Watch our animation of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MM86Ghca5RQ

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Hurricane Idalia made landfall on Wednesday morning local time in western Florida, near Keaton Beach, as a strong Category 3. The storm’s catastrophic surge devastated some of the coastal communities in the area, and flooding concerns continue as the weakening storm continues through the Carolinas tonight.

Hurricane Franklin is still active near Bermuda, with tropical storm winds straddling the island.

Tropical Storms Haikui and Kirogi are both active in the Western Pacific, with the former likely to impact Taiwan and eastern China with more precipitation in that area. Rainfall of up to 400mm is likely across the mountains of Taiwan and in eastern China, with significant strengthening possible before it reaches land.

Elsewhere, other areas of interest could form later this week into the weekend in the Atlantic and Western Pacific.

Watch our full Tropical Weather Bulletin using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxtrxOpZSc4

The post Category 5 Typhoon Saola headed for Hong Kong – Tropical Weather Bulletin – August 31, 2023 appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Tomorrow Wednesday, Idalia is expected to make landfall on the western coast of Florida, as there will be heavy rains, strong winds, and storm surges to arrive in the morning. Furthermore, there will be a hurricane warning in some portions of Florida’s west coast and a tropical storm warning in other portions of the east coast in Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina as Idalia was far from the eastern coast areas and will expect to make storm surges, strong winds, and heavy rainfall soon as a tropical storm. A hurricane warning and a tropical storm warning means that a hurricane or a tropical storm is expected to make landfall in your area in the next 36 hours. If your home is vulnerable to strong winds and heavy rainfall, please evacuate to the nearest designated evacuation shelter with your emergency kit or stay indoors and stay away from windows.

Moving forward to the model predictions on Idalia, most models predicted that it will curve towards Florida and then brush towards the coastal areas of Georgia and South Carolina, according to most models. For the sea surface temperatures near Idalia, it will get a little bit warmer to around 28 degrees Celsius, meaning that it’ll favor further intensity in the next few hours. Lastly, for the satellite imagery, we noticed that Idalia swirls toward the panhandle of Florida, as we saw no eyewall, but seen in the radar imagery. Stay tuned to the Force Thirteen website for more article updates!

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LATEST INFORMATION

The National Hurricane Center 10AM update on Major Hurricane Ian states the storm is located at 26.2°N 82.7°W, or about 60 miles (95 km) west of Naples, Florida, or about 65 miles (105 km) southwest of Punta Gordo, Florida. The reconnaissance mission flying over the storm, as of the writing, finds the storm to have maximum 1-minute sustained winds of 155 mph (135 kts / 250 kph) with gusts reaching up to 190 mph (165 kt / 305 kph.) The reconnaissance mission also found out the storm’s minimum central pressure is 937 millibars and is moving towards north-northeast at a speed of 10 mph (9 kts / 17 kph.)

CURRENT WARNINGS

Hurricane Warning is in effect over Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, and Dry Tortugas.

Storm Surge Warning is hoisted over Suwannee River southward to Flamingo, Tampa Bay, Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West, Dry Tortugas, Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River, and St. Johns River.

Tropical Storm Warning is in raised over the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas, Indian Pass to the Anclote River, all of the Florida Keys, Flamingo to South Santee River, Flamingo to Chokoloskee, Lake Okeechobee, Florida Bay, and Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands.

Storm Surge Watch is in effect over Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to east of Big, Pine Key, Florida Bay, and the mouth of St. Mary’s River to South Santee River.

WHAT TO EXPECT?

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause coastal areas to be flooded by the rising waters brought by the storm. Storm surge of up to 18 feet is forecast by the NHC from Englewood to Bonita Beach, and the Charlotte Harbor— that is almost two-stories high if you have a house next to a coast. Storm surges in other parts of the Florida west coast are still life-threatening and could see up to 12 feet.

WINDS: Tropical Storm conditions are currently being felt over central and southwestern Florida, with Hurricane winds coming from the coast as the storms approach Florida Peninsula. These winds can severely damage infrastructures like homes and office buildings, uproot trees, and take down electric poles that could prevent any vehicles trying to get out of the storm.

RAIN: Totals of up to 18 inches, with local totals up to 24 inches are forecast for central and northeastern Florida, including Fort Myers, Tampa, and Orlando. The Florida Keys, south Florida, eastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina could receive as much as 8 inches of rain. These amount of rain is likely to cause flash flooding and coastal flooding especially those that would receive at least a foot of rain. Combined with storm surge, coastal areas are likely to experience higher flood.

