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Current Information

As of 18Z on July 3rd, 2024, Beryl was located at 16.8 degrees north, 75.3 degrees west, and was moving west-northwest at approximately 18 mph. The latest outlook from the NHC about Beryl’s stats supported maximum winds of 144 mph and a central pressure of 954 mb.

Current Warnings & Watches

A hurricane warning was recently reissued for the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, indicating that intense hurricane conditions are expected to hit the affected islands. Meanwhile, the NHC issued a hurricane warning for the eastern coasts of the Yucatan peninsula in Mexico while issuing tropical storm watches for the northern portions of the Yucatan peninsula and the southeastern coasts of Belize. Again, if you live in one of the affected areas from Beryl, please monitor additional warnings or watches issued by your national meteorological service within your area.

Current Forecast

As the cone forecast data has shown, as of 11 a.m. EDT today, Beryl will continue to move to the Yucatan peninsula while passing through the southern coasts of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands as a major hurricane for some time. By 8 a.m. EST on Friday, Beryl will land on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, then head into Texas around the following Monday at 8 a.m.

Current Hazards

Hurricane Beryl is now spreading windy tropical conditions to Jamaica and is also expected to bring rainfall of 4 to 8 inches there, making outside preparations dangerous or difficult. Meanwhile, a life-threatening storm surge will rise by up to 2 or 4 feet above sea levels in areas of the Cayman Islands, followed by 3 to 5 feet on the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula. Preparations should be rushed to complete as Beryl will land on the Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands tomorrow night or Friday morning. Evacuate when directed by officials, and stay tuned to your national meteorological service or Force Thirteen for updates. You can also check out Hurricane Beryl’s most recent live tracking here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EEwPe2RPxVk.

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Current Information

As of 18Z on July 2nd, 2024, Beryl was located at 16.2 degrees north, 72.7 degrees west, and was moving west-northwest at a rapid 22 mph. The latest outlook about Beryl’s stats supported maximum winds of 150 mph and a central pressure of 947 mb.

Current Warnings and Watches

Recently, a Hurricane warning was issued for the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, indicating that intense hurricane conditions are expected to hit the affected islands. Meanwhile, a tropical storm warning was issued for Martinique, meaning that tropical storm conditions, including strong winds and heavy rain, are expected within 36 hours. Lastly, a tropical storm and a hurricane watch have been issued on the southern and western coasts of Haiti, Mexico, and Belize. If you live in one of the affected areas from Beryl, please monitor additional warnings or watches issued by your national meteorological service.

Current Forecast

As the cone forecast data has shown for the last few hours, Beryl will continue to move into Jamaica as a major hurricane. By 8 pm EST, Beryl will move inwards to the island of Jamaica, then move into the southern peninsula of Mexico on July 5th at 8 am EST, and then head into Texas around next Sunday at 8 pm.

Current Hazards

Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce heavy rainfall of approximately 4 to 8 inches and bring out strong winds. It will move inland to Jamaica tomorrow, making outside preparations dangerous or difficult. Meanwhile, a life-threatening storm surge will rise by up to 2 or 4 feet above sea levels in areas of the Cayman Islands, followed by 3 to 5 feet on the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula and 6 to 9 feet on the southern coasts of Jamaica. Preparations should be rushed to be completed as Beryl will land in Jamaica tomorrow. Evacuate when directed by officials, and stay tuned to your national meteorological service or Force Thirteen for updates.

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Typhoon Lan strengthened rapidly in the last 24 hours, and could seriously affect the Ogasawara island chain with winds of over 100 miles per hour and heavy rainfall, which could reach 500mm. Rainfall from both of these storms are likely to cause widspread areas of 300mm accumulations. Lan could continue towards the mainland of Japan, including the Tokyo region, and could make landfall there as a significant typhoon.

Hurricane Dora continues to roll on through the Central Pacific, and is now located well to the south of Hawaii. Its winds are still at high end Category 3 range, and only slow weakening is expected. The storm is expected to pass south of Johnstone Atoll, and could strike Wake Island as a weak tropical storm.

Several areas of interest are also active, with three low chance AOIs in the next seven days. At least one of these systems is more likely to form later on in the forecast period.

Watch our full Tropical Weather Bulletin using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMtNItu2cV4

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Another storm could branch out of Khanun’s influence to the east, and at present some models suggest that it could become a potent tropical storm on its own and affect southern or eastern Japan this weekend or early next week.

In the Eastern Pacific, compact Tropical Storm Dora is intensifying, and could reach hurricane status soon if the internal structure improves. The storm’s small size and current position is very favourable for rapid intensification as it moves out to sea. Behind Dora, another area of interest now has a half chance of becoming a tropical cyclone, with some models depicting a mature hurricane by early next week. The coast of Mexico could receive some difficult conditions from this potential storm, but it should largely remain at sea.

