In the South Pacific, another tropical disturbance is starting to take shape as it heads towards the Solomon Islands. The system is likely to quickly develop into a tropical cyclone, and strengthen further before pulling away into the Coral Sea. It is possible that this potential storm could reach hurricane strength whilst still over some of the islands. At the moment, models are supportive of further and potentially rapid strengthening in the Coral Sea, towards Category 3 status next week. The late part of the forecast remains very uncertain, but at the moment storm impacts cannot be ruled out anywhere from Mackay to Sydney, and for New Caledonia.

Watch our full Tropical Weather Bulletin using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5VgfYEjA8I

The post Developing Cyclone Headed for Eastern India – December 2, 2023 appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Current Information 

According to the Indian Meteorological Department’s (IMD) 11:30 AM IST (6:00 AM UTC) Update, Extremely Severe Cyclone “Biparjoy” is located at 18.2°N, 67.7°E. The storm continues to move northward and located at a distance of 460 km from Porbandar, Gujarat of India. 

Extremely Severe Cyclone Biparjoy has 3 minutes sustained winds equivalent to 105 mph (90 Kts/165 Kph) gusting up to 125 mph (110 Kts/210 Kph) and a minimal center pressure of 966 millibars. The system is currently moving Northward with a speed of 5 mph (4 Kts/8 Kph) 

At 12PM UTC, the Force Thirteen Cyclone Analyst team analyzed the system a bit higher with 1 minute sustained winds equivalent to 115 mph (100 Kts/185 Kph) and a minimal central pressure of 949 mb based on the satellite appearance, putting the storm as a weak Category 3 cyclone.

 In Depth Look 

Currently Extremely Severe Cyclone Biparjoy is present in the north Central Arabian Sea. Cyclone Biparjoy is currently located in a marginal favorable region for intensification with high vertical wind shear off set by warm Sea Surface temperature of 30-31°C.

Analysis of model soundings shows Biparjoy will continue to remain in moderate easterly shear. Microwave imagery depicts reformation of an eyewall structure in Biparjoy which suggests the storm is on the mend from an eyewall replacement cycle.

Biparjoy is expected to maintain its peak for some more hours and could further intensify marginally. After that it will encounter unfavorable conditions. A sea of dry air, moderate to high shear, relatively colder SST, decreased outflow will weaken the system steadily. From Wednesday, Biparjoy will turn Northeastward as it will round the sub-tropical ridge to the east and is projected to make landfall as a Very Severe Cyclone near Jakhau port of Gujarat, India on at mid day of June 15th. 

Cyclone Effects

Wind & Rain – Wind & Rain – As Cyclone Biparjoy is expected to make landfall in Kutch, near the Indus Delta, by June 15th, Gale force winds are expected to batter the Gujarat and Sindh coasts from June 12th through to June 17th, with hurricane-force winds over parts of the Kutch peninsula on June 15th. Those winds will be further accompanied by heavy to extremely heavy rains at isolated places (more than 200 mm). Very heavy rain rates can cause major flash flooding in those areas. Rainfall total can even peak 750 mm in the Southern side of the cyclone where the major bulk of the convection is. 

Wind & Rain Warning by Indian Meteorological Department

Storm Surge –  Due to the topographical feature of the delta region, filled with narrow creek storm surge of 3-4 meter has been forecasted in the deltaic & low lying part of Indus river and Kutch region during landfall.

Fisherman and Port Warnings:

In the wake of the Cyclone landfall, the respected meteorological agencies has advised total suspension of fishing, tourism and other on and offshore activities over Gujarat and Pakistan Coast. Citizens are advised to remain indoors in the coastal areas.

Preparedness 

Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has urged the people of Karachi to exercise extreme caution as Extremely Severe Cyclone Biparjoy has inched closer to Karachi. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has ordered officials to put in place emergency measures in advance for Cyclone Biparjoy in the Arabian Sea that is likely to cause flooding and rainstorms in low-lying areas of Karachi and Sindh province. The Gujarat government shutdown popular sea beaches like Chowpaty in Porbandar, Shivrajpur near Dwarka in Devbhumi Dwarka, and Mandvi in the Kutch district.

While the Chief Minister of Gujarat reviews the preparedness of coastal districts of the state against possible cyclones. He has announced to postpone the school enrollment drive Shala Praveshotsav in six coastal districts of Dwarika, Porbandar, Kutch, Morbi, Jamnagar and Junagadh for the time being. In other districts of the state, this school enrolment drive will now be held on two days i.e. June 12 and 13 instead of three.

Records

Extremely Severe Cyclone Biparjoy has become the 2nd Major Cyclone in the 2023 Pre-Monsoon Cyclone Season, a feat only accomplished in the 2019 and 1963 pre monsoon Cyclone Season. In addition, Biparjoy is also the 2nd Extremely Severe Cyclone of the 2023 Pre monsoon cyclone season tied with 1963 and 1982. The current forecast from JTWC suggests that Biparjoy can break both the single TC ACE record of NIO(2019 Kyarr, 24.715), and the NIO spring season ACE record set by Fani and Vayu in 2019.

