• STORM FLOATER •
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23L (WILFRED)
***FINAL BULLETIN***
PUBLIC ADVISORY #4
FORCE THIRTEEN SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE
1510 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020

...WILFRED WEAKEN DOWN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

SUMMARY OF 1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------
LOCATION...NEAR 15.7 N 44.2 W...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35MPH...55KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
-----------------------------------
NO WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION
-----------------------------------
First-light visible imagery of Wilfred shows a well-defined center 
south of widespread - but not very well banded - deep convection.  
The improved positioning this morning allows for a more confident 
assessment of its movement toward the west-northwest at 17 kt.  As 
the system slowly winds down, it will be increasingly steered by 
the low-level flow indicating a slower movement toward the west or 
west-northwest until dissipation.  The new track forecast is 
slightly farther west due to the faster initial motion within 36 
hours, then slightly farther east afterward based upon the TVCN 
track consensus approach.

While the ASCAT scatterometer passes this morning missed Wilfred's 
center, ASCAT-B observed 30 kt peak winds in its northeastern 
quadrant.  This value is used as the initial intensity, consistent 
with both SAB and TAFB's Dvorak classifications. 

The combination of outflow from Hurricane Teddy as well as winds on 
the southern side of an impinging upper-level trough are causing 
about 20 kt vertical shear from the west-northwest.  This shear 
should increase over the next couple of days as Wilfred gets into 
closer proximity with the trough.  The strong shear and dry 
mid-level humidities should continue to cause a reduction of the 
deep convection and lead to the system becoming a remnant low in a 
couple of days followed within another day or so by dissipation.  
All statistical and dynamical intensity guidance is in agreement 
with this scenario. Alternatively, Wilfred could become a remnant 
low sooner, if the convection ceases later today or Monday.

• RAMMB Multi-Model Diagnostic Comparison •
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

THIS IS THE LAST REGULARLY SCHEDULED BULLETIN, NO MORE BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED.

$$
Forecaster Knack
• OFFICIAL FWC-N FORECAST •
• NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST •

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