RECON was unable to reach Eta until the past hour, where an SFMR reported winds of 135 knots (155 mph), and that Eta continues to deepen in pressure.

The Forecast

As of 10:00 pm CST on November 2, Major Hurricane Eta was located near 14.1°N 82.7°W, with maximum wind speeds of 155 mph and a minimum pressure of 927 millibars, moving WSW at 7 mph.

• A Hurricane Warning is currently in effect for the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Sandy Bay Sirpi.
• A Hurricane Watch is currently in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Nicaragua/Honduras border. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the same area.
• A Tropical Storm Watch is currently in effect for the northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward to Punta Castilla.

Eta is expected to continue moving southwestward, and to continue intensifying until landfall tomorrow afternoon. Eta will move very slowly across Central America, delivering life-threatening flooding and rainfall in addition to sustained winds either approaching or beyond the Category 5 threshold of 157 mph. Much of Nicaragua and Honduras are forecast to receive 15-25 inches (380 to 635 mm), with isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm) possible. Areas as far as southeast Mexico could also see up to 15 inches. Storm surge is forecast to reach levels 14 to 21 feet above normal tide along the Nicaragua coast, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide along the Honduras coast.

As catastrophic as the situation may be, there is hope that Eta’s intensity will plateau, as the National Hurricane Center notes that radar data suggests concentric eyewalls may be forming, which will lead to an eyewall replacement cycle, capping Eta’s intensity. Wind shear is also expected to slightly increase to 10-15 knots before landfall, which would assist in preventing Eta from strengthening further.

Eta’s long-range forecast remains uncertain, with models showing that either Eta or the remnants of Eta will move northeastward back over the Caribbean Sea this weekend, and potentially redevelop in the Caribbean Sea.

As tropical storm force winds and life-threatening rainfall have already begun moving onshore, the time to prepare and evacuate has passed, especially for areas along the coast. Citizens remaining in eastern Honduras/Nicaragua should follow the instructions provided by local officials, and go to a hurricane shelter if possible and safe to do so.

The post Major Hurricane Eta nearing Category 5 Status appeared first on Force Thirteen.

The Office of Civil Defense in Bicol has confirmed the deaths of ten civilians, all of which were in the Albay region. Conditions from Goni triggered lahar flows and mudslides that buried at least 180 houses in Guinobatan and destroyed the Basud Bridge, as well as burying vehicles, livestock, and potentially civilians. Several villages were inundated from flooding and over ten feet of storm surge. Search and rescue teams have been unable to respond to areas on Catanduanes Island, and the Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines reported a loss of contact with Virac Airport, the only airport located on the island.  Over 390,000 citizens have been displaced by Goni across the Bicol region.

Metro Manila, which was forecast to receive Category 2-3 hurricane-equivalent conditions, only received tropical storm conditions as Goni passed just south of the capital city. Flooding in nearby Batangas City was reported to have reached the roofs of houses.

As of 3:00 UTC (11:00 PHT) on November 2, Tropical Storm Goni is located at 14.5°N, 118.0°E with maximum sustained wind speeds of 40mph, with a minimum barometric pressure of 1004 millibars, moving west at 13 mph. Goni is expected to maintain its intensity while continuing to move westwards towards central Vietnam, affecting the country on Wednesday and Thursday while dissipating to a remnant low.

Following behind Goni, Tropical Depression Atsani (known as Siony in the Philippines) is expected to stall northeast of the Philippines, and could possibly impact northern Luzon as a typhoon later this week.

The post Goni makes a historically strong landfall in the Philippines appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Tropical Storm PAULETTE

As of 20:00 AST, Tropical Storm Paulette was located near 28.7°N, 59.2°W, or about 415 miles southeast of Bermuda with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph and a minimum pressure of 981 millibars. It was moving WNW at approximately 15 mph. A hurricane warning is in place for Bermuda.

Paulette is expected to continue moving towards the northwest, intensifying into a hurricane tonight as southerly wind shear drops significantly over the next several hours. Conditions are expected to deteriorate in Bermuda on Sunday night, and Paulette is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to pass near or directly over Bermuda on Monday before being pushed towards the northeast by a trough moving across the eastern United States. Paulette is forecast to continue intensify as it moves away from Bermuda for another day or so before beginning to weaken. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 110 mph peak for Paulette- just below major hurricane intensity.