Watch our Tropical Weather Bulletin in full by using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIzXbjaaWtQ

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Five years ago today, on August 25th 2017, Major Hurricane Harvey ended the twelve-year US major hurricane landfall drought, bringing devastating impacts across parts of Texas and Louisiana during the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

A historic storm, Harvey made landfall near Rockport, TX as a powerful category four hurricane with winds of 130mph, and a pressure of 934 millibars at 10pm CDT on the 25th.

Despite Harvey’s impressive intensity, the greatest threat from the storm became record-setting rainfall, which resulted in incredible totals, as some areas recorded fifty inches of rain.

As of 2022, Hurricane Harvey still remains as one of the costliest natural disasters in US history, with a price tag estimated at $134 billion.

Sadly, 89 lives were lost during the disaster.

Five years later, the storm serves as a poignant reminder of the power of mother nature, as well as the inevitability of natural disasters.

Storm Synopsis

Despite most, if not all, damages caused by Hurricane Harvey being located in Texas, Louisiana and surrounding areas, Harvey developed over 2,500 miles away from the coast of Texas, developing from a tropical wave in the main development region on August 18th.

As a weak tropical storm, the storm moved west and made two landfalls, one in Barbados and the other in St. Vincent island, both as a moderate tropical storm.

Minor impacts were dealt to the islands as the storm continued to drift west, eventually dissipating into a remnant low on the 19th.

For four days, the remnants of Harvey continued to drift west, crossing the Yucatan on the 22nd and 23rd.

As the storm crossed, the National Hurricane Center marked the possibility of redevelopment from the disturbance as it entered the Gulf of Mexico.

As the storm re-emerged off of the coast of the Yucatan, the storm slowly began to recover tropical storm characteristics, and gained Tropical Storm status during the early hours of the 24th, with a forecasted tropical storm landfall in Texas.

However, Harvey had other plans, and began to rapidly intensify on the 24th, quickly becoming a hurricane during the afternoon, only 12 hours after it had regained tropical storm status.

Intensification of the storm continued further, as the storm gained major hurricane status the next day on the 25th, hours prior to landfall.

Harvey’s rapid intensification stage is of great note, as the storm continually intensified up until the landfall in Rockport, Texas, a relative rarity of tropical systems.

Government officials and media outlets, including Force Thirteen began emphasizing the dangerous nature of the storm, as Hurricane Watches and Warnings were put in place, as evacuation orders were mandated by state and local officials.

As a whole, Force Thirteen held over thirty hours of coverage from Harvey’s redevelopment to the devastating impacts as the storm trudged through Texas.

However, as Harvey made landfall, it became apparent; if it had not been, that the storm would be historic.

Harvey’s intense wind field delivered catastrophic damage across South Texas, resulting in significant structural damage and tree damage for towns in the eyewall, such as Port Aransas and Rockport.

Despite intense winds, the greatest threat from the storm ultimately proved to be flooding rains, which exceeded over five feet in some locations as the storm stalled over Central Texas.

As a result of two to three feet of rain, significant flooding occurred, resulting in the damage of over 200,000 homes and businesses.

Ultimately, Hurricane Harvey is considered to be a historic hurricane for a multitude of reasons, from its incredible intensification to the heart-breaking damages occurred by the storm’s wrath in Texas and Louisiana.

Harvey was ultimately retired from the naming list, being replaced with Harold which will be used in 2023.

Five years on, Harvey is still a fresh memory in the eyes of many Texans, and will be for many years to come.

Force Thirteen’s Report

For more in-depth information, you can watch Force Thirteen’s full report on Hurricane Harvey using this link: https://youtu.be/pk6k9kMfGVk

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Today marks 10 years since Hurricane Irene struck Cape Lookout, North Carolina, causing 49 direct deaths and spawned several tornadoes prior to landfall.

Storm Synopsis

On August 15th, 2011 a tropical wave exited the west coast of Africa accompanied by a large area of clouds and thunderstorms. 

The wave would soon become a tropical storm and eventually a hurricane, bringing severe impacts along the US East Coast.

The storm’s convection diminished passing south of the Cabo Verde Islands the next day, but it maintained its mid-level circulation.

Thunderstorm activity regenerated as it continued to move westward across the tropical Atlantic and became organized halfway between the Lesser Antilles and west coast of Africa.

A reconnaissance aircraft investigated the system on the 20th, finding surface winds of 45 to 50mph but without a well-defined low-level circulation.

Just before the conclusion of the mission, the aircraft was able to isolate a circulation in the southern edge of the convection, prompting the designation as Tropical Storm Irene in the evening of the 20th.

