Current Information

As of 18Z on July 3rd, 2024, Beryl was located at 16.8 degrees north, 75.3 degrees west, and was moving west-northwest at approximately 18 mph. The latest outlook from the NHC about Beryl’s stats supported maximum winds of 144 mph and a central pressure of 954 mb.

Current Warnings & Watches

A hurricane warning was recently reissued for the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, indicating that intense hurricane conditions are expected to hit the affected islands. Meanwhile, the NHC issued a hurricane warning for the eastern coasts of the Yucatan peninsula in Mexico while issuing tropical storm watches for the northern portions of the Yucatan peninsula and the southeastern coasts of Belize. Again, if you live in one of the affected areas from Beryl, please monitor additional warnings or watches issued by your national meteorological service within your area.

Current Forecast

As the cone forecast data has shown, as of 11 a.m. EDT today, Beryl will continue to move to the Yucatan peninsula while passing through the southern coasts of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands as a major hurricane for some time. By 8 a.m. EST on Friday, Beryl will land on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, then head into Texas around the following Monday at 8 a.m.

Current Hazards

Hurricane Beryl is now spreading windy tropical conditions to Jamaica and is also expected to bring rainfall of 4 to 8 inches there, making outside preparations dangerous or difficult. Meanwhile, a life-threatening storm surge will rise by up to 2 or 4 feet above sea levels in areas of the Cayman Islands, followed by 3 to 5 feet on the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula. Preparations should be rushed to complete as Beryl will land on the Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands tomorrow night or Friday morning. Evacuate when directed by officials, and stay tuned to your national meteorological service or Force Thirteen for updates. You can also check out Hurricane Beryl’s most recent live tracking here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EEwPe2RPxVk.

The post Major Hurricane Beryl Brushes Through Jamaica, Later Aims for Yucatan Peninsula appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Current Information

As of 18Z on July 2nd, 2024, Beryl was located at 16.2 degrees north, 72.7 degrees west, and was moving west-northwest at a rapid 22 mph. The latest outlook about Beryl’s stats supported maximum winds of 150 mph and a central pressure of 947 mb.

Current Warnings and Watches

Recently, a Hurricane warning was issued for the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, indicating that intense hurricane conditions are expected to hit the affected islands. Meanwhile, a tropical storm warning was issued for Martinique, meaning that tropical storm conditions, including strong winds and heavy rain, are expected within 36 hours. Lastly, a tropical storm and a hurricane watch have been issued on the southern and western coasts of Haiti, Mexico, and Belize. If you live in one of the affected areas from Beryl, please monitor additional warnings or watches issued by your national meteorological service.

Current Forecast

As the cone forecast data has shown for the last few hours, Beryl will continue to move into Jamaica as a major hurricane. By 8 pm EST, Beryl will move inwards to the island of Jamaica, then move into the southern peninsula of Mexico on July 5th at 8 am EST, and then head into Texas around next Sunday at 8 pm.

Current Hazards

Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce heavy rainfall of approximately 4 to 8 inches and bring out strong winds. It will move inland to Jamaica tomorrow, making outside preparations dangerous or difficult. Meanwhile, a life-threatening storm surge will rise by up to 2 or 4 feet above sea levels in areas of the Cayman Islands, followed by 3 to 5 feet on the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula and 6 to 9 feet on the southern coasts of Jamaica. Preparations should be rushed to be completed as Beryl will land in Jamaica tomorrow. Evacuate when directed by officials, and stay tuned to your national meteorological service or Force Thirteen for updates.

The post Major Hurricane Beryl Forecasted to Aim for Jamaica Later appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Replay all of the storms with our 2023 West Pacific Typhoon Season Animation here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzp_u6Kl3d0

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Watch Here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLmXHzft-Q4

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Hurricane Idalia made landfall on Wednesday morning local time in western Florida, near Keaton Beach, as a strong Category 3. The storm’s catastrophic surge devastated some of the coastal communities in the area, and flooding concerns continue as the weakening storm continues through the Carolinas tonight.