TORNADOES: Formation and landfall of tornadoes across central Florida is possible, bringing additional damage to areas to be affected.

Please follow all orders of the local government if you still haven’t. Time has run out to do any significant preparation to the storm, and brace for catastrophic landfall. Force Thirteen hopes everyone that will be affected by the storm will be safe as the storm passes through the state. You can also watch the live landfall coverage of Ian here:

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LATEST INFORMATION

On the 8AM EST advisory of the National Hurricane Center, Major Hurricane Ian was last located at 22.3°N 83.7°W, or about 10 miles (15 km) north-northeast of the City of Piñar del Rio, Cuba, or about 130 miles (240 km) south-southwest of Dry Tortugas, Florida. The storm packs 1-minute sustained winds of 125 mph (205 kph / 110 kts) and gusts reaching up to 155 mph (250 kph / 135 kts.) The storm was estimated to have a minimum central pressure of 952 millibars and is moving north at a speed of 12 mph (19 kph / 10 kts.)

CURRENT WARNINGS

Hurricane Warning is issued over the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa; Bonita Beach to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, and Dry Tortugas in Florida.

Storm Surge Warning is hoisted over Anclote River southward to Flamingo and Tampa Bay

Hurricane Watch is issued over North of Anclote River to the Suwannee River

Storm Surge Watch is issued over the Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West, Dry Tortugas, Florida Bay, Aucilla River to Anclote River, Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line, and the Saint Johns River

Tropical Storm Warning is hoisted over the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas, Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West, Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Suwannee River to the Anclote River, Volusia/Brevard County Line south to Jupiter Inlet, and Lake Okeechobee.

Tropical Storm Watch is in effect north of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, Altamaha Sound to Volusia/Brevard County line, and Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet.

WHAT TO EXPECT?

TRACK AND INTENSITY: Major Hurricane Ian is forecast to slightly intensify in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico at 145 mph (120 kts / 230 kph) tomorrow. After this intensification, the storm is expected to slowly weaken up until its landfall over the Tampa Bay Area on Thursday morning.

STORM SURGE: Central Florida, including the Tampa Bay area is forecast to experience storm surge up to 10 feet. Other parts of the state could experience anywhere from 1 to 8 feet of storm surge. These storm surges could cause coastal inundation and flooding.

RAINFALL: Six inches up to a foot of rainfall is still forecast over Western Cuba as the storm rainbands continue to affect the island. In the Central portion of Florida, totals of up to 16 inches are forecast. And in the rest of the state, rain gauges could still measure up to 10 inches. This amount of rainfall will cause widespread flooding and rivers overflowing.

WIND: Hurricane-force winds over western Cuba are still expected Tuesday, strength of these winds should reduce as the Ian moves north. Floridian west coast up to Central Florida is forecast to experience gale-force winds tonight and hurricane-force winds starting Wednesday morning. These winds could destroy homes, uproot trees, and take down electric poles.

TORNADOES: As the storm moves over the Southeastern United States, tornadoes could form on Wednesday morning.

Please heed the evacuation on several counties across the State of Florida and for more information, go to https://www.floridadisaster.org/evacuation-orders/. For more localized forecast you can refer to NWS Offices across the state like NWS Key West (https://www.weather.gov/key/), NWS Tampa Bay (https://www.weather.gov/tbw/), NWS Miami (https://www.weather.gov/mfl/), NWS Tallahassee (https://www.weather.gov/tae/), and NWS Jacksonville (https://www.weather.gov/jax/).

The post Major Hurricane Ian Makes Landfall in Cuba, Set to Impact Florida appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Current Information

As of 11am Eastern Standard Time, Hurricane Ian is located at 19.1 degrees north and 82.7 degrees west, or about 100 miles west of Grand Cayman, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (130 kph), with gusts up to 100 mph (155 kph), and a central pressure of 980 millibars. The storm is currently moving northwest at 13 mph (20 kph).

