Indian Ocean Archives - Force Thirteen

Cyclone Dikeledi Makes landfall in Mozambique as a Category 2

Force Thirteen — Mon, 13 Jan 2025 18:51:05 +0000

Overview

Cyclone Dikeledi made landfall in the Nampula province of Mozambique at around 16:00 CAT, today, January 13, 2025 (according to observations from the Force Thirteen team) with a pressure of 975mb and a wind speed of 100mph(160km/h). It is now moving south-south-west and will start to change to a southeasterly direction at 8 AM or so La Reunion time on Tuesday, where it is likely to pass to the south of Madagascar.

Cyclone Dikeledi is forecast to make a southeasterly turn this evening, with the storm likely to stay in the Gulf of Madagascar. However, shower and thundershower activity associated with Dikeledi could produce heavy rainfall across portions of Western Madagascar.

Rainfall Accumulation Estimates

Cyclone Dikeledi can be expected to bring around 250mm of rain to areas of the Mozambique coast, whilst showers and thunderstorms associated with the storm could produce up to 350mm in areas of Western Madagascar as the storm moves southeast. As anticipated, the main hazard with the storm is rainfall, which could produce flash floods and mudslides.

Latest rainfall graphic from Force Thirteen, showing potential for 250 to 350mm of rainfall across Madagascar and Mozambique. (Yellow – 250mm, Red – 350mm.)

Stay up to date with the latest from Force Thirteen by visiting our Youtube channel, linked here!

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Cyclone Dikeledi Moves Towards Northern Madagascar

Force Thirteen — Fri, 10 Jan 2025 16:47:45 +0000

Cyclone Dikeledi is currently heading in a westerly direction towards the Northern coast/tip of Madagascar where it will drop 250mm+ of rain as it passes by.

Current Warnings

Météo Madagascar currently has heavy rain, strong wind, and heavy swell warnings in place for areas across the northwestern and northeastern parts of the coast with the heavy swell warning stretching all the way down to the western coast.

Rainfall

Cyclone Dikeledi can be expected to bring 10 inches and above to the northern coast of Madagascar and up to 6 inches or so once it reaches the northwestern coast of Mozambique.

Current Hazards:

Cyclone Dikeledi’s main hazards will be rough seas, strong winds, and heavy rainfall over the next couple of days as it continues its path over Madagascar into the Mozambique channel.

Check out our latest full update on Cyclone Dikeledi using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XnMmDUT6MJ8

Current Meteo France forecast cone for Cyclone Dikeledi at time of article release.

Current forecast rainfall over portions of Madagascar as Cyclone Dikeledi progresses westward.

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Cyclone Hidaya Nears the Coast of Tanzania – Video Update

Force Thirteen — Fri, 03 May 2024 14:36:48 +0000

Cyclone Hidaya peaked this morning as a strong Category 1 hurricane equivalent storm, and is still holding on to a lot of its strength as it draws nearer to the coast of Tanzania. Whilst it’s still unclear exactly where landfall will occur, it’s looking more likely that it will be near Mafia Island. The storm is expected to rapidly weaken as it reaches land, and some signs of weakening are already becoming apparent. However, strong winds of over 50 miles per hour (80kph) and torrential rainfall with accumulations of up to 12 inches (300mm) are possible, causing structural damage and flash flooding. There remains the possibility, as suggested by Meteo France, that the storm will curve completely away from land, but not before producing storm conditions along coastal areas tonight and tomorrow.

Watch our full update on Cyclone Hidaya using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QSD8gPLVD8

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Cyclone threat increasing for Madagascar and Mauritius

Force Thirteen — Mon, 25 Mar 2024 13:20:13 +0000

A tropical disturbance continues to build up off the coast of northern Madagascar, and is expected to ramp up in intensity later this week. The system is already producing large amounts of rain, and that is set to continue as the storm deepens. Forecasts call for potentially a Category 3 peak as it moves very slowly near Madagascar, before making for the Mascarene islands near the end of the week and swiping Mauritius and Réunion. Whilst confidence in the forecast is increasing, there is still a fair amount of wriggle room, especially with regards to timing, and some model scenarios still put the storm over or even to the west of Madagascar. Suffice to say, rapid intensification is likely to occur at some point, and a recurvature to the southeast is also likely later on. This is likely to put the Mascarene islands at risk of strong cyclonic winds and high rainfall.

