Cooper S., Author at Force Thirteen https://www.force-13.com/author/coopers Worldwide Cyclone Tracking Since 2011 Sat, 03 Oct 2020 22:41:41 +0000 en-GB hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 https://www.force-13.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/cropped-F13Blue-32x32.png Cooper S., Author at Force Thirteen https://www.force-13.com/author/coopers 32 32 Gamma Moving over the Yucatan Peninsula; Watching the Caribbean and Central Atlantic https://www.force-13.com/gamma-moving-over-the-yucatan-peninsula-watching-the-caribbean-and-central-atlantic https://www.force-13.com/gamma-moving-over-the-yucatan-peninsula-watching-the-caribbean-and-central-atlantic#comments Sat, 03 Oct 2020 21:00:24 +0000 http://www.force-13.com/?p=5036 Tropical Storm Gamma made landfall on Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula earlier today, and was very close...

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Tropical Storm Gamma made landfall on Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula earlier today, and was very close to hurricane strength as it made its way onshore. Maximum winds at landfall were 70 mph (110 km/h), and the minimum central pressure was 980 mb. Gamma is the twenty-fourth named storm of the record-breaking 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, and is the earliest such storm on record; Hurricane Beta of 2005 was the previous record holder when it developed on October 26. Gamma is expected to weaken slightly as it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula, and is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Elsewhere in the North Atlantic, there are three other systems worth mentioning, with a tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea warranting a close eye.

Tropical Storm Gamma: Current Storm Information

The National Hurricane Center’s 5-day forecast track and cone of uncertainty for Tropical Storm Gamma as of Advisory Number 6 at 21:00 UTC October 3.

As of the National Hurricane Center’s most recent advisory on Gamma at 5:00 PM EDT (21:00 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near 20.7°N, 87.7°W, about 35 mi (60 km) north-northwest of Tulum, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with gusts to 75 mph (120 km/h), the minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches), and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. Gamma is moving toward the northwest at around 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight and Sunday with a decrease in forward speed. A turn to the west or west-northwest is expected to begin Sunday night or Monday. On the NHC forecast track, the center of Gamma will continue to move over the Yucatan Peninsula today and move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Gamma is expected to continue weakening today while it is over the Yucatan Peninsula, but some restrengthening will be possible when the center moves back over water by Sunday afternoon. Afterward, little change in strength is expected as Gamma meanders over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Forecast Track, Intensity Guidance, and Hazards Affecting Land

Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma from the National Hurricane Center.

Gamma’s future is rather uncertain at this time, and current official forecasts are of rather low confidence. Steering currents are expected to be rather weak over the Gulf of Mexico as a weak ridge builds over the area. The global models suggest that Gamma will be moving slowly westward over the Gulf of Mexico next week, perhaps losing some latitude as the ridge builds. By midweek, the cyclone will likely be over the Bay of Campeche, although details of the track forecast beyond that time are rather uncertain. Although some restrengthening may occur after the center of Gamma moves over the Gulf of Mexico, the dynamical model guidance is not very supportive of any significant intensification. The track and intensity guidance could be further complicated by another system (Invest 92L) currently located over the central Caribbean Sea, which could develop into a tropical cyclone next week.

Gamma is expected to continue to produce heavy rainfall for the next several days over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, southeastern Mexico, Central America, and western Cuba. The storm is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated amounts of up to 12 inches. Total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and isolated totals of 8 inches are expected over eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and northwestern Nicaragua. In western Cuba and the Cayman Islands, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals of 5 inches can be expected. A Tropical Storm Warning is currently in effect from Punta Allen to Dzilam, Mexico, including the city of Cozumel, and a Tropical Storm Watch is currently in effect from Dzilam to Progreso, Mexico. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to continue within the warning area on the eastern Yucatan Peninsula through the next several hours, and should spread across the remainder of the warning area on Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions will be possible in the watch area beginning on Monday.

Watching the Caribbean Sea, Central Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center’s 5-day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook for 2:00 PM EDT Saturday, October 3.

