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Cyclone Tauktae continuing its intensification phase as it scrapes the coast of India

Force Thirteen — Sun, 16 May 2021 13:41:32 +0000

Cyclone Tauktae is continuing to intensify as it scrapes along the coast of India. Tauktae is currently 260km (161mi) away from Mumbai. As of 12:00 UTC; F13 now has Tauktae as a 200kph (125mph) system (1-min winds) making it a Category 3 hurricane equivalent cyclone with an estimated pressure of 951Mb, while the India Meteorological Department (IMD) officially has it as a 130kph (80mph) system (1-min winds) with an estimated pressure of 972Mb. Force Thirteen is currently predicting a high-end Category 4 hurricane equivalent cyclone with winds of 240kph (150mph) (1-min winds), while the IMD is predicting a 145kph (90mph) peak.

Force Thirteen’s Forecast Cone

IMD Forecast Cone

Over the past few hours, Tauktae has brought heavy winds and rains to the western coastal parts of India and the situation is expected to worsen from there. Six deaths are already reported as of May 16, 2021, 2 confirmed in Kerala and another 6 confirmed in Karnataka. The cyclone has already brought heavy rainfall to Karnataka causing light to moderate damages over there. Cyclone Tauktae is expected to make landfall in Gujarat as a very strong category 4 hurricane equivalent cyclone. The IMD is currently forecasting a 3.6-meter storm surge in Una, Gujarat, the highest forecasted surge. In Gujarat, Chief Minister Vijay Rupani ensures that his state is taking the needed precautions to prepare for the cyclone which is expected to make landfall on Monday, May 17, 2021.

Warnings and Watches:

Cyclone Warning Cyclonic storm conditions expected within 24 hours.	India adjoining coast of Gujarat Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu adjoining coast of Diu district

Source: https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/cyclone.php#.

Here is our latest rainfall forecast for Cyclone Tauktae, take a look.

Here is our latest Key Messages Graphic:

The Latest IMD Storm Surge Forecast Map:

If you’re in the forecast cone, please be prepared for this storm. Stay updated with your local officials, and evacuate if needed. Stay tuned for more updates on this storm. This could be the most significant landfall in Gujarat since the 1998 Gujarat Cyclone.

Watch our Live Stream on Cyclone Tauktae!

Notice: F13 has given a special fix for Tauktae at 13:30 UTC – 16.8°N 72.4°E 110kt 946Mb (C3) – moving NNW at 13mph

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Tropical Storm Eloise A Massive Threat to Mozambique

Force Thirteen — Thu, 21 Jan 2021 07:41:06 +0000

Tropical Storm Eloise is located 457 km northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar, and has tracked west-southwestward at 31 km/h (17 knots) over the past 6 hours. Infrared satellite imagery shows persistent, deep convection wrapping into an obscured low level circulation center that has reemerged over water. These favorable conditions are expected to continue in 2 days and result in a peak intensity of 165 km/h by this time. The system will continue to track along the steering subtropical ridge and make landfall near Beira, Mozambique in the next 2 to 3 days, with further intensification likely to occur prior to landfall.

Latest Model Run of TS Eloise

Thereafter, the system will begin to dissipate over land due to increasing wind shear and interaction with the underlying terrain and complete dissipation over land in 4 days. Forecast models are in tight agreement with 173 nautical miles spread in across track solutions at landfall.

CURRENT INFORMATION AND FORECAST:

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Tropical Storm Eloise Threatening Madagascar, High Chance of Strong Winds and Heavy Rain

Force Thirteen — Mon, 18 Jan 2021 00:36:43 +0000

Tropical Storm Eloise is located 806 km north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius, and has tracked westward at 30 km/h over the past 6 hours. Infrared satellite imagery shows a symmetric mass of persistent convection which is sheared to the east of the obscured low level circulation center (LLCC).The system is currently tracking along the northern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge centered to the south and this motion is expected to continue through the duration of the forecast period. The system is expected to make landfall just after 2 days along the northeastern coast of Madagascar. Some slight modifications in the track can be expected as the system crosses Madagascar but the overall steering pattern is forecast to remain steady for the duration of the forecast. Sea surface temperatures in the region are warm (28-29°C) but the combination of limited diffluent outflow and moderate wind shear will result in slow intensification over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Latest Model Run of TS Eloise

Forecast models are in good agreement with 80 nautical miles spread in 2 days.Maximum significant wave height at 17/18:00 UTC is 15 feet (4.6 meters).

