YOUR SURNAME: knack
YOUR CITY: singapore
YOUR STATE: singapore
TIME (e.g. 1800 UTC SAT FEB 22 2020): 1920 UTC THU MAR 4 2021
ADVISORY HEADLINE: MARIAN APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY ACQUIRING EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS


INPUT INTERP ATCF: sh222021 MARIAN 20210304 1915 -22.55 94.71 S TS 44.69 993.0 8.42 147.35
ADVISORY NUMBER: 13


NEXT ADVISORY TIME (e.g. SEP 16 2021, 1800 UTC)

Please allow time for floater to build.

• STORM FLOATER •

   ()
PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN , 

    
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...NEAR    ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
    
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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DISCUSSION
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The focus of convection around Marian is now positioned in the southern and
eastern quadrants over the past 6 hours. There is still good confidence in the
position of the system due to a recent Scatterometry pass. Marian is currently
over 24-25C sea surface temperatures, experiencing low shear and looped
satellite imagery indicates good poleward outflow.

Dvorak analysis: DT=3.0 with curve band analysis ranging from 0.65-0.75. MET=3.0
based a steady trend. PAT yielded 3.0. FT/CI at 3.0. CIMSS and NESDIS ADT agree
on CI=2.3 32 knot 1-min wind. SATCON is at 46 knots 1-min [1501 UTC]. The
current intensity at 45 knots.

Over the next couple of days Marian will track south southeast under the
influence of mid-latitude trough to the southwest. The system is forecast to
maintain tropical cyclone intensity over the next 18-24 hours in a low shear
environment, however SST's of 24-25C will prevent any further intensification. 

During Friday Marian is expected to encounter a high shear environment whilst
also being influenced by some dry air which will all act to weaken the system.
Marian will likely struggle to maintain vertical structure and weaken below
tropical cyclone intensity Friday night/Saturday morning however gales may still
continue into Sunday on the southern flank due to the interaction with ridge to
the south.

Latest model guidance is consistent with maintaining the system at tropical
cyclone intensity over the next 48 hours. The current forecast diverges from
this guidance and follows a conceptual model that deteriorating environmental
conditions during Friday [unfavourable SSTs, high shear and dry air] will
ultimately weaken the system below cyclone intensity by Saturday morning.

LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
Bureau of Meteorology
    

    
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Forecaster 
• OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST •

• BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY FORECAST •

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