Bermuda is near-certain to experience winds of at least tropical storm-force winds, and the National Hurricane Center’s latest Wind Speed Probabilities give a 62% chance for Paulette to deliver sustained hurricane-force winds to Bermuda. Paulette is expected to deliver 3-6 inches of rain to the island. Preparations ahead of Paulette should be rushed to completion by tomorrow afternoon.

Tropical Storm SALLY

As of 20:00 EDT, Tropical Storm Sally was located near 26.0°N, 82.5°W, or about 45 miles west of Naples, FL with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and a minimum pressure of 1003 millibars, moving WNW at approximately 8 mph. A hurricane watch is in place from Grand Isle, LA to the Alabama/Florida border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans. A tropical storm watch is in place from the Alabama/Florida border extending eastwards to the Ochlockonee River.

In addition to these watches, New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell has ordered mandatory evacuations for residents outside of the city’s levee system starting at 6:00 pm local time on Sunday. If you are under a mandatory evacuation order, it is STRONGLY ADVISED you heed it, and extremely dangerous to your health and safety if you proceed to ignore the order.

Sally is forecast to slowly move towards the northwest over the next couple of days as it rounds a weakening high pressure area before being picked up by a north-south ridge on Tuesday, which would likely cause Sally to crawl northwards as it makes landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast that afternoon as a Category 1 hurricane, before then accelerating towards the northeast over the southeastern United States. Most models show Sally making landfall in southeastern Louisiana or Mississippi, however the landfall location may be as far east as the western portion of the Florida panhandle.

The National Hurricane’s Center Experimental Storm Surge graphic shows that portions of southeast Louisiana could potentially see 6-9 feet of storm surge, 4-6 feet for the Mississippi coastline, 2-4 feet for the Alabama coastline, and 1-3 feet throughout the Florida panhandle down to the Big Bend region of Florida- to the mouth of the Chassahowitzka river. The rainfall forecast has significantly increased over the past day or so, with several areas across the hurricane and tropical storm watches forecast to receive at least 10 inches of rain, and several isolated areas in extreme southeastern Louisiana are forecast to receive 15-20 inches of rain from Sally. Large areas of 6 inches of rain from Sally are forecast as far north as Interstate 20 in southeastern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic (Tropical Depressions RENE and TWENTY)

Further out in the Atlantic Ocean are the struggling Tropical Depression Rene, and the newly formed Tropical Depression Twenty. Both systems have maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Rene is expected to dissipate in the next few days, and it’s remaining energy will drift southwestwards towards Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. On the other hand, Tropical Depression Twenty is expected to intensify into a significant hurricane in the Main Development Region, and is forecast to curve northwestwards away from the Greater and Lesser Antilles as it intensifies into a hurricane on Tuesday. The next name on the naming list for this year is Teddy.

The post Paulette and Sally Likely to Threaten Land as Hurricanes Early Next Week appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Hurricane Laura continues to rapidly strengthen, and as of 10:00 am CDT Hurricane Laura intensified further to a Category 3 major hurricane with sustained winds of 125 mph, and a minimum pressure of 956 millibars. Laura is currently moving towards the northwest at about 16 mph, and is expected to continue slowly recurving to the northeast throughout the next several days.

Timing and Impacts

Several mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for areas along the Texas/Louisiana border, including portions of Chambers, Jefferson, and Orange counties including the cities of Galveston and Port Arthur (Texas), as well as all of Cameron Parish, and portions of Jefferson, Lafourche, and Plaquemines parishes (Louisiana). Please follow instructions of local officials regarding evacuation orders.

The exact landfall location of Laura is not known, but the forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center shows Hurricane Laura making landfall anywhere between High Island, TX and just east of Grand Chenier, LA very early tomorrow morning. The National Hurricane Center now forecasts Laura to reach Category 4 intensity with sustained winds of 145 mph at landfall, delivering over 15″ of rain in some isolated areas. Storm surge is predicted to reach catastrophic levels of 15-20 feet for areas between Johnson Bayou and Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge (Louisiana), and between 10-15 feet for areas extending westward to Sea Rim State Park, TX, and extending eastward to Intracoastal City, LA. A storm surge warning is currently in effect for all areas from Freeport, TX to the mouth of the Mississippi river, and a storm surge watch extends from the mouth of the Mississippi river to Ocean Springs, MS. A hurricane warning is in effect from San Luis Pass, TX to Intracoastal City, LA, and a hurricane watch extends from Intracoastal City, LA to just west of Morgan City, LA. The Storm Prediction Center also notes a 5% probability area for tornadoes across southern Louisiana in relation to Hurricane Laura.