In addition to Gamma, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring three other disturbances for tropical cyclone development. The first and most important of which is Invest 92L, a tropical wave which is located over the Central Caribbean Sea. This system has been given a medium (60 percent) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next five days as it moves westward to west-northwestward over the Caribbean Sea, where environmental conditions are expected to support further development of this system. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible with this system across Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system. In the central Atlantic Ocean, two more systems are being monitored for tropical cyclone development. The first is a tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic; some slight development of this system is possible as it moves generally northwestward during the next few days. The second is a surface trough that constitutes the remnants of former Hurricane Paulette, which is located over the central Atlantic to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Some slow development of this system will be possible during the next few days before it encounters an unfavorable atmospheric environment by midweek.

External Links

Please refer to the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service websites for further information regarding Tropical Storm Marco as well as watches and warnings in effect. Force Thirteen will be live with tonight’s Tropical Weather Bulletin, covering Tropical Storm Gamma, Hurricane Marie, and the rest of the tropics on the Force Thirteen YouTube channel at 8:00 PM EDT (00:00 UTC). More information can be found at Force Thirteen’s official outlets, including its Twitter and Facebook pages.

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Hurricane Laura Makes Potentially Catastrophic Landfall in Southwestern Louisiana https://www.force-13.com/hurricane-laura-makes-potentially-catastrophic-landfall-in-southwestern-louisiana https://www.force-13.com/hurricane-laura-makes-potentially-catastrophic-landfall-in-southwestern-louisiana#respond Thu, 27 Aug 2020 05:50:29 +0000 http://www.force-13.com/?p=4541 Hurricane Laura has made landfall near Cameron, Louisiana, as a potentially catastrophic Category 4 hurricane...

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Hurricane Laura has made landfall near Cameron, Louisiana, as a potentially catastrophic Category 4 hurricane tonight. At 1:00 AM CDT (06:00 UTC August 27), the center of the eye of Hurricane Laura moved onshore near Cameron, Louisiana. Maximum sustained winds at landfall were 150 mph (240 km/h), with gusts of up to 185 mph (295 km/h) and the minimum central pressure was 938 mb (27.70 inches). Below is the latest information on Hurricane Laura, as well as external links to Force Thirteen’s live coverage on Laura and official information from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the National Weather Service (NWS).

Hurricane Laura: Current Storm Information

The National Hurricane Center’s 5-day forecast track and cone of uncertainty for Hurricane Laura as of Advisory Number 29A at 06:00 UTC August 27.

As of the National Hurricane Center’s most recent advisory on Laura at 1:00 PM CDT (06:00 UTC), Doppler radar data indicated that the center of the eye of Hurricane Laura has made landfall near Cameron, Louisiana, near 29.8°N, 93.3°W. Laura is currently located about 30 mi (45 km) south-southwest of Lake Charles, Louisiana, and about 40 mi (70 km) east of Port Arthur, Texas. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with gusts to 185 mph (295 km/h) and the storm’s minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches). Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 mi (335 km) from the center, and Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 mi (95 km) from the center. Laura is moving toward the north at around 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion should continue through today. A northeastward and then east-northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight and Friday. On the NHC’s forecast track, the center of Laura will continue to move inland over Louisiana through this afternoon, move into Arkansas tonight, over the Mississippi Valley on Friday, and into the Mid-Atlantic states on Saturday. Laura is forecast to weaken quickly as it moves inland, but is expected to remain a hurricane through the afternoon, and a tropical storm through Friday evening. By Saturday, Laura is forecast to become post-tropical as it accelerates northeastward toward the western Atlantic.

Key Messages and Hazards Affecting Land

Key Messages for Hurricane Laura from the National Hurricane Center.

Extremely dangerous winds associated with the eyewall of Laura are moving onshore in southwestern Louisiana, accompanied by an extremely dangerous storm surge and heavy rainfall. This is a LIFE-THREATENING situation, and anyone caught in the core of Laura should take shelter immediately. Move to higher ground and shelter in an interior room of a building to protect yourself from rapidly-rising water and extreme winds. These extremely dangerous conditions are occuring across a large area from Port Arthur, Texas, to Rockefeller Wildlife Range in Louisiana. Unsurvivable storm surge, with peak surge heights of 15 to 20 feet from Johnson Bayou to Rockefeller Wildlife Range and with significant surge heights of up to 3 feet and greater occuring as far east as the mouth of the Misssissippi River and as far west as Galveston Bay. This dangerous storm surge could extend as far as 40 miles (70 km) inland, and waters may not recede for several days after the storm has passed.