Hurricane Franklin is still active near Bermuda, with tropical storm winds straddling the island.

Tropical Storms Haikui and Kirogi are both active in the Western Pacific, with the former likely to impact Taiwan and eastern China with more precipitation in that area. Rainfall of up to 400mm is likely across the mountains of Taiwan and in eastern China, with significant strengthening possible before it reaches land.

Elsewhere, other areas of interest could form later this week into the weekend in the Atlantic and Western Pacific.

Watch our full Tropical Weather Bulletin using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxtrxOpZSc4

The post Category 5 Typhoon Saola headed for Hong Kong – Tropical Weather Bulletin – August 31, 2023 appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Hurricane Fernanda

Hurricane Fernanda formed on Saturday Afternoon and rapidly intensified on Sunday becoming a major hurricane Sunday afternoon with winds currently 125 mph and a pressure of 959 millibars. Fernanda may intensify further into a category 4 hurricane in the next day or so before it begins to weaken as it moves to the West and then northwest. Fernanda should weaken to a tropical storm by late Wednesday and die by the end of the working week. Fernanda follows in the footsteps of Hurricane Dora which strolled across the Eastern and Central Pacific as a strong major hurricane last week, however it is exceedingly unlikely Fernanda treks into the Central Pacific.

Tropical Storm Greg

As for tropical storm Greg, Greg formed on Sunday evening and had sustained winds up to 40 mph. As for the forecast, the forecast should keep Greg as a tropical storm as it moves south of Hawaii and dissipate in the Central Pacific by Friday. In an ironic twist, Greg formed from 99E, named such as the storm formed only .2 degrees East from the Central Pacific cut-off line of 140 degrees West, leaving the name Hone to fall to another system at a later date. By recency, Greg looks to follow the approximate path of Hurricane Dora, skirting the cooled waters left in Dora’s wake.

To the East, there is an Invest that is expected to form in the East Pacific by the end of the week, and the NHC currently gives the system a 90% chance of doing so by Friday and a 50% chance of it doing so by Wednesday.

The post Hurricane Fernanda and Tropical Storm Greg Roll on in the East Pacific appeared first on Force Thirteen.

"Cyclone Mocha has become the most powerful storm since Cyclone Sidr," Azizur Rahman, the head of Bangladesh's Meteorological Department, told.

Current Information 

As of 21z, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has Extremely Severe Cyclone “Mocha” located at 17.8°N, 91.1°E. This is around 270 km South of Chittagong, Bangladesh. Extremely Severe Cyclone Mocha has 3 minutes of sustained winds equivalent to 150 mph (130 Kts/240 Kph) gusting up to 185 mph (160 Kts/300 Kph) and a minimal center pressure of 923 millibars; near Super Cyclone Status as well. The system is currently moving North-Northeastward with a speed of 9 mph (8 Kts/115 Kph.) As of the 18z outlook, our Force Thirteen Cyclone Analyst team has analyzed the system as 160 mph (140 Kts/260 Kph) and a minimal central pressure of 914 mb based on the satellite appearance of it, bringing it to Category 5 equivalent cyclone. 

 In Depth Look – 

Currently, Extremely Severe Cyclone Mocha is present in the North East Bay of Bengal, close to the Myanmar coast. 

Cyclone Mocha is currently located in a very favorable region for intensification with a jet streak and alignment with the shear direction. In addition, very warm sea surface temperatures and robust dual outflow aloft has allowed for rapid intensification. A polar satellite pass measured an eye temperature of over 20°C. This besides a full Cold Medium Grey (CMG) ring using the Dvorak infrared color scale supports a T number of T7.5. This number is 0.5 away from T8.0 which is reserved for only the most powerful tropical cyclones. As explained by one of our forecasters.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had forecast a peak of 140 mph (115 Kts/215 Kph) which will make it the strongest cyclone in the Bay of Bengal since Amphan. Just before landfall, increasing shear might bring minor weakening, possibly bringing it back to an equally destructive Category 4 Cyclone.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center currently forecasts a landfall intensity of 145 mph (125 kts/230 kph) which would make it the strongest landfall in the region since the 1968 Burma Super Cyclone. All signs point to a dangerous and potentially devastating impact in Myanmar and related areas.