Watch our full update on this system here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-vnejoyA4w

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Cyclone Eleanor Forecast to Rapidly Intensify as it Approaches Mauritius (Video Update)

Force Thirteen — Tue, 20 Feb 2024 18:42:17 +0000

Cyclone Eleanor is posed to threaten Mauritius this week, as the storm expected to intensify as it nears the island nation later this week. Eleanor will likely make a close pass to Mauritius. Catch the latest on Cyclone Eleanor with a video update from our team here:

Watch Here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XYR9ynD6CU

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Watch Live Coverage of Cyclone Belal on our Youtube Page!

Force Thirteen — Sun, 14 Jan 2024 16:58:11 +0000

Cyclone Belal continues to intensify, and is now a Category 2 on the Saffir Simpson Scale as it draws closer to the island of Réunion in the southwest Indian Ocean. The storm is developing a decent eye and winds are now near 100 miles per hour (160kph), and these winds may affect the islands especially on Monday. Rainfall amounts are also expected to become serious, with up to 500mm possible on the island of Réunion. Later on in the forecast, the track of Belal will become more uncertain, with the potential for the storm to stall completely or even turn back towards the islands.

Force Thirteen is live and covering Belal on our Youtube page at release of this post. Watch our coverage here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1quCNPSseQ

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Cyclone Belal a threat to Réunion, Mauritius

Force Thirteen — Sat, 13 Jan 2024 16:29:30 +0000

Cyclone Belal is now a severe tropical storm according to Météo-France La Réunion, as it starts to rapidly intensify on approach to the Mascarene Islands, where a powerful landfall is expected over Réunion by Monday afternoon.

Current information

As of 16:00 RET (12:00 UTC), Belal is located near 16.8 degrees south, 54.0 degrees east, or approximately 475 km (295 mi) to the north-northwest of Réunion, and 520 km (323 mi) to the north-northwest of Mauritius. It is currently moving southwest at 24 km/h (15 mph).

Belal is rapidly intensifying according to the the Météo-France La Réunion (MFR), as it rapidly developed a central dense overcast with cold cloud tops, along with strong lightning activity being reported. The MFR has estimated Belal to have 10-minute sustained winds of 100 km/h (65 mph), with gusts up to 150 km/h (90 mph), and a central pressure of 986 hectopascals. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has Belal with 1-minute sustained winds of 100 km/h, a tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Current warnings

As of this writing, a yellow cyclone pre-alert is currently in effect for Réunion, and a class I cyclone warning for Mauritius.

Current forecast

The latest MFR forecast cone for Belal.

Under an environment of 30-31°C sea surface temperatures, little to no shear and excellent upper-level divergence, Belal is forecast to continue rapidly intensifying in the next 36 hours to attain a peak intensity of 200 km/h (125 mph) by Monday morning, an intense tropical cyclone, according to the MFR. The JTWC’s forecasted peak intensity is slightly low from the MFR forecast, with 195 km/h (120 mph), a category 3-equivalent tropical cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson scale. As it reaches that peak intensity, it is expected to turn to the southeast as the westerlies over Madagscar weaken the deep-layered subtropical ridge to the east of the system. Both the MFR and JTWC agree on a Réunion landfall by Monday night, although the former has noted the uncertainty that the cyclone may pass within 100–150 km of the island.

Afterwards, the system is forecast by the JTWC to continue on a southeast direction as the subtropical ridge reorients to the northeast of the system; however, there is potential for Belal to slow down as the subtropical ridge builds back, creating a competing steering environment between a ridge to the west, and leads to some uncertainty in the coming week.

Current hazards

The tropical-storm-force wind probabilities from Belal for the next 5 days, according to TSR.

In Réunion, the MFR has alerted that gale-force winds will start to be felt from Sunday evening, and hurricane-force winds by Monday. Heavy rainfall is also expected in the next 24 hours, with 200–400mm (8–16 in) over the lower areas of the island and 1,000–1,500mm (39–59 in) over higher grounds from Sunday evening until Monday when Belal is expected to make landfall.