Hurricane Warnings are currently in effect for much of southwestern Louisiana and extreme eastern Texas, with Tropical Storm Warnings extending eastward into southeastern Louisiana, westward into eastern Texas, and northward into southern Arkansas. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area through the morning, with tropical storm conditions spreading northward within the warning area through the day. Total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 12 inches are anticipated across Laura’s projected track, with the greatest amounts expected in western Louisiana, eastern Texas, and southern and central Arkansas. This heavy rainfall may lead to widespread freshwater and flash flooding, as well as rapid rises in small streams, creeks, and rivers. Additionally, there is a significant risk for tornadoes across much of Louisiana, southeastern Texas, and southwestern Mississippi through today in association with Laura, and continue throughout the day, extending into southern Arkansas. Large swells produced by Laura are expected to continue across much of the U.S Gulf Coast through today, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Continue to refer to the National Hurricane Center and your local NWS office for the latest information on Hurricane Laura.

External Links

Please refer to the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service websites for further information regarding Hurricane Laura as well as watches and warnings in effect. Force Thirteen is currently providing live coverage on Laura on the Force Thirteen YouTube channel at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=liaqfwJ20zE, and will continue to do so as conditions warrant. More information can be found at Force Thirteen’s official outlets, including its Twitter and Facebook pages.

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Tropical Storms Hernan and Iselle form in the Northeastern Pacific; Neither Expected to Significantly Impact Land https://www.force-13.com/tropical-storms-hernan-and-iselle-form-in-the-northeastern-pacific-neither-expected-to-significantly-impact-land https://www.force-13.com/tropical-storms-hernan-and-iselle-form-in-the-northeastern-pacific-neither-expected-to-significantly-impact-land#respond Wed, 26 Aug 2020 22:45:49 +0000 http://www.force-13.com/?p=4531 While powerful Category 4 Major Hurricane Laura menaces the western U.S Gulf Coast, two new...

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While powerful Category 4 Major Hurricane Laura menaces the western U.S Gulf Coast, two new tropical cyclones are stirring up the open waters of the Northeastern Pacific. Their names are Hernan and Iselle, and both developed earlier this morning in quick succession, with Iselle following closely behind Hernan. Hernan and Iselle are the eighth and ninth named storms, respectively, of the 2020 Northeastern Pacific hurricane season, and the fourth and fifth in the month of August. Hernan is located a few hundred miles off the Mexican coast, and is embedded within a broad monsoon gyre that is producing heavy rainfall over portions of southern Mexico and Central America. Iselle is located well offshore, and is not expected to affect land over the next several days.

Tropical Storm Hernan: Current Storm Information

The National Hurricane Center’s 5-day forecast track and cone of uncertainty for Tropical Storm Hernan as of Advisory Number 3 at 21:00 UTC August 26.

As of the National Hurricane Center’s most recent advisory on Hernan at 4:00 PM CDT (21:00 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hernan was located near 17.7°N, 105.8°W, about 185 mi (300 km) south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, and about 445 mi (720 km) southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with gusts to 50 mph (85 km/h), the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches), and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. Hernan is moving toward the northeast at around 6 mph (9 km/h), and a turn to the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the northwest on Thursday, and to the west-northwest on Friday. On the NHC’s forecast track, the center and strongest winds and precipitation associated with Hernan is expected to remain just off the southwest coast of Mexico. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours. Hernan is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression late Thursday, and become a remnant low late Friday. There are no tropical cyclone watches or warnings currently in effect, and Hernan is not expected to threaten land at any point in the next five days.

Tropical Storm Iselle: Current Storm Information

The National Hurricane Center’s 5-day forecast track and cone of uncertainty for Tropical Storm Iselle as of Advisory Number 2 at 21:00 UTC August 26.

As of the National Hurricane Center’s most recent advisory on Iselle at 4:00 PM CDT (21:00 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located near 15.5°N, 116.8°W, about 680 mi (1095 km) southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with gusts to 50 mph (85 km/h), the minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches), and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. Iselle is moving toward the northeast at around 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a turn to the north and then northwest over the weekend. Little change in strength is expected through the next several days. By the weekend, Iselle is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression, and then degenerate into a remnant low shortly afterward. There are no tropical cyclone watches or warnings currently in effect, and Hernan is not expected to threaten land at any point in the next five days.