Risk Related to Cyclone – 

In advance of the storm’s landfall, weather warnings have been issued by IMD for:

Wind – Gale force winds are forecast for Chittagong (state), Bangladesh, and entire Myanmar Coast with winds in excess of hurricane force being possible at the Arakan Coast near Sittwe, and around Cox’s Bazar.

Sea Conditions – During the passage of the Cyclone, 5-6 meter storm surge is forecast for Barisal, Chittagong (state), Bangladesh and the Arakan coast of Myanmar. Near the region of forecast landfall, near Sittwe and Cox’s Bazar, storm surge can reach up to a height of 15 meters. In the estuary and the tributaries, Gulf of Martaban and Tenasserim coast, storm surge can reach up to a height of 4 meters.

Rainfall – Widespread light to moderate rain with isolated Heavy rainfall is expected in the Southern States of NE India, the Entire Eastern Bangladesh consisting of the Capital City Dhaka, Sylhet, Barisal & Chittagong states of Bangladesh, Entire Myanmar except for Tenasserim coast & Yunnan province of China. In Chauk, 93mm was recorded throughout the course of May 13th due to Mocha.

Others – Due to the extreme wind & rainfall rate, landslide potential is high, particularly in elevated areas. Those in elevated areas should be on high alert!

Fishermen & Port Warning –

Due to the prevailing hazardous conditions, Port Warning 4 was issued from Mongla port in Bangladesh, While Warning No 8 was issued for ports in Barisal & Chittagong area & No 10 for Coxbaxar & Teknaf. Fishermen are requested not to venture around. 

Preparedness – 

Islamic Relief Bangladesh has opened its Emergency Operation Centre (EOC) at the Country’s Office for Cyclone MOCHA response. The Food Security Cluster Coordinator in Bangladesh has joined with the EOC team to monitor the situation and necessary coordination. Mass evacuations have been started in Sittwe as the storm progresses.

The ULA/AA has evacuated more than 30,000 villagers in Rakhine ahead of Cyclone Mocha, according to local news. The National Disaster Management Committee issued a red alert to some northern Rakhine.

Bangladesh officials have begun evacuating Rohingya refugees from risky areas to community centers in preparation for Cyclone Mocha, the most powerful cyclone in two decades.

Mocha stands as a potentially historic storm in the Myanmar/Bangladesh region. All warnings and preparations should be taken in the highest regard. Live coverage on Mocha continues at 01z (7:30 Myanmar Standard Time.) Stay tuned using this link:

The post Cyclone Mocha Poised to Devastate Myanmar Sunday appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Amang has dissipated over the Philippines, with only modest amounts of residual rainfall expected over central and northern Luzon. Further out to sea, an area of interest could develop next week near Chuuk and Pohnpei, in Micronesia.

Watch our full Tropical Weather Bulletin using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cafkSqRKwqM

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LATEST INFORMATION

The National Hurricane Center 10AM update on Major Hurricane Ian states the storm is located at 26.2°N 82.7°W, or about 60 miles (95 km) west of Naples, Florida, or about 65 miles (105 km) southwest of Punta Gordo, Florida. The reconnaissance mission flying over the storm, as of the writing, finds the storm to have maximum 1-minute sustained winds of 155 mph (135 kts / 250 kph) with gusts reaching up to 190 mph (165 kt / 305 kph.) The reconnaissance mission also found out the storm’s minimum central pressure is 937 millibars and is moving towards north-northeast at a speed of 10 mph (9 kts / 17 kph.)

CURRENT WARNINGS

Hurricane Warning is in effect over Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, and Dry Tortugas.