Laura is expected to begin rapidly weakening after landfall, and is forecast to be down to a tropical storm as it’s center crosses the Louisiana/Arkansas border Thursday evening. Laura will continue recurving as it moves through Arkansas, Missouri, and the Ohio Valley as a tropical depression on Friday and Saturday before emerging off the Atlantic coast on Sunday. Laura is likely to be part of a frontal system by this point, although the National Hurricane Center has noted that there is a possibility for Laura to regenerate as a tropical storm in the Atlantic Ocean moving away from the United States.

Hurricane Shelter Information

COVID-19 will still be present as Hurricane Laura passes. Due to the pandemic, many evacuees are being evacuated to hotels in Central Texas and New Orleans, LA rather than schools that are usually designated as hurricane shelters. Many of these hotels are providing COVID-19 screening questions upon entry, and some are providing COVID-19 testing. Please check local area information and with local officials for more information on hurricane shelters.

The post Laura expected to strengthen to a Category 4 hurricane before making landfall appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Marco enters the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Watch issued for the United States

As of 7:00pm CDT, Tropical Storm Marco was located near 22.3°N, 86.0°W, moving NNW at 13 mph with maximum wind speeds of 65 mph and a minimum pressure of 994 millibars (29.4 inHg). For Cuba, a tropical storm warning is in place for the Pinar Del Rio province. For the United States, a hurricane watch is in place from Intracoastal City, LA to the Mississippi/Alabama border, a tropical storm watch is in place for the Alabama coastline, and a storm surge watch is in place for the coastlines of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

Tropical Storm Marco has moved well eastward of it’s initial forecasts, missing making it’s originally forecasted landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula, and instead delivering Tropical Storm conditions to extreme western Cuba. Marco is now predicted to reach hurricane intensity later tonight or early tomorrow morning, and peak with winds of 85 mph tomorrow. Most models show Marco making landfall over or near southeastern Louisiana on Monday afternoon, although there are a few models still showing Marco making landfall in Texas, and some show that Marco may make landfall as far east as Alabama. After landfall, a westward building ridge will push Marco towards the northwest across Louisiana and into Texas as a Tropical Depression heading into Tuesday and Wednesday.

Laura delivers Tropical Storm force conditions across the northern Caribbean Sea

As of 8:00pm AST, Tropical Storm Laura was located near 18.1°N, 68.7°W, moving W at 18 mph with maximum wind speeds of 50 mph and a minimum pressure of 1004 millibars (29.6 inHg). Tropical Storm warnings are in place for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, much of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and eastern Cuba. A tropical storm watch is in place for the central Bahamas, Andros Island, the Florida Keys, the Florida Bay, and the remainder of Cuba.

Tropical Storm Laura has moved further south than the original National Hurricane Center forecast as predicted by the European and GFS models, which has been bad news across the northeastern Caribbean Islands. Tropical Storm force winds were experienced as far south as Martinique. The Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands are currently experiencing the worst of the storm, and nearly a foot of rain has fallen in some areas of Puerto Rico. Laura will make landfall in the Dominican Republic in the next few hours.

Laura isn’t expected to intensify much until Tuesday due to land interaction with Hispaniola and eventually Cuba on Sunday and Monday. Once Laura reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, Laura is forecast to strengthen to a Category 1 hurricane due to a lack of wind shear and very warm sea surface temperatures before making landfall in southeastern Louisiana on Wednesday. However, Laura’s intensity forecast is still uncertain, as some models indicate Laura could strengthen further.

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For more information on Laura and Marco, please visit the National Hurricane Center.

Force Thirteen will also continue to produce updates on Laura and Marco here on force-13.com, as well as on our YouTube, Twitter, and Facebook pages.

The post Potential double-threat for Louisiana from Laura and Marco next week appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Tropical Depression THIRTEEN

Tropical Depression Thirteen was designated in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic Ocean last night at the 11:00 pm AST advisory. As of 11:00 am AST, Tropical Depression Thirteen has wind speeds of 35 mph and is currently located at around 16.0°N, 52.0°W, moving WNW at about 21 mph.