External Links

For more information regarding Tropical Storms Hernan and Iselle, visit Force Thirteen’s official outlets at the official Force Thirteen YouTube channelTwitter, and Facebook pages. Force Thirteen is currently running continuous live coverage on Hurricane Laura as it approaches the U.S Gulf Coast at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=liaqfwJ20zE. You can also view Force Thirteen’s 24/7 cyclone live stream at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJTfMtzpanQ, which includes Hurricane Laura, Tropical Storms Hernan and Iselle, and Typhoon Bavi.

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Strengthening Hurricane Laura a Significant Threat to the U.S Gulf Coast https://www.force-13.com/strengthening-hurricane-laura-a-significant-threat-to-the-u-s-gulf-coast https://www.force-13.com/strengthening-hurricane-laura-a-significant-threat-to-the-u-s-gulf-coast#respond Tue, 25 Aug 2020 22:50:01 +0000 http://www.force-13.com/?p=4498 After becoming a hurricane earlier this morning, Hurricane Laura has continued to strengthen and become...

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After becoming a hurricane earlier this morning, Hurricane Laura has continued to strengthen and become better organized as it continues its trek toward the U.S Gulf Coast. Laura is the twelfth named storm and fourth hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, and the third named storm and second hurricane in the month of August, following Marco by just two days. The Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters have been flying into the storm on a nearly continuous basis today, and continue to find a strengthening hurricane that is quickly becoming better organized. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) anticipates continued strengthening through the next 36 hours, and Laura is expected to be a Category 3 major hurricane when it moves inland near the Texas/Louisiana border.

Hurricane Laura: Current Storm Information

The National Hurricane Center’s 5-day forecast track and cone of uncertainty for Hurricane Laura as of Advisory Number 24A at 00:00 UTC August 26.

As of the National Hurricane Center’s most recent advisory on Laura at 7:00 PM CDT (00:00 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located near 25.0°N, 89.0°W, about 435 mi (700 km) southeast of Lake Charles, Louisiana, and about 465 mi (745 km) southeast of Galveston, Texas. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (130 km/h) with gusts to 105 mph (165 km/h) and the storm’s minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 mi (280 km) from the center, and Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 mi (75 km) from the center. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest at around 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion should continue overnight. A turn toward the northwest is expected to begin on Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should continue thereafter. On the NHC’s forecast track, the center of Laura is forecast to move inland near the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts early Thursday, and continue moving inland thereafter. A northeastward turn should begin on Friday, followed by a generally east-northeastward to eastward motion through the weekend. Laura is forecast to continue strengthening through the next 36 hours, and it is expected to become a Category 3 major hurricane late Wednesday, and maintain that status until landfall. Rapid weakening is expected as Laura moves inland, with it expected to weaken below hurricane status on Friday, and below tropical storm status on Friday. Laura is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone over the weekend as it accelerates rapidly northeastward into the western Atlantic Ocean.

External Links

Please refer to the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service websites for further information regarding Hurricane Laura as well as watches and warnings in effect. Daily updates and Force Thirteen’s live satellite feed of Hurricane Genevieve can be found on the Force Thirteen YouTube channel at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABfejcNeHK4. Force Thirteen will also be providing live coverage on Laura beginning tonight, and will continue to do so as long as conditions warrant. More information can be found at Force Thirteen’s official outlets, including its Twitter and Facebook pages.

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Tropical Storm Bavi Expected to Strengthen Significantly on Approach to the Korean Peninsula https://www.force-13.com/tropical-storm-bavi-expected-to-strengthen-significantly-on-approach-to-the-korean-peninsula https://www.force-13.com/tropical-storm-bavi-expected-to-strengthen-significantly-on-approach-to-the-korean-peninsula#respond Sat, 22 Aug 2020 15:00:12 +0000 http://www.force-13.com/?p=4439 Earlier today, the low pressure system which the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and East...

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Earlier today, the low pressure system which the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and East Asian regional meteorological offices have been monitoring for the past couple of days, was designated as Tropical Storm Bavi, the eighth named storm of the 2020 Northwestern Pacific typhoon season. Since then, Bavi has been on a nearly continuous strengthening trend, although this seems to have paused recently. Nevertheless, Bavi is forecast to strengthen significantly over the next few days as it moves slowly northwestward. By early next week, the cyclone is expected to accelerate northward, and could impact the western Japanese islands and the Korean Peninsula as a potentially significant typhoon.

