Here are a few examples.

Hurricane Patricia (2015) – 75mph to 200mph in 24 hours, 125mph increase
Cyclone Ernie (2017)  – 45mph to 165mph in 12 hours, 85mph increase
Typhoon Hagibis (2019) – 65mph to 180mph in 24 hours, 115mph increase
Hurricane Wilma (2005) – 75mph to 195mph in 24 hours, 120mph increase
Cyclone Veronica (2019) – 85mph to 155mph in 24 hours, 70mph increase

Ambali’s 120 mph increase in 24 hours is extraordinarily rare. While rapidly intensifying storms do happen every year, a storm increasing 120 mph in 24 hours does not. Conditions were nearly perfect for rapid intensification of Ambali. 30C waters were in the storm’s path shortly after formation for at least 2 days, along with wind shear less than 5 knots near the storm’s peak intensity. The storm’s record peak intensity makes it the first Very Intense Tropical Cyclone on the local scale since Fantala in 2016, and the only A name in the basin to reach that status.

As Ambali continues to weaken, Belna is intensifying – and is a significant threat to Madagascar. Stay tuned to Force Thirteen’s various media outlets for the latest on both Ambali & Belna.

The post Cyclone Ambali breaks records, a look back appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Tropical Storm Olga forms in the Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Depression Seventeen formed earlier today, and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Olga at 5 PM EDT Friday with max winds of 40 mph, and a pressure of 998 mb. Olga is forecast to be short lived, and to continue rapidly north-northeast while turning post-tropical before making landfall in Louisiana. Olga is forecast to produce some flash flooding from Louisiana up to Indiana this weekend.

Tropical Storm Pablo forms near the Azores

Tropical Storm Pablo is located 36.0N, 32.6W, or Southwest of the Azores. Maximum sustained winds are 45 miles per hour, along with a pressure of 990 millibars. Pablo is forecast to move northeast towards the Azores, potentially become a hurricane while doing so.

Stay tuned to your local weather forecast office for the latest on Olga and Pablo, as well as Force Thirteen’s Outlets for any video updates we may produce.

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The National Hurricane Center originally gave 97L a 30% chance of development in 48 hours and 5 days, but that was updated to 50% in a Special Tropical Weather Outlook at 9:50 AM EDT. Based on current satellite appearance, designation as a Tropical Depression seems likely today. Organization of 97L meets the requirements of a tropical cyclone, and the center of circulation is very close — if not completely closed off. Most models keep 97L short lived, as it is forecast to merge with an incoming cold front this weekend, which will cause high shear over the system, along with slightly cooler water temperatures due to previous Subtropical Storm Nestor.

97L will cause rough surf, occasional gusts to 40mph, and heavy rainfall along the coasts of Mexico, and the Western Gulf Coast of the US. Stay tuned to your local National Weather Service offices along the US Gulf Coast, the Mexico Weather Agency, and Force Thirteen’s outlets for the latest on 97L.

The post Invest 97L designated in the Gulf of Mexico appeared first on Force Thirteen.

The post Typhoon Lekima now a Category 5 – Video Update appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Southwest Indian Animation
https://youtu.be/xShneF5kBIo

The SWIO Season was above average this season, with a whopping 9 Category 3+ storms forming. The strongest was Cyclone Cilida, which peaked as a Category 5 in December.

Australian Region Animation

https://youtu.be/o02bD8qdla4

The Australian Region was also above average, with Cyclone Veronica in February being the star of the show.

South Pacific Animation

https://youtu.be/xShneF5kBIo

The South Pacific was below average this year, with only 5 tropical storms forming, and none of them reaching Category 3 or higher. In February, Pola was the strongest and final storm of the season.