In Mauritius & Rodrigues, the following information is from our partners at MeteoHub – Mauritius:

Today, 13/01: External cloud bands associated with the system will cross the island during the day and tonight. Rainy periods are expected. There will be gusts of 60-70 mph below the rain.
Sunday 14/01: The weather will remains cloudy with rainy periods. Showers will be moderate to strong at times with thunderstorms and gusts of 80 to 90 km/h per moment.
In Rodrigues, clouds associated with the system will cause showers, with thunderstorms and gusts of 50-70 km/h, interrupted by temporary calming. Showers will be moderate to strong at times with thunderstorms. Some water accumulation is possible.

Monday 15/01: The weather will remain heavily rainy and windy. Rainfall will cause water accumulation and flooding. Gusts will be dangerous for trees, infrastructure and fragile housing especially at night. Cyclonic conditions (gusts in excess of 120 km/h) are possible overnight into Tuesday morning.

A class II cyclone warning for Mauritius is possible for tomorrow. The cyclonic wave could reach 3-4 meters on Sunday and 5-6 meters on Monday, and 7-10 meters on Tuesday morning. In addition, the MFR expects 100–200mm (4–8 in) of rainfall starting from Monday to Tuesday.

As the storm continues to threaten the Mascerenes, you should complete your preliminary precautions. Stay tuned to the MFR and the Mauritius Meteorological Services for the latest information, and to us and our partners MeteoHub – Mauritius as the system progresses.

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Track of Cyclone Mocha (Video)

Force Thirteen — Tue, 09 Jan 2024 22:44:04 +0000

Cyclone Mocha was a very destructive Category 5 equivalent cyclone in the Bay of Bengal in May of 2023. Mocha made landfall as a Category 4 equivalent just north of Sittwe, Myanmar, causing severe damage. Cyclone Mocha was, in addition, the first Category 5 storm in the North Indian Ocean basin since Cyclone Amphan of May 2020. Watch our full track animation for Cyclone Mocha using the link below!

Watch Here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLmXHzft-Q4

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Developing Cyclone Headed for Eastern India – December 2, 2023

Force Thirteen — Sat, 02 Dec 2023 00:29:15 +0000

A tropical disturbance that we’ve been monitoring for several days is finally coming together, and is likely to become a tropical cyclone later today. By the end of the weekend, the storm is likely to make landfall near or to the north of Chennai, before pulling inland and turning northwards, where it will die out fairly quickly. Before it strikes, winds within the storm could reach 60 miles per hour (100kph), and rainfall totals could reach 14 inches (350mm) near the western and southern sides of the storm’s core.

In the South Pacific, another tropical disturbance is starting to take shape as it heads towards the Solomon Islands. The system is likely to quickly develop into a tropical cyclone, and strengthen further before pulling away into the Coral Sea. It is possible that this potential storm could reach hurricane strength whilst still over some of the islands. At the moment, models are supportive of further and potentially rapid strengthening in the Coral Sea, towards Category 3 status next week. The late part of the forecast remains very uncertain, but at the moment storm impacts cannot be ruled out anywhere from Mackay to Sydney, and for New Caledonia.

Watch our full Tropical Weather Bulletin using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5VgfYEjA8I

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Jamaica on Alert for New Storm – Tropical Weather Bulletin – November 17, 2023

Force Thirteen — Fri, 17 Nov 2023 15:03:04 +0000

A potential tropical cyclone has been designated in the western Caribbean, and Tropical Storm Watches are now in effect for Jamaica, eastern Cuba, Haiti, southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos islands. All of these locations could receive strong winds and heavy rainfall which could exceed 250mm in some areas. As a result, flooding is also a possibility as this short lived fast moving storm powers through the region.

In the Bay of Bengal, a tropical storm is drawing nearer to the coast of West Bengal and Bangladesh, with winds near 45 miles per hour (72kph). The storm is expected to wash ashore near Bhola island in the next 24 hours before rapidly weakening. Some strengthening is likely before landfall.

In the Western Pacific, the remnants of Tropical Depression 17W are still active, and are likely to dump large amounts of rain over the Philippines starting tomorrow. Rainfall amounts in parts of the eastern Visayas and southern Luzon could approach 700mm.

Watch Friday’s Tropical Weather Bulletin using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqGUCfxtHfI

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