UNIQUE IDENTIFIER: r
TIME (e.g. 1800 UTC SAT FEB 22 2020): 0900 UTC WED SEP 8 2021
ADVISORY HEADLINE: CONSON TRAVERSING NEAR METRO MANILA


INPUT INTERP ATCF: wp182021 CONSON 20210908 1015 14.39 120.38 W TS 55.0 991.0 7.21 308.82
ADVISORY NUMBER: 1


NEXT ADVISORY TIME (e.g. SEP 16 2021, 1800 UTC)SEP 8 2021, 1800 UTC.

Please allow time for floater to build.

• STORM FLOATER •

  W ()
PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN , 

 
......
 
SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
-----------------------------------
LOCATION...NEAR    ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
-----------------------------------

DISCUSSION
-----------------------------------
TS CONSON IS LOCATED AT 14.1N, 120.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
  SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
  INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
  ANAYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
  SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
  MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.

  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
  THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
  FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
  REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
  BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.

  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
  WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
  OF HIGH SSTS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
  GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.

LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
Japan Meteorological Agency
 

 
$$
Forecaster 

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