Thirteen is expected to continue moving is a west-northwesterly direction through the next 5 days, however what’s more uncertain is Thirteen’s intensity forecast, which greatly depends on how far north or south Thirteen moves. Generally, if Thirteen moves north and further away from the northern Caribbean Islands, it will become a stronger system, as shown by the HWRF and HMON models. If Thirteen moves more south and towards the northern Caribbean Islands, Thirteen will remain weaker, as shown by the European and GFS models.

Other than potential land interaction, the only factor that may inhibit the development of Thirteen is dry air. Wind shear is likely to remain low and Sea Surface Temperatures are to continue being warm. The National Hurricane Center shows Thirteen gradually intensifying into a hurricane by Day 4, and maintaining minimal hurricane intensity through Day 5, due to uncertainty about how Thirteen will interact with the Greater Antilles.

Tropical Depression FOURTEEN

Tropical Depression Fourteen was designated at 11:00am EDT today. As of 2:00 pm EDT, Tropical Depression Fourteen has wind speeds of 35mph and is currently located at around 15.4°N, 80.0°W, moving W at about 18 mph. A Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is being sent to investigate Fourteen later today.

Fourteen is expected to continue to move west due to the Bermuda High for the next day or so before a trough over the Gulf of Mexico becomes the primary steering current for Fourteen, causing it to slow down while turning towards the northwest and, grazing the Honduran coastline before then beginning to accelerate towards the northwest, tracking over the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend and entering the Gulf of Mexico on Days 4 and 5.

Fourteen is forecast to strengthen little in the next day or so, but to begin strengthening as it begins to turn towards the northwest tomorrow. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center is on the higher end of the models, predicting that low wind shear and Sea Surface Temperatures of 29-30°C will allow Fourteen to strengthen more than major models are showing. The National Hurricane Center has Fourteen as a 70 mph Tropical Storm when it makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday evening.

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Regardless of intensity, Tropical Depressions Thirteen and Fourteen are both expected to impact land to some degree. Nearly all of the Western Atlantic should monitor the progress of either one or both of these systems closely over the next few days. The next two names on the Atlantic Naming List this year are Laura and Marco respectively, with the depression that intensifies into a Tropical Storm first receiving the name Laura.

Force Thirteen will continue to monitor the progress of Thirteen and Fourteen here on force-13.com. You can also find us on our YouTube, Twitter, and Facebook.

The post Two new depressions form in the Atlantic basin appeared first on Force Thirteen.

In terms of intensity, several models agree that 91B could become a strong system. On the most recent model run (yesterday at 18z), the GFS has 91B with winds up to 110 mph (175 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 935 millibars, which would be an Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (on the IMD scale), or a high-end Category 2 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson scale) in 102 hours. The HWRF model goes even further, putting 91B at 150 mph and minimum pressure of 900 millibars at 102 hours on their 18z run.

Some models are less aggressive with 91B, and the CMC is the least intense major model with a minimum pressure of 961 millibars. However, other major models including the European model are as aggressive as the GFS, taking 91B below 950 millibars. The NAVGEM model also shows 91B’s minimum pressure drop to 936 millibars.

The models are in more disagreement over where 91B is suspected to make landfall. Over the next couple of days, it is expected that 91B will move generally north to northeast. The GFS, NAVGEM, and most models take 91B into the central Bangladesh coastline. However, the European model and the CMC model take 91B into India (albeit, the CMC model’s projected landfall is very close to the Bangladesh border), and the HWRF model takes 91B much closer to Bangladesh’s border with Myanmar. Several other models also take 91B closer and into Myanmar.

All who have interests in the Bay of Bengal (especially those in Bangladesh) should keep a close eye on this system. Force Thirteen has already rated 91B as a Stage 7 out of 10 on the CDPS (Cyclone Potential Destruction Scale), predicting “Catastrophic” damage wherever 91B happens to make landfall, due to the model runs. The next name on the naming list for North Indian Ocean cyclones is Amphan, which is the final name on the original eight lists drafted in 2004 by eight countries for the basin. After Amphan, the North Indian Ocean will move to a new set of thirteen lists for naming tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean.

Force Thirteen will continue to release more articles on the progression of 91B here on force-13.com, as well as video updates on our YouTube channel, which can be found by clicking here.