Throughout the 21st, as it moved west-northwest across the extreme northeast Caribbean Sea, it continued to gain strength as the circulation became larger.

It then made a landfall over St. Croix the evening of that day and over Punta Santiago, Puerto Rico early into the next day.

It became a hurricane shortly after the Puerto Rico landfall.

It passed north of Hispaniola throughout the 23rd, and despite being over warm water and low wind shear, the interaction of Irene’s circulation with the mountains of the Island delayed further intensification.

As it moved away from Hispaniola, it quickly intensified and became a Category 3 Major Hurricane with peak intensity of 125mph and a minimum central pressure of 957mb within the 18 nautical mile diameter eye.

However, it wasn’t the lowest pressure observed from Irene as the pressure was observed while the closed eyewall structure became more fractured.

The dropsonde measured a minimum central pressure of 942mb with now decreasing winds of 105mph.

It then made four landfalls in The Bahamas throughout the 24th and 25th.

The hurricane then continued northward and passed far from the eastern coasts of Florida and Georgia.

And on the morning of the 27th, it made landfall near Cape Lookout, North Carolina with an intensity of 85mph with hurricane winds east of the North Carolina Sounds and Outer Banks.

As it continued north-northeast movement just offshore of the Delmarva Peninsula and made landfall over Brigantine Island, New Jersey in the early morning of the 28th, still being a high-end tropical storm with winds of 70mph.

Later into the day, it made landfall over Coney Island, New York and it moved over Manhattan Island.

Swells over the Mid-Atlantic were observed for a couple of days between the North Carolina and New York landfalls.

It continued north-northeast over New England and became extratropical on the 29th near the New Hampshire-Vermont border.

The next day, it was absorbed by a frontal system in northeastern Canada.

Overview

The system was well observed with 19 Air Force Reserve reconnaissance missions and 16 NOAA reconnaissance missions.

Guzabo Abajo, Puerto Rico, recorded the heaviest rain from Irene at 22.05 inches enough to cause flooding.

There were unconfirmed reports of wind gusts of 115mph in Cat Island, The Bahamas.

A pressure reading of 950.4mb, during the afternoon of the 25th, was observed in Marsh Harbour, in the Island of Abacos, The Bahamas.

Large swaths of 5 to 10 inches of rain along the US east coast was recorded with Bayboro, North Carolina recording the highest amount at 15.74 inches.

Largest storm surge was 7 feet in Oregon Inlet, Marina, North Carolina in the late night of 27th.

It also spawned several tornadoes across the Mid-Atlantic with an EF2 tornado that landed in Columbia, North Carolina.

A total of 49 deaths and damages amounting to $14.2B (2011 value) were recorded.

The name was then retired and got replaced by Irma which suffered a similar fate.

Response and Aftermath

Many people underestimated Irene as a Category 1 hurricane, but the storm produced major damage.

Sustained high winds and major flooding together with storm surges caused more damage than anticipated.

Official forecasts were accurate but the populous was largely caught off guard.

“People just did not think that the impacts from a Category 1 would have been so substantial”

John Cole, meteorologist with the NWS in Newport/Morehead City.

To understand the public perception of the threats posed by Hurricane Irene and find out how people responded to the weather forecasts, the NWS held public meetings in some of the communities hardest hit by the storm.

Meetings during December were held in Dare, Pamlico, and Beaufort counties, where participants were surveyed about their experiences and perceptions.

In addition, Rich Bandy, lead meteorologist at the NWS Newport/Morehead City office, presented comparisons of the forecasts for wind, inland flooding and storm surge with observations during and after the storm.

Coastal flooding caused by storm surge was the main threat were people were not prepared enough for.

The NHC correctly forecasted storm surge will be between 6 to 8 feet as the highest storm surge was recorded at 7 feet.

And major flooding across parts of Carteret, Pamlico, Beaufort and Hyde counties and other areas including the entire barrier island chain north of Cape Lookout, and the Pamlico and Neuse river areas was observed.

Improvements

The NHC improved its warning system with better accuracy and longer lead time for preparation and information decimation.

However, making people evacuate remains a problem as people often don’t want to leave.

The NWS and local governments then used social media to reach more people in addition to the traditional TV news networks and newspapers.

“While social media is a way to reach people who do not rely on traditional media, adoption has been slow because many municipalities do not allow employees to access the sites on work computers. One of the lessons from Irene for emergency communicators has been that policies need to be developed about the use of social media, including how it will be staffed when a crisis occurs.”

Roberta Thuman, Town of Nags Head’s public information office.

Conclusion

While Irene was certainly not the strongest storm of the 2010s, it certainly resulted in significant changes in forecasting and forecasting platforms.

The impacts of Irene will likely be remembered for many years to come, even with the more powerful Hurricane Sandy that occurred one year later.

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