Current Warnings

A Hurricane Warning, meaning hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours, is in effect for:

• Grand Cayman
• Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Warning, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours, is in effect for:

• Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
• Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
• Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch, meaning there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours, is in effect for:

• Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
• Dry Tortugas
• Florida Bay
• Anclote River southward to the Card Sound Bridge
• Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch, meaning hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours, is in effect for:

• Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours, is in effect for:

• Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
• Englewood southward to Flamingo
• Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge
• Lake Okeechobee

Current Forecast

Ian is set to continue rapid intensification as it turns north-northwest, and become a major hurricane by tomorrow as it reaches western Cuba. From there, the hurricane is forecast to peak in the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with winds of 140 mph (220 kph), before weakening into a Category 2 due to a combination of strong southwesterly shear and dry air, and hit Florida with the same intensity. The storm is then forecast to weaken into a tropical storm as it moves inland.

Current Hazards

Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash floods and possible mudslides are the main hazards for Ian as the aforementioned threats are expected in portions of western Cuba beginning this evening and continuing into Tuesday. Devastating wind damage is possible where the core of Ian moves across western Cuba.

Hurricane-force winds are possible in the hurricane watch area in west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions possible by late Tuesday.

Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall associated with rainbands may lead to flooding across all of South Florida. Rainfall totals may range 3 to 8 inches through Thursday with locally higher amounts possible, and the risk could extend later into the week. This may result in significant flooding impacts. Peak storm surge values of 3 to 5 feet are possible along the Southwest Florida coast mainly between Tuesday night and Wednesday night. This could lead to significant and life-threatening storm surge flooding.

Tornadoes may be embedded in showers and thunderstorms within the outer rainbands associated with the system. Main concern is from tonight through Wednesday. Hazardous marine and beach conditions are expected with a high risk for rip currents across all South Florida beaches. Elevated surf conditions are expected along the Gulf coast.

Stay safe from this storm, and listen to local officials for recommended preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately. Force Thirteen will be live this afternoon, and you can watch it through here:

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Today marks 10 years since Hurricane Irene struck Cape Lookout, North Carolina, causing 49 direct deaths and spawned several tornadoes prior to landfall.

Storm Synopsis

On August 15th, 2011 a tropical wave exited the west coast of Africa accompanied by a large area of clouds and thunderstorms. 

The wave would soon become a tropical storm and eventually a hurricane, bringing severe impacts along the US East Coast.

The storm’s convection diminished passing south of the Cabo Verde Islands the next day, but it maintained its mid-level circulation.

Thunderstorm activity regenerated as it continued to move westward across the tropical Atlantic and became organized halfway between the Lesser Antilles and west coast of Africa.

A reconnaissance aircraft investigated the system on the 20th, finding surface winds of 45 to 50mph but without a well-defined low-level circulation.

Just before the conclusion of the mission, the aircraft was able to isolate a circulation in the southern edge of the convection, prompting the designation as Tropical Storm Irene in the evening of the 20th.

Throughout the 21st, as it moved west-northwest across the extreme northeast Caribbean Sea, it continued to gain strength as the circulation became larger.

It then made a landfall over St. Croix the evening of that day and over Punta Santiago, Puerto Rico early into the next day.

It became a hurricane shortly after the Puerto Rico landfall.

It passed north of Hispaniola throughout the 23rd, and despite being over warm water and low wind shear, the interaction of Irene’s circulation with the mountains of the Island delayed further intensification.

As it moved away from Hispaniola, it quickly intensified and became a Category 3 Major Hurricane with peak intensity of 125mph and a minimum central pressure of 957mb within the 18 nautical mile diameter eye.

However, it wasn’t the lowest pressure observed from Irene as the pressure was observed while the closed eyewall structure became more fractured.

The dropsonde measured a minimum central pressure of 942mb with now decreasing winds of 105mph.

It then made four landfalls in The Bahamas throughout the 24th and 25th.

The hurricane then continued northward and passed far from the eastern coasts of Florida and Georgia.

And on the morning of the 27th, it made landfall near Cape Lookout, North Carolina with an intensity of 85mph with hurricane winds east of the North Carolina Sounds and Outer Banks.

As it continued north-northeast movement just offshore of the Delmarva Peninsula and made landfall over Brigantine Island, New Jersey in the early morning of the 28th, still being a high-end tropical storm with winds of 70mph.

Later into the day, it made landfall over Coney Island, New York and it moved over Manhattan Island.

Swells over the Mid-Atlantic were observed for a couple of days between the North Carolina and New York landfalls.

