected to move slowly before landfall, rainfall amounts could reach 50 inches. Freddy has maintained tropical cyclone status for approximately 26 days so far, and is likely to dethrone Hurricane John later next week if it retains tropical cyclone status until Sunday.

Watch our full update on Cyclone Freddy here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oVpBdXSXqgM

The post Historic Cyclone Freddy Continues Journey Off Coast of Madagascar – Video Update – March 7, 2023 appeared first on Force Thirteen.

On this day in 2012, Intense Tropical Cyclone Funso peaked in the Mozambique Channel.

Unofficial Force Thirteen analysis indicates Funso’s peak to have been with winds of 145 mph (1-min sustained) and a pressure of 925 hPa (mbar).

Funso was the first storm since Cyclone Jokwe (2008) to impact Mozambique, and was the strongest tropical cyclone of the 2011-12 Southwest Indian Ocean Cyclone Season.

Cyclone Funso is remembered primarily due to its erratic track in the Mozambique Channel.

The cyclone had also came to a crawl at one point prior to peak and spent several days meandering off the coast of Mozambique.

Even though Funso never made landfall, over three million people were still affected by the storm’s gale-force winds.

A total of 12 lives were lost in the Zambezia Province, and further impacts were also recorded in the Inhambane Province.

The Movene River, the main water source for residents of Maputo, had risen at a substantial rate.

Funso is also responsible for providing flooding across the Incomati River.

In neighboring Malawi, heavy rainfall was also recorded.

Two rivers exceeded their banks causing floods that destroyed roads and bridges between Blantyre and Nsanje.

This resulted in at least 30 villages becoming isolated.

Cyclone Funso continued a series of flooding events that had been occurring throughout Southern Africa in 2012.

The flooding itself had begun with an enhanced monsoon, but then, Tropical Storm Dando struck the country and worsened the flooding by a large margin.

When Cyclone Funso stalled off the coast, the flooding was prolific enough to unfortunately claim the lives of up to 40 people.

Funso also became one of the first storms to be animated by Force Thirteen – With this animation coming out almost 10 years ago!
Watch Here: https://youtu.be/e-jWU7In2VQ

The post On This Day – January 25th: Cyclone Funso appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Today marks 10 years since Hurricane Irene struck Cape Lookout, North Carolina, causing 49 direct deaths and spawned several tornadoes prior to landfall.

Storm Synopsis

On August 15th, 2011 a tropical wave exited the west coast of Africa accompanied by a large area of clouds and thunderstorms. 

The wave would soon become a tropical storm and eventually a hurricane, bringing severe impacts along the US East Coast.

The storm’s convection diminished passing south of the Cabo Verde Islands the next day, but it maintained its mid-level circulation.

Thunderstorm activity regenerated as it continued to move westward across the tropical Atlantic and became organized halfway between the Lesser Antilles and west coast of Africa.

A reconnaissance aircraft investigated the system on the 20th, finding surface winds of 45 to 50mph but without a well-defined low-level circulation.

Just before the conclusion of the mission, the aircraft was able to isolate a circulation in the southern edge of the convection, prompting the designation as Tropical Storm Irene in the evening of the 20th.

Throughout the 21st, as it moved west-northwest across the extreme northeast Caribbean Sea, it continued to gain strength as the circulation became larger.

It then made a landfall over St. Croix the evening of that day and over Punta Santiago, Puerto Rico early into the next day.

It became a hurricane shortly after the Puerto Rico landfall.

It passed north of Hispaniola throughout the 23rd, and despite being over warm water and low wind shear, the interaction of Irene’s circulation with the mountains of the Island delayed further intensification.

As it moved away from Hispaniola, it quickly intensified and became a Category 3 Major Hurricane with peak intensity of 125mph and a minimum central pressure of 957mb within the 18 nautical mile diameter eye.

However, it wasn’t the lowest pressure observed from Irene as the pressure was observed while the closed eyewall structure became more fractured.

The dropsonde measured a minimum central pressure of 942mb with now decreasing winds of 105mph.