Tropical Storm Bavi: Current Storm Information

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s 5-day forecast track and cone of uncertainty for Tropical Storm Bavi as of Warning Number 5 at 15:00 UTC August 22.

As of the most recent bulletin from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center at 15:00 UTC (00:00 JST), the center of Tropical Storm Bavi (09W) was located near 25.3°N, 123.8°E, about 200 km (125 mi) east-northeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum 1-minute sustained winds are near 95 km/h (60 mph), with gusts to 120 km/h (75 mph), and maximum 10-minute sustained winds are near 100 km/h (60 mph). The minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches), and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 km (115 mi) from the center. Bavi is moving toward the west-northwest at around 21 km/h (13 mph), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. Afterward, a gradual turn to the north is expected through Monday, with an increase in forward speed beginning shortly afterward. On the JTWC forecast track, the center of Bavi will pass just to the east of Jeju, South Korea, on Wednesday, and move inland over the Korean Peninsula shortly afterward. Strengthening is expected over the next few days as Bavi remains in a quite favorable environment for intensification, and it is forecast to attain typhoon status on Sunday. Further strengthening is expected thereafter, and Bavi is forecast to become a Category 3-equivalent (on the Saffir-Simpson scale) typhoon by Tuesday. Some weakening is then anticipated before Bavi reaches the Korean Peninsula, with rapid weakening anticipated thereafter as the system moves inland.

Forecast Track, Intensity Guidance, and Hazards Affecting Land

Bavi is expected to become a potent typhoon over the East China Sea by early next week, and this is reflected by nearly all the dynamical guidance and the global models + ensembles. Although there is still uncertainty in exactly where Bavi will make landfall, and it is too soon to determine the magnitude of impacts, interests in the southwestern Japanese islands, Korean Peninsula, and northeastern China should closely monitor the progress of Bavi. Further, and possibly significant, adjustments in the track and intensity forecast for Bavi are possible during the next few days, and users should closely monitor this situation for further updates.

Please refer to to your local meteorological office for further information regarding Tropical Storm Bavi as well as watches and warnings in effect. Daily updates on Tropical Storm Bavi can be found on the Force Thirteen YouTube channel. More information can be found at Force Thirteen’s official outlets, including its Twitter and Facebook pages.

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Tropical Storm Marco Forms over the Northwestern Caribbean; Forecast to Strengthen as a Potential Threat to the U.S Gulf Coast https://www.force-13.com/tropical-storm-marco-forms-over-the-northwestern-caribbean-forecast-to-strengthen-as-a-potential-threat-to-the-u-s-gulf-coast https://www.force-13.com/tropical-storm-marco-forms-over-the-northwestern-caribbean-forecast-to-strengthen-as-a-potential-threat-to-the-u-s-gulf-coast#respond Sat, 22 Aug 2020 02:50:22 +0000 http://www.force-13.com/?p=4415 Tropical Depression Fourteen, which formed over the western Caribbean Sea on Thursday, has become better...

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Tropical Depression Fourteen, which formed over the western Caribbean Sea on Thursday, has become better organized this evening. An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft investigating the system confirmed that the depression has strengthened, and, accordingly, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has reclassified it as Tropical Storm Marco. It is the thirteenth named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, and the fourth in the month of August, following closely behind currently active Tropical Storm Laura, as well as tropical storms Josephine and Kyle from last week. Marco is currently located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, about midway between Honduras and the Yucatàn Peninsula, and is forecast to strengthen over the next several days as it moves generally northwestward over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Marco is expected to pass near the Yucatàn Peninsula tomorrow, where it could be near hurricane strength, and approach the U.S Gulf Coast early next week, and interests in this region should keep a close eye on this tropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Marco: Current Storm Information

The National Hurricane Center’s 5-day forecast track and cone of uncertainty for Tropical Storm Marco as of Advisory Number 7 at 03:00 UTC August 22.

As of the National Hurricane Center’s most recent advisory on Marco at 11:00 PM EDT (15:00 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located near 18.7°N, 84.9°W, about 180 mi (290 km) southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with gusts to 50 mph (85 km/h), the minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches), and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. Marco is moving toward the north-northwest at around 13 mph (65 km/h), and a slightly slower northwestward motion is expected through the next few days, followed by an increase in forward speed early next week. On the NHC’s forecast track, the center of Marco will approach the eastern coast of the Yucatàn Peninsula tomorrow, and move over the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Additional strengthening is expected through Saturday, and Marco could be near hurricane strength when it nears the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Slight weakening is currently expected before Marco reaches the U.S Gulf Coast, although the NHC forecast is of high uncertainty.