It continued north-northeast over New England and became extratropical on the 29th near the New Hampshire-Vermont border.

The next day, it was absorbed by a frontal system in northeastern Canada.

Overview

The system was well observed with 19 Air Force Reserve reconnaissance missions and 16 NOAA reconnaissance missions.

Guzabo Abajo, Puerto Rico, recorded the heaviest rain from Irene at 22.05 inches enough to cause flooding.

There were unconfirmed reports of wind gusts of 115mph in Cat Island, The Bahamas.

A pressure reading of 950.4mb, during the afternoon of the 25th, was observed in Marsh Harbour, in the Island of Abacos, The Bahamas.

Large swaths of 5 to 10 inches of rain along the US east coast was recorded with Bayboro, North Carolina recording the highest amount at 15.74 inches.

Largest storm surge was 7 feet in Oregon Inlet, Marina, North Carolina in the late night of 27th.

It also spawned several tornadoes across the Mid-Atlantic with an EF2 tornado that landed in Columbia, North Carolina.

A total of 49 deaths and damages amounting to $14.2B (2011 value) were recorded.

The name was then retired and got replaced by Irma which suffered a similar fate.

Response and Aftermath

Many people underestimated Irene as a Category 1 hurricane, but the storm produced major damage.

Sustained high winds and major flooding together with storm surges caused more damage than anticipated.

Official forecasts were accurate but the populous was largely caught off guard.

“People just did not think that the impacts from a Category 1 would have been so substantial”

John Cole, meteorologist with the NWS in Newport/Morehead City.

To understand the public perception of the threats posed by Hurricane Irene and find out how people responded to the weather forecasts, the NWS held public meetings in some of the communities hardest hit by the storm.

Meetings during December were held in Dare, Pamlico, and Beaufort counties, where participants were surveyed about their experiences and perceptions.

In addition, Rich Bandy, lead meteorologist at the NWS Newport/Morehead City office, presented comparisons of the forecasts for wind, inland flooding and storm surge with observations during and after the storm.

Coastal flooding caused by storm surge was the main threat were people were not prepared enough for.

The NHC correctly forecasted storm surge will be between 6 to 8 feet as the highest storm surge was recorded at 7 feet.

And major flooding across parts of Carteret, Pamlico, Beaufort and Hyde counties and other areas including the entire barrier island chain north of Cape Lookout, and the Pamlico and Neuse river areas was observed.

Improvements

The NHC improved its warning system with better accuracy and longer lead time for preparation and information decimation.

However, making people evacuate remains a problem as people often don’t want to leave.

The NWS and local governments then used social media to reach more people in addition to the traditional TV news networks and newspapers.

“While social media is a way to reach people who do not rely on traditional media, adoption has been slow because many municipalities do not allow employees to access the sites on work computers. One of the lessons from Irene for emergency communicators has been that policies need to be developed about the use of social media, including how it will be staffed when a crisis occurs.”

Roberta Thuman, Town of Nags Head’s public information office.

Conclusion

While Irene was certainly not the strongest storm of the 2010s, it certainly resulted in significant changes in forecasting and forecasting platforms.

The impacts of Irene will likely be remembered for many years to come, even with the more powerful Hurricane Sandy that occurred one year later.

The post Major Hurricane Irene: A Decade Later appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Eta is a threat to Cuba and Florida. Rainfall potential is expected to reach 6-10 inches of rainfall for parts of Florida and the Bahamas. Storm surge is expected to reach 2-3ft for the Floridan Coastal areas.

Tropical Storm Warnings, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours, are in effect for The Cuban Provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avilla, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas. Tropical Storm Warnings are also in effect for The Cayman Islands, Northwestern Bahamas, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahaman Island, and New Providence. For the Floridan Coast, Golden Beach to Chokoloskee, and the Floridan Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas.

Tropical Storm Watches, meaning tropical storm conditions are likely within 48 hours, The Cuban Provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio,and The Isle of Youth. Tropical Storm Watches are also in effect for the Floridan Coast north of Golden Beach to the Brevard/Volusia county line, Florida west coast of Chokoloskee to Englewood, and Lake Okeechobee.

Significant, life-threatening, flash and river flooding will be possible for Cuba, along with landslides. It would be also possible for The Cayman Islands, Jamaica, The Bahamas, and Southern Florida.

References:
NHC https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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