Intensities

Australian Region

Owen – 85 mph 968 mb

Penny – 65 mph 984 mb

Riley – 80 mph 964 mb

Savannah – 115 mph 945 mb

Trevor – 120 mph 959 mb

Veronica – 155 mph 935 mb

Wallace – 70 mph 983 mb

Lili – 50 mph 1002 mb

Ann – 65 mph 997 mb

South Pacific

Liua – 50 mph 994 mb

Mona – 60 mph 974 mb

Neil – 40 mph 996 mb

Oma – 85 mph 970 mb

Pola – 110 mph 966 mb

South-West Indian

01S – 45 mph 1004 mb

Alcide – 115 mph 965 mb

Bouchra – 60 mph 990 mb

Kenanga – 140 mph 930 mb

Cilida – 160 mph 925 mb

Desmond – 50 mph 994 mb

Eketsang – 40 mph 1002 mb

Funani – 130 mph 935 mb

Gelena – 140 mph 929 mb

Haleh – 130 mph 952 mb

Idai – 140 mph 946 mb

Joaninha – 140 mph 956 mb

Kenneth – 145 mph 936 mb

Lorna – 85 mph 980 mb

As the Southern Hemisphere season animations are finally complete, look forward to the 2000 West Pacific What-might-have-been animation coming to the Force Thirteen YouTube channel soon!

For a recap of the season, see Hank’s article, found here.  https://www.force-13.com/2019/05/16/a-recap-of-the-2018-19-southern-hemisphere-cyclone-season/

The post Force Thirteen Releases 2018-19 SHEM Animations appeared first on Force Thirteen.

No factors are limiting severe thunderstorm development on Monday. CAPE values are around 4-5,000 J/kg, wind shear is going to be incredibly high, though there is still some uncertainty in where the strongest storms will occur. As such, the SPC has given a rather large Moderate risk for North central Texas and central Oklahoma.

Tornado Threat
It appears Tornadoes, probably significant (EF2+), will be the star of the show for Monday. Storms should initiate after 4 PM CDT, and explosively grow in size and strength. We can’t say where the highest tornado threat will exactly be, but we can say with high certainty, strong tornadoes can be expected Monday.

Damaging Winds

Damaging winds are also likely, though they will likely be the dominant feature across New Mexico, and even up around New York City. Significant wind events, maybe a derecho, is likely across the Enhanced risk and above areas.

Significant Hail

Teacup size hail (3 inches) is very large, and is also likely across the area. Larger hail sizes are also possible. Hail will probably be the dominant factor over wind.

To summarize… a significant severe weather event is expected across Texas and Oklahoma, and High Risk issuance, in my opinion, is likely. Where it will be, we cannot say exactly. All modes of severe weather, probably with significant parameters, are likely Monday

Stay tuned to Force Thirteen US for severe weather updates on the Enhanced risk tonight, and the Moderate risk Monday. A live event will occur Monday.

The post Moderate Risk across Tornado Alley Monday appeared first on Force Thirteen.

The post Fani now a Category 5 Cyclone – Video Update appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Fani is expected to track more towards the northeast, making landfall around Puri. Sustained winds at landfall could be still at Category 3 intensity. The JTWC is forecasting slight intensification in the next 12 hours to 125 miles per hour winds, though Fani could slightly intensify even more to Category 4 intensity before landfall. There is good certainty where the landfall will occur, but the largest amount of uncertainty remains is on Fani’s intensity.

As Fani creeps closer to the coastline, stay tuned to Force Thirteen’s media outlets as updates have been ongoing on YouTube.

The post Cyclone Fani approaches India appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Models
Not many models are predicting any sort of development of this system. The GFS runs the system into Florida as a weak disturbance, and tracks it up the coast inland. The NAVGEM is similar to the GFS. The ECMWF potentially develops the system into a weak tropical depression after pulling away. Either way, this system is probably going to be short lived, as shear is currently high over the system, and is expected to remain that way, though it could decrease a little bit, allowing for additional development of the system.

As hurricane season is quickly approaching, only 31 days away as of May 1st, make sure you and your family have a plan in case a hurricane comes to your town. Stay tuned to Force Thirteen, as we will provide any additional updates on this system, if it forms, and additional storms in the future.

The post Atlantic’s first Area of Interest develops appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Impact

Kenneth is a Stage 5 on the CDPS scale, with the main contributor being rainfall, with 600 millimeters forecasted in Mozambique. The JTWC is forecasting a peak of 125 mph in 12 hours, before making a landfall with an intensity around 115 miles per hour, though the storm could be lower – or higher – than that forecast. The HWRF model calls for Kenneth to reach an intensity of 130 knots, or 150 mph. Other models calling for slightly more, some less.

As Kenneth nears the coast of Mozambique, stay informed by your local media outlets, and check Force Thirteen’s various Social Media platforms for any announcements on livestreams that are going to occur.

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