Please allow time for floater to build.
• STORM FLOATER •
S () PUBLIC ADVISORY # FORCE THIRTEEN , ...... SUMMARY OF INFORMATION ----------------------------------- LOCATION...NEAR ... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB WATCHES AND WARNINGS -----------------------------------
DISCUSSION ----------------------------------- LAST NIGHT, DUE TO MODERATE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR, THE MAIN CLOUD MASS DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHED THE COAST OF TANZANIA, IT BENEFITED FROM AN INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION, DEEP CONVECTION REFORMED OVER THE CENTER, ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONSEQUENTLY THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF JOBO IS MAINTAINED STATIONARY. JOBO IS STILL A WEAK SYSTEM SUBJECT TO THE STEERING FLOW OF THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE TROPOSPHERE. JOBO CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE DISPERSION IN THE DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE MODELS IS IMPORTANT IN DIRECTION, NEVERTHELESS JOBO IS APPROACHING THE TANZANIAN COASTS AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED 100 KM OFFSHORE. JOBO IS EXPECTED TO LAND BETWEEN ZANZIBAR AND MOHORO NEXT NIGHT. IT IS MAINLY A WESTERLY MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR THAT WEAKENED JOBO. THIS ONE IS WEAKENING A BIT, BUT THE HIGH TROPOSPHERE SHEAR IS STRENGTHENING AT THE SAME TIME, MAINTAINING A WESTERLY STRESS ON THE SYSTEM. IF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM BENEFITS TEMPORARILY FROM THE APPROACH OF THE COASTS, IT IS A WEAK SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD LAND NEXT NIGHT AND FILL UP QUICKLY WHEN IT ARRIVES ON LAND. IN TERMS OF EXPECTED IMPACTS AT THE LANDING OF JOBO, THE IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED IN TERMS OF WIND BUT HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LANDING AREA BETWEEN ZANZIBAR AND MTWARA, AND EVEN OVER THE NORTH OF MOZANBIQUE. FROM SUNDAY, WE CAN EXPECT TO HAVE ACCUMULATIONS THAT CAN REACH 200/300 MM IN 24 HOURS (EVEN VERY LOCALLY 400 TO 500 MM), THAT IS TO SAY QUANTITIES EQUIVALENT TO THE MONTHLY ACCUMULATION FOR A MONTH OF APRIL.=
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