Forecast Track, Intensity Guidance, and Hazards Affecting Land

Key messages for Tropical Storm Marco from the National Hurricane Center.

Both the track and intensity aspects of Marco’s forecast are rather uncertain at this time. Model track guidance shows considerable spread, with the weaker GFS and ECMWF ensembles taking a weaker Marco further westward over the western Gulf of Mexico towards the Texas coast. On the other hand, the stronger HWRF and HMON solutions depict a stronger cyclone tracking generally northward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Currently, the NHC forecast track lends more weight to the former, and shows Marco moving generally northwestward until moving over the upper Texas coast early next week. As for how strong Marco might get, both the GFS and ECMWF show very little development, whereas the dynamical guidance is more supportive of strengthening. Marco is a rather small tropical cyclone, and it is well known that small cyclones such as Marco are often prone to rapid changes in intensity, both upwards and downwards. For now, the NHC intensity forecast shows Marco strengthening to a peak of 70 mph (105 km/h), with weakening occuring as it approaches the Gulf Coast due to an expected increase in vertical wind shear from a strong upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. There is also the possibility that Marco’s track and intensity could be influenced by Tropical Storm Laura, which is forecast to be approaching the Gulf of Mexico as Marco is already present. Given the high uncertainty in the forecast, stay alert for potentially large changes in future advisories.

External Links

Please refer to the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service websites for further information regarding Tropical Storm Marco as well as watches and warnings in effect. Daily updates and Force Thirteen’s live satellite feed of Tropical Storm Marco can be found on the Force Thirteen YouTube channel at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TFVWVMvELo. More information can be found at Force Thirteen’s official outlets, including its Twitter and Facebook pages.

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Powerful Category 4 Hurricane Genevieve Expected to Impact Portions of the Baja California Peninsula Wednesday https://www.force-13.com/powerful-category-4-hurricane-genevieve-expected-to-impact-portions-of-the-baja-california-peninsula-wednesday https://www.force-13.com/powerful-category-4-hurricane-genevieve-expected-to-impact-portions-of-the-baja-california-peninsula-wednesday#respond Tue, 18 Aug 2020 11:45:39 +0000 http://www.force-13.com/?p=4324 Hurricane Genevieve has continued its long stretch of rapid strengthening, and is now a Category...

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Hurricane Genevieve has continued its long stretch of rapid strengthening, and is now a Category 4 major hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Genevieve is the seventh tropical storm, third hurricane, and second major hurricane of the 2020 Northeastern Pacific hurricane season. Environmental conditions are expected to support further rapid strengthening during the next 12 to 18 hours, and Genevieve is expected to make a close pass to the Baja California Peninsula, where tropical storm conditions are expected beginning Wednesday. By then, the cyclone will likely have lost some of its strength, but Genevieve is expected to still be a powerful hurricane through Thursday.

Hurricane Genevieve: Latest Storm Information

The National Hurricane Center’s 5-day forecast track and cone of uncertainty for Hurricane Genevieve as of Advisory Number 9 at 15:00 UTC August 18.

As of the National Hurricane Center’s most recent advisory on Genevieve at 8:00 AM PDT (15:00 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Genevieve was located near 18.4°N, 108.4°W, about 270 mi (435 km) west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and about 325 mi (525 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with gusts to 160 mph (260 km/h), and the minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches). Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 mi (240 km) from the center, and hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 mi (45 km) from the center. Genevieve is moving toward the northwest at around 14 mph (23 km/h), and a general northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Thursday. On the NHC’s forecast track, the center of Genevieve is forecast to move close to the southern Baja California Peninsula late Wednesday and early Thursday. Afterward, Genevieve is forecast to gradually accelerate on Friday, moving parallel to the coast of the Baja California Peninsula. Additional strengthening is forecast through the rest of the day and tonight before a gradual weakening is expected to begin Wednesday night. A more rapid pace of weakening should begin on Friday as Genevieve moves over cooler waters, and the cyclone should weaken to a tropical storm by early Saturday, and then likely degenerate into a remnant low by Sunday.

