UNIQUE IDENTIFIER: r
TIME (e.g. 1800 UTC SAT FEB 22 2020): 0900 UTC WED SEP 8 2021
ADVISORY HEADLINE: LARRY STILL HOLDING ON A AS A MAJOR HURRICANE


INPUT INTERP ATCF: al122021 LARRY 20210908 1015 26.66 -57.42 L HU 99.31 967.0 10.18 323.23
ADVISORY NUMBER: 4


NEXT ADVISORY TIME (e.g. SEP 16 2021, 1800 UTC)SEP 8 2021, 2100 UTC.

Please allow time for floater to build.

• STORM FLOATER •

  L ()
PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN , 

 
......
 
SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
-----------------------------------
LOCATION...NEAR    ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
-----------------------------------
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda


DISCUSSION
-----------------------------------
Larry's overall satellite presentation has not changed appreciably
overnight, however there has been some recent cooling of the cloud
tops in the surrounding ring of convection.  A fairly recent AMSR2
microwave overpass has revealed a fragmented inner eye with a band
or ring of convection at a fairly large radius from the center.
Subjective Dvorak Current Intensity (CI) numbers from TAFB and SAB
are T5.0 (90 kt) while objective UW/CIMSS ADT T-numbers are around
T5.8 (110 kt).  A consensus of these estimates, and the latest
SATCON estimate of 100 kt, is used as the initial intensity for this
advisory.  The next Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Larry this morning and should provide in
situ data to help better ascertain the intensity and structure of
the hurricane.

The hurricane is forecast to remain within an area of low vertical
wind shear for the next day or two, but the upper-ocean heat
content will be gradually decreasing along the forecast path.
This, along with some upwelling beneath the relatively slow-moving
hurricane, is likely to result in gradual weakening over the next
couple of days.  After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and
much colder SSTs along the forecast track should result in 
additional weakening.  The global models indicate that Larry will 
merge with a frontal zone and complete its extratropical transition 
in a little more than 3 days.

LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
 

 
$$
Forecaster 

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