The post Tropical Depression 91B forms in the Bay of Bengal, could become an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Vongfong Track and Intensity Forecast

As of 15:00 UTC on May 13, Typhoon Vongfong was located near 12.2°N, 127.9°E, or about 490 miles (790 kilometres) southeast of Manila. Vongfong currently has sustained winds of 110 mph (175 km/h), and a minimum pressure of 963 millibars. Vongfong is currently moving 290°, or WNW at about 7 mph.

Vongfong is going to continue approaching the Philippines, most likely making a landfall in the province of Catanduanes late Thursday evening or early Friday morning (local time), potentially as a low-end Category 4 equivalent typhoon. Vongfong is then expected to begin turning to the North, and eventually the Northeast, most likely making a Category 2 or 3 strength landfall on the east coast of Luzon on Friday night while doing so. After exiting the north coast of Luzon on Saturday evening, Vongfong is expected to continue moving towards the northeast, passing just east of the Ryukyu Islands of Japan as a tropical storm on Monday. However, the forecast cone from the JTWC extends as far west as Taiwan.

Potential Impacts

Residents in these aforementioned areas (as well as surrounding areas) of the Philippines should already have begun preparing for typhoon conditions, which include strong winds, flooding, storm surge, and mudslides. A Signal 2 Warning has been issued by PAGASA for Northern Samar, meaning tropical storm force winds are expected within the next 24 hours. A Signal 1 Warning is in effect for the Camarines, Albay, Sorsogon, Catanduanes, and Masbate regions of Luzon, as well as the rest of Samar, and Biliran in the Visayas, meaning that winds between 30-60 km/h (20-37 mph) are expected. Anyone with interests in all aforementioned areas should continue to monitor the progression of Vongfong closely.

More information and updates on the progression of Vongfong will be posted on the Force Thirteen website as well as our YouTube channel, which can be found by clicking here.

The post Vongfong rapidly intensifies to a Category 2 equivalent typhoon appeared first on Force Thirteen.

So now we ask, what’s next for Kammuri?

The Forecast

There is high confidence in Kammuri’s track through the rest of the week. The JTWC, JMA, and many forecast models, including the European model and the GFS are in agreement that Kammuri will slowly curve to the North before taking a sharp left turn back towards Asia. The intensity forecast is also in quite the agreement, with the JTWC showing an intensity of 115 knots (130 mph) in five days, and the JMA predicting a pressure of 925 millibars by the end of it’s forecast. The European model and the GFS model have Kammuri peaking with pressures of 932 and 940 millibars respectively.

Philippines to be on high alert

In fact, there is still a high level of confidence in the forecast for Kammuri’s track and intensity even further than seven days ahead. While the JTWC and JMA forecasts don’t go beyond the five and seven day marks (as forecasts beyond these ranges are considered “unreliable”), the ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET models all generally trend towards the Philippines, including the runs from these models on Tropical Tidbits.

Force Thirteen will continue releasing articles on Kammuri, and most likely, video updates on our channel here.

The post Tropical Storm Kammuri passes south of Guam, what’s next? appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Winter Storm Dorothy

The Weather Channel has given the winter storm currently over Boulder, Colorado the name Dorothy, the fourth of the 2019-20 Winter Season. Dorothy is expected to track Northeastward across the Rocky Mountains and through the Upper Midwest. Through Wednesday, several towns and cities throughout the Rocky Mountains and Upper Midwest are expecting to see snowfall from Dorothy. Heading into Thanksgiving Day, snowfall from Dorothy could extend back over the United States over New York and Northern New England.

Large portions of the aforementioned areas are expecting to see at least 5-8 inches of snow from Dorothy, however certain areas could receive up to a foot and a half. Dorothy will also deliver rain to many places across the Great Plains, Lower Midwest, Southern New England, Mid-Atlantic states, and the South.

The West Coast

While Dorothy is beyond the West Coast, another system may be moving in on Wednesday. This system is expected to bring more snow to the Pacific Northwest and rain in Southern California on Wednesday before taking a similar track to Dorothy, bringing precipitation to most places West of the Mississippi on Thursday and Friday. This second storm will not reach the East Coast until the weekend, meaning that those in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast can expect clear weather for Thanksgiving Day.

EDIT (02:31 UTC, November 26): The second system is predicted to be a record-breaking system in several categories of severe weather. Here is a link to Monday night’s LIVE Coverage about this weeks winter weather (run by Force Thirteen’s United States Branch): US Braces for Thanksgiving Winter Storms

The post Two Winter Storms could impact the United States this week appeared first on Force Thirteen.