Forecast Track, Intensity Guidance, and Hazards Affecting Land

Key messages for Hurricane Genevieve from the National Hurricane Center

The dynamical model guidance remains tightly clustered in strong agreement on a continued northwestward track through the next several days, with a slower forward speed initially, and a faster forward speed later in the week as Genevieve is weakening. Genevieve will likely remain offshore as it moves northwestward, parallel to the Baja California Peninsula, with the closest pass expected to occur late Wednesday into early Thursday. The dynamical and statistical guidance does not indicate much additional strengthening, but given the impressive structure of the cyclone, the NHC forecast lies above the guidance, and calls for a peak intensity of 150 mph (240 km/h) within 12 hours. Weakening should begin by late Wednesday, but Genevieve should remain a powerful hurricane through Friday morning, after which time a more rapid weakening should commence.

Although the center of Genevieve is forecast to move to the west of the Baja California Peninsula, tropical storm conditions are still expected to occur across portions of southern Baja California Sur. A Tropical Storm Warning is currently in effect for this area from Los Barilles to Todos Santos, while a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Puerto Cortes to Santa Fe. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours, while a Tropical Storm Watch indicates the possibility of tropical storm conditions within the watch area within 48 hours. Large swells produced by Genevieve are currently affecting portions of the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico to the Baja California Peninsula through Wednesday. These large swells can create dangerous marine conditions for mariners as well as life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along coastal waters. Additionally, Genevieve is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches (25 to 100 mm) across portions of southern Baja California Sur and the southwestern coast of Mexico. This rain may result in life-threatening freshwater and flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in mountainous terrain. Please continue to refer to the National Hurricane Center and your local meteorological office for further information regarding Hurricane Genevieve.

External Links

Please refer to the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service websites for further information regarding Hurricane Genevieve as well as watches and warnings in effect. Daily updates and Force Thirteen’s live satellite feed of Hurricane Genevieve can be found on the Force Thirteen YouTube channel at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TFVWVMvELo. More information can be found at Force Thirteen’s official outlets, including its Twitter and Facebook pages.

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Tropical Storm Fausto forms in the Northeastern Pacific; Expected to be Short-lived https://www.force-13.com/tropical-storm-fausto-forms-in-the-northeastern-pacific-expected-to-be-short-lived https://www.force-13.com/tropical-storm-fausto-forms-in-the-northeastern-pacific-expected-to-be-short-lived#respond Sun, 16 Aug 2020 15:50:07 +0000 http://www.force-13.com/?p=4284 Tropical Depression Eleven-E, which developed early this morning southwest of the Baja California Peninsula, has...

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Tropical Depression Eleven-E, which developed early this morning southwest of the Baja California Peninsula, has strengthened overnight, and is now Tropical Storm Fausto. It is the sixth named storm of the 2020 Northeastern Pacific hurricane season, and the second in the month of August, following Hurricane Elida, which formed last week. It is also one of four tropical cyclones currently active in the western hemisphere, alongside Tropical Depression Ten-E, Tropical Depression Twelve-E, and Atlantic Tropical Storm Josephine. Fausto is forecast to be a short-lived tropical cyclone, and is not expected to impact land during the next few days.

Tropical Storm Fausto: Current Storm Information

The National Hurricane Center’s 5-day forecast track and cone of uncertainty for Tropical Storm Fausto as of Advisory Number 3 at 15:00 UTC August 16.

As of the National Hurricane Center’s most recent advisory on Fausto at 8:00 PM PDT (15:00 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fausto was located near 20.7°N, 119.6°W, about 640 mi (1030 km) west-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with gusts to 50 mph (85 km/h), the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches), and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. Fausto is moving toward the northwest at around 15 mph (24 km/h), and a turn to the west is expected to occur by Monday night. Fausto is already moving over cooler waters, and no further strengthening is forecast. By Tuesday, Fausto is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression, and degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday afternoon. The remnants of Fausto should then continue westward to just south of due westward until dissipating by Thursday. There are no tropical cyclone watches or warnings currently in effect, and Fausto is not expected to threaten land at any point in the next five days.

External Links

For more information regarding current activity in the tropics, visit Force Thirteen’s official outlets at the official Force Thirteen YouTube channelTwitter, and Facebook pages. Tropical Weather Bulletins are posted daily at the Force Thirteen YouTube channel at 00:00 UTC, and Tropical Weather Outlooks can be found at Force Thirteen’s social media outlets.