It then made four landfalls in The Bahamas throughout the 24th and 25th.

The hurricane then continued northward and passed far from the eastern coasts of Florida and Georgia.

And on the morning of the 27th, it made landfall near Cape Lookout, North Carolina with an intensity of 85mph with hurricane winds east of the North Carolina Sounds and Outer Banks.

As it continued north-northeast movement just offshore of the Delmarva Peninsula and made landfall over Brigantine Island, New Jersey in the early morning of the 28th, still being a high-end tropical storm with winds of 70mph.

Later into the day, it made landfall over Coney Island, New York and it moved over Manhattan Island.

Swells over the Mid-Atlantic were observed for a couple of days between the North Carolina and New York landfalls.

It continued north-northeast over New England and became extratropical on the 29th near the New Hampshire-Vermont border.

The next day, it was absorbed by a frontal system in northeastern Canada.

Overview

The system was well observed with 19 Air Force Reserve reconnaissance missions and 16 NOAA reconnaissance missions.

Guzabo Abajo, Puerto Rico, recorded the heaviest rain from Irene at 22.05 inches enough to cause flooding.

There were unconfirmed reports of wind gusts of 115mph in Cat Island, The Bahamas.

A pressure reading of 950.4mb, during the afternoon of the 25th, was observed in Marsh Harbour, in the Island of Abacos, The Bahamas.

Large swaths of 5 to 10 inches of rain along the US east coast was recorded with Bayboro, North Carolina recording the highest amount at 15.74 inches.

Largest storm surge was 7 feet in Oregon Inlet, Marina, North Carolina in the late night of 27th.

It also spawned several tornadoes across the Mid-Atlantic with an EF2 tornado that landed in Columbia, North Carolina.

A total of 49 deaths and damages amounting to $14.2B (2011 value) were recorded.

The name was then retired and got replaced by Irma which suffered a similar fate.

Response and Aftermath

Many people underestimated Irene as a Category 1 hurricane, but the storm produced major damage.

Sustained high winds and major flooding together with storm surges caused more damage than anticipated.

Official forecasts were accurate but the populous was largely caught off guard.

“People just did not think that the impacts from a Category 1 would have been so substantial”

John Cole, meteorologist with the NWS in Newport/Morehead City.

To understand the public perception of the threats posed by Hurricane Irene and find out how people responded to the weather forecasts, the NWS held public meetings in some of the communities hardest hit by the storm.

Meetings during December were held in Dare, Pamlico, and Beaufort counties, where participants were surveyed about their experiences and perceptions.

In addition, Rich Bandy, lead meteorologist at the NWS Newport/Morehead City office, presented comparisons of the forecasts for wind, inland flooding and storm surge with observations during and after the storm.

Coastal flooding caused by storm surge was the main threat were people were not prepared enough for.

The NHC correctly forecasted storm surge will be between 6 to 8 feet as the highest storm surge was recorded at 7 feet.

And major flooding across parts of Carteret, Pamlico, Beaufort and Hyde counties and other areas including the entire barrier island chain north of Cape Lookout, and the Pamlico and Neuse river areas was observed.

Improvements

The NHC improved its warning system with better accuracy and longer lead time for preparation and information decimation.

However, making people evacuate remains a problem as people often don’t want to leave.

The NWS and local governments then used social media to reach more people in addition to the traditional TV news networks and newspapers.

“While social media is a way to reach people who do not rely on traditional media, adoption has been slow because many municipalities do not allow employees to access the sites on work computers. One of the lessons from Irene for emergency communicators has been that policies need to be developed about the use of social media, including how it will be staffed when a crisis occurs.”

Roberta Thuman, Town of Nags Head’s public information office.

Conclusion

While Irene was certainly not the strongest storm of the 2010s, it certainly resulted in significant changes in forecasting and forecasting platforms.

The impacts of Irene will likely be remembered for many years to come, even with the more powerful Hurricane Sandy that occurred one year later.

The post Major Hurricane Irene: A Decade Later appeared first on Force Thirteen.