CURRENT INFORMATION:
CURRENT WIND SPEED: 50mph/80kmh
MINIMUM PRESSURE: 995mbar

Latest Cone from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Information from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

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Cyclone Yasa Weakens Slightly To A Category 4, Still A Dangerous Storm

Force Thirteen — Thu, 17 Dec 2020 01:14:36 +0000

Cyclone Yasa is located 241km north-northwest of Suva, Fiji, and has tracked east-southeastward at 20 km/h over the past 6 hours.Environmental analysis reveals an overall favorable environment characterized by warm (28-29°C) sea surface temperatures, low (5-10 knots) vertical wind shear, good equatorward outflow, and enhanced poleward outflow aloft.The system is tracking generally southeastward along the northwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge positioned to the southeast. In the near term, the system is expected to track generally southeastward with the model solutions in fair agreement.Throughout this transit, the system should gradually weaken due to moderate wind shear and land interaction, decreasing intensity to 215 km/h (130 mph) in 24 hoursAt this time, the system will begin to turn southwestward along the northern periphery of the steering subtropical ridge and the system should maintain this general track for the remainder of the forecast period.Cool (<26°C) sea surface temperatures and high (>45kmh) wind shear will continue to weaken the system in the extended forecast, leading Yasa to weaken to 75 km/h (45mph) in 5 days.

CURRENT INFORMATION AND FORECAST:
Winds:250kmh
Pressure:919mbar

https://twitter.com/ForceThirteen/status/1339327365143523328

Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center

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Cyclone Yasa A Cyclone Threat to Fiji

Force Thirteen — Tue, 15 Dec 2020 04:08:40 +0000

As of 3:00AM UTC, cyclone Yasa is currently a Category 2 in Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Cyclone Yasa is located approximately 725km west-northwest of Suva, Fiji, and has tracked northeastward at 7 kmh (4mph) over the past 6 hours.Satellite imagery reveals a 20 nautical miles ragged eye that has developed over the past 6 hours with spiral bands wrapping into the low level circulation center.Yasa is forecast to track generally northeastward over the next 12 hours before turning to track due east over the next 24 hours, tracking to the east-southeast after this.Yasa will continue to intensify due to favorable environmental conditions reaching a peak intensity of 215 kmh (130mph) over the next 2 days. The current track has Yasa passing between viti levu and vanua levu, Fiji between 48 and 72hours.Interaction with the terrain as it passes between the islands and moderate (30-40kmh) wind shear thereafter will weaken the system to 120 kmh (75mph) in 5 days.Forecast models are in poor agreement due to the complex steering environment. There is a 275 nautical miles across track spread in model solutions over the next 3 days, which increases to 470 nautical miles in 5 days.

CURRENT INFORMATION & FORECAST:

https://twitter.com/ForceThirteen/status/1338676366200500224

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Tropical Storm 03S Nearing Landfall in Australia

Force Thirteen — Fri, 11 Dec 2020 02:36:43 +0000

As of 2:00AM UTC tropical storm 03S, located approximately 90kilometers northeast of Karratha, Australia, the system has tracked southeastward at 45 km/h over the past 6 hours.Environmental analysis reveals the system lies in a marginal environment with warm (30°C) sea surface temperatures, low (10-15 knots) wind shear and robust poleward outflow into the base of a mid-latitude trough just to the west.Additional intensification to 50 mph (85 km/h) is still possible prior to landfall, as the upper-level outflow continues to provide robust exhaust, and prior to wind shear decapitating the system over land.However, once over land, the system will rapidly weaken due to terrain interaction and increasing wind shear, leading to dissipation of the system by 24 hours.The maximum significant wave height currently is 16 feet (4.9 meters).