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New Tropical Depression Forms in the North Atlantic; Expected to Strengthen over the next few Days https://www.force-13.com/new-tropical-depression-forms-in-the-north-atlantic-expected-to-strengthen-over-the-next-few-days https://www.force-13.com/new-tropical-depression-forms-in-the-north-atlantic-expected-to-strengthen-over-the-next-few-days#respond Tue, 11 Aug 2020 22:00:43 +0000 http://www.force-13.com/?p=4214 The tropical wave and associated area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean...

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The tropical wave and associated area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean (designated Invest 95L by the United States Navy), has become better defined today, and now meets the criteria to be classified as the newest tropical cyclone of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. It is the eleventh tropical cyclone of the season and the first in the month of August. Currently located over the open Atlantic, Tropical Depression Eleven is forecast to gradually strengthen over the next few days as it moves westward, likely passing near the northern Leeward Islands later this week. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Thursday morning, and if it does so, it would receive the name Josephine, which is the next name on this year’s predetermined list of tropical cyclone names.

Tropical Depression Eleven: Current Storm Information

As of the National Hurricane Center’s most recent advisory at 5:00 PM AST (21:00 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near 11.7°N, 40.0°W, about 1110 mi (1790 km) west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, and about 1450 mi (2335 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with gusts to 45 mph (75 km/h), and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). The depression is moving toward the west at around 16 mph (26 km/h), and a generally westward motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. By Wednesday night, a west-northwestward motion at about the same forward speed is expected to begin, and continue through the rest of the week. On the NHC’s forecast track, the depression will be passing north of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday. Gradual strengthening is forecast through the next few days as environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further strengthening, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday. Continued strengthening is forecast through Friday, with weakening expected to begin by Saturday as conditions become less favorable.

External Links

For more information regarding current activity in the tropics, visit Force Thirteen’s official outlets at the official Force Thirteen YouTube channelTwitter, and Facebook pages. Tropical Weather Bulletins are posted daily at the Force Thirteen YouTube channel at 00:00 UTC, and Tropical Weather Outlooks can be found at Force Thirteen’s social media outlets.

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Hurricane Elida Continues to Strengthen but Forecast to Begin Weakening Soon https://www.force-13.com/hurricane-elida-continues-to-strengthen-but-forecast-to-begin-weakening-soon https://www.force-13.com/hurricane-elida-continues-to-strengthen-but-forecast-to-begin-weakening-soon#respond Tue, 11 Aug 2020 15:30:02 +0000 http://www.force-13.com/?p=4210 Hurricane Elida has continued to strengthen this morning and is now a Category 2 hurricane...

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Hurricane Elida has continued to strengthen this morning and is now a Category 2 hurricane as it continues northwestward over open waters. Although Elida has been strengthening all through the night, it will soon be moving over much cooler waters and into a very stable and unfavorable atmospheric environment, which should induce rapid weakening on Wednesday. Elida is the second hurricane of the 2020 Pacific hurricane season, coming in at a much later date than normal, with the average second hurricane occurring sometime in June. Elida is currently located over open waters and is not expected to threaten land in the next several days.

Hurricane Elida: Current Storm Information

The National Hurricane Center’s 5-day forecast track and cone of uncertainty for Hurricane Elida as of Advisory Number 11 at 15:00 UTC August 11.

As of the National Hurricane Center’s most recent advisory on Elida at 9:00 AM MDT (15:00 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elida was located near 21.3°N, 113.8°W, about 275 mi (440 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with gusts to 120 mph (195 km/h), the minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). Elida is a rather small hurricane, with Tropical storm-force winds extending outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and Hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center. Elida is moving toward the northwest at around 14 mph (22 km/h), and the hurricane is forecast to slow down as it turns west-northwestward during the next several days. Elida has likely reached its peak intensity, and it is forecast to begin weakening later today. Rapid weakening to tropical storm status is expected by Wednesday, and the cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Thursday. There are no tropical cyclone watches or warnings currently in effect, and Elida is not expected to threaten land at any point in the next five days.

External Links

For more information regarding current activity in the tropics, visit Force Thirteen’s official outlets at the official Force Thirteen YouTube channelTwitter, and Facebook pages. Tropical Weather Bulletins are posted daily at the Force Thirteen YouTube channel at 00:00 UTC, and Tropical Weather Outlooks can be found at Force Thirteen’s social media outlets.

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