Storm Surge Warning is hoisted over Suwannee River southward to Flamingo, Tampa Bay, Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West, Dry Tortugas, Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River, and St. Johns River.

Tropical Storm Warning is in raised over the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas, Indian Pass to the Anclote River, all of the Florida Keys, Flamingo to South Santee River, Flamingo to Chokoloskee, Lake Okeechobee, Florida Bay, and Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands.

Storm Surge Watch is in effect over Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to east of Big, Pine Key, Florida Bay, and the mouth of St. Mary’s River to South Santee River.

WHAT TO EXPECT?

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause coastal areas to be flooded by the rising waters brought by the storm. Storm surge of up to 18 feet is forecast by the NHC from Englewood to Bonita Beach, and the Charlotte Harbor— that is almost two-stories high if you have a house next to a coast. Storm surges in other parts of the Florida west coast are still life-threatening and could see up to 12 feet.

WINDS: Tropical Storm conditions are currently being felt over central and southwestern Florida, with Hurricane winds coming from the coast as the storms approach Florida Peninsula. These winds can severely damage infrastructures like homes and office buildings, uproot trees, and take down electric poles that could prevent any vehicles trying to get out of the storm.

RAIN: Totals of up to 18 inches, with local totals up to 24 inches are forecast for central and northeastern Florida, including Fort Myers, Tampa, and Orlando. The Florida Keys, south Florida, eastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina could receive as much as 8 inches of rain. These amount of rain is likely to cause flash flooding and coastal flooding especially those that would receive at least a foot of rain. Combined with storm surge, coastal areas are likely to experience higher flood.

TORNADOES: Formation and landfall of tornadoes across central Florida is possible, bringing additional damage to areas to be affected.

Please follow all orders of the local government if you still haven’t. Time has run out to do any significant preparation to the storm, and brace for catastrophic landfall. Force Thirteen hopes everyone that will be affected by the storm will be safe as the storm passes through the state. You can also watch the live landfall coverage of Ian here:

The post Major Hurricane Ian to Bring Catastrophic Damage to Florida appeared first on Force Thirteen.

At least 113 people have been killed due to the torrential rainfall caused by Seroja, with landslides, floods, and other disasters contributing to this. Many more are missing, and unfortunately, we expect that the death toll is higher than what has been recorded thus far. Indonesia and East Timor have been hardest hit by the storm. The storm continues to produce heavy rain for this region but is expected to move out of this region by this time tomorrow.

Seroja’s Future

Seroja is expected to strengthen over the next few days as it moves southwest. It will be moving into an extremely favorable environment to strengthen further, and confidence is high up to 2 days out that this storm will do so. After this period uncertainty grows substantially as a result of Tropical Storm 27S, another system to Seroja’s west, interacting with it. The interaction between these two tropical cyclones raises a lot of questions and has thrown weather models for a loop when it comes to the ultimate outcome of this. Here is what we do know, Seroja is favored to be the dominant system in this interaction and will continue to strengthen, with Force Thirteen forecasting this storm to become an extremely powerful Category 4(SSHWS & AU). What we don’t know is how the track of this storm will be influenced by this interaction, with solutions pointing to anything from Seroja impacting south-western Australia as an extratropical cyclone, to it making a Category 3+ landfall in northwestern Australia. This uncertainty makes it very difficult to pinpoint where or how severe impacts will be for the regions that are expected to be affected by Seroja. We will have much more information on the specifics of impacts and timing as we grow closer to landfall, but this far out with a complicated interaction between two storms, uncertainty is just too high to get into specifics.

For Australia

If you are within the path of this system, from the JTWC, BOM, or F13, it is best to prepare for the worst. There is a possibility that this storm arrives as a Category 3+ cyclone on the doorstep of Western Australia. We will have more information with time on what areas specifically could be impacted by this storm, but for now, if you are anywhere along the west coast of Australia, south of Exmouth, we recommend that you begin preparations now such as stocking up on food, water, and supplies to sustain you through a tropical cyclone.

We will continue to post updates on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, and this website as this situation progresses

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