CURRENT INFORMATION:
45mph (70kmh)
999mbar
Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

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Tropical Cyclone 03S A Tropical Storm

Force Thirteen — Wed, 09 Dec 2020 13:20:25 +0000

In the last 24 hours 02U or 03S has intensified to a Tropical Storm.
Its currently located approximately 686 nautical miles north-northwest of Learmonth, Australia, has tracked east-southeastward at 11 mph (20 km/h) over the past 6 hours.Infrared satellite imagery shows deep convection sheared to the southwest of a fully exposed low level circulation center (LLCC). The initial position is placed with high confidence based on the fully exposed LLCC.The system will continue to track generally southeastward throughout the remainder of the forecast period.Upon making landfall, the system will begin to rapidly weaken due to interaction with the underlying terrain. This terrain interaction will lead to subsequent dissipation over land in 3 days.Environmental conditions are forecast to be neutral during this time with favorable sea surface temperatures offset by continued moderate to high wind shear.

CURRENT INFORMATION:
Winds of 50mph or 80 kmh
Pressure of 992mbar
Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center

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Tropical Depression BOB 05 Might Intensify to A Tropical Storm

Force Thirteen — Tue, 01 Dec 2020 01:52:33 +0000

Tropical Depression BOB 05 is currently located near 6.3N 87.6E, approximately 462 nautical miles east of Colombo, Sri Lanka.Global models are in good agreement that TD BOB 05 will track generally westward with slight intensification with a 40mph threshold before moving across Sri Lanka and the Indian peninsula.The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains very high.

CURRENT INFORMATION:

Maximum Winds:35mph

Minimum Estimated Pressure:1006mbar

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The 2020 Pacific Typhoon Season Is Still Not Over

Force Thirteen — Mon, 23 Nov 2020 07:31:02 +0000

As of November 23, 2020 the 2020 Typhoon Season had 29 tropical depressions, 22 tropical storms, 10 typhoons, and 2 super typhoons. It may look like that’s a lot of tropical cyclones but the season is currently below average in terms of named storms and activity. The season is currently quiet as the last system died on November 15,2020 but this doesn’t mean that the season is over, systems can still form this late November or December.Let’s take an example like Super Typhoon Nock-Ten (Nina) which was a late Category 5 Typhoon that formed on December 20,2016, other examples of a late season typhoons were Typhoon Kammuri (Tisoy) in November of 2019 and Typhoon Phanfone (Ursula) in December of 2019. The Pacific Ocean is always full of surprises!

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Tropical Depression 97B Slowly Intensifiying In The Bay of Bengal

Force Thirteen — Mon, 23 Nov 2020 02:54:06 +0000

Tropical Depression 97B is located near 8.2N 85.4E, approximately 335 miles southeast of Chennai, India.Tropical Depression 97B is currently in a favorable environment for development with good poleward and equatorward outflow, low vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures reaching up to 30 degrees celcius or 85 degrees fahrenhait.Infrared satellite imagery shows an asymmetric convective structure, with the majority of deep convection located to the north of the low level circulation center (LLCC) as formative banding.

GFS Model Run on Tropical Depression 97B

A 22/15:21 UTC ASCAT pass shows a roughly north-south oriented elongated LLCC with mostly 15 to 20 knot winds covering the northern hemisphere, with a small swath of 20 to 25 knot winds embedded within.

Global models are in general agreement that Tropical Depression 97B will continue to consolidate and intensify as it tracks northwestward toward India, reaching warning threshold over the next couple days; however, GFS presents a much faster intensification scenario.

Tropical Depression 97B’s Current Information:

Image from:Jacob Knox

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