The post Cyclone Biparjoy to Threaten Western Coast of India This Week appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Current Information –

According to the Indian Meteorological Department’s (IMD) 11:30 AM IST (6AM UTC) update, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “Biparjoy” is located at 14.1°N, 66°E. The storm continues to move at a very safe distance from the Indian Coast and is approximately 800 km from Honnavar, Karnataka state of India.  Very Severe Cyclone Biparjoy has 3 minutes sustained winds equivalent to 90 mph (75 Kts/140 Kph) gusting up to 100 mph (85 Kts/160 Kph) and a minimal center pressure of 978 millibars. The system is currently moving Northward with a speed of 3 mph (2 Kts/4 Kph.) The Force Thirteen Cyclone Analyst team has analyzed the system a bit higher with 1 minute sustained winds equivalent to 95 mph (80 Kts/150 Kph) and a minimal central pressure of 973 mb based on the satellite appearance.

 In Depth Look – 

Cyclone Biparjoy is currently located in a marginal favorable region for intensification as the easterly shear continues to erode the system, exposing the LLC partially. Analysis of model soundings shows Biparjoy will continue to remain in moderate easterly shear imparted due to the presence of a weak ULAC to its NE. But in 24 hours as it moves northwards it will align with the shear vector, opening a short window for a brief intensification in about a day combined with very warm SST.

At the time of this article posting, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had forecast a peak of 95 mph (80 Kts/150 Kph) while Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasted a peak of 115 mph (100 Kts/185 Kph.) After the peak, Biparjoy is expected to encounter unfavorable conditions. A sea of dry air, moderate to high shear, relatively colder SST, and decreased outflow will weaken the system steadily. There’s a large diversity of its future track by models making a big cone of uncertainty from Gujarat to Oman. However, the possibility remains that Biparjoy will move Northwest under the influence of the Subtropical Ridge to its east, heading toward Oman, Iran or the Makaran Coast although unlikely.

Fishermen & Port Warning –

As the Cyclone will intensify further into the deep sea, it’ll produce high swells into the sea with hurricane force winds. In wake of that The India Meteorological Department advised fishermen not to venture out into the Sea and terminate fishing activities in the deep sea. 

The post Cyclone Biparjoy set to become a Major Cyclone; No threat at present appeared first on Force Thirteen.

"Cyclone Mocha has become the most powerful storm since Cyclone Sidr," Azizur Rahman, the head of Bangladesh's Meteorological Department, told.

Current Information 

As of 21z, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has Extremely Severe Cyclone “Mocha” located at 17.8°N, 91.1°E. This is around 270 km South of Chittagong, Bangladesh. Extremely Severe Cyclone Mocha has 3 minutes of sustained winds equivalent to 150 mph (130 Kts/240 Kph) gusting up to 185 mph (160 Kts/300 Kph) and a minimal center pressure of 923 millibars; near Super Cyclone Status as well. The system is currently moving North-Northeastward with a speed of 9 mph (8 Kts/115 Kph.) As of the 18z outlook, our Force Thirteen Cyclone Analyst team has analyzed the system as 160 mph (140 Kts/260 Kph) and a minimal central pressure of 914 mb based on the satellite appearance of it, bringing it to Category 5 equivalent cyclone. 

 In Depth Look – 

Currently, Extremely Severe Cyclone Mocha is present in the North East Bay of Bengal, close to the Myanmar coast. 

Cyclone Mocha is currently located in a very favorable region for intensification with a jet streak and alignment with the shear direction. In addition, very warm sea surface temperatures and robust dual outflow aloft has allowed for rapid intensification. A polar satellite pass measured an eye temperature of over 20°C. This besides a full Cold Medium Grey (CMG) ring using the Dvorak infrared color scale supports a T number of T7.5. This number is 0.5 away from T8.0 which is reserved for only the most powerful tropical cyclones. As explained by one of our forecasters.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had forecast a peak of 140 mph (115 Kts/215 Kph) which will make it the strongest cyclone in the Bay of Bengal since Amphan. Just before landfall, increasing shear might bring minor weakening, possibly bringing it back to an equally destructive Category 4 Cyclone.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center currently forecasts a landfall intensity of 145 mph (125 kts/230 kph) which would make it the strongest landfall in the region since the 1968 Burma Super Cyclone. All signs point to a dangerous and potentially devastating impact in Myanmar and related areas.

Risk Related to Cyclone – 

In advance of the storm’s landfall, weather warnings have been issued by IMD for:

Wind – Gale force winds are forecast for Chittagong (state), Bangladesh, and entire Myanmar Coast with winds in excess of hurricane force being possible at the Arakan Coast near Sittwe, and around Cox’s Bazar.

Sea Conditions – During the passage of the Cyclone, 5-6 meter storm surge is forecast for Barisal, Chittagong (state), Bangladesh and the Arakan coast of Myanmar. Near the region of forecast landfall, near Sittwe and Cox’s Bazar, storm surge can reach up to a height of 15 meters. In the estuary and the tributaries, Gulf of Martaban and Tenasserim coast, storm surge can reach up to a height of 4 meters.

Rainfall – Widespread light to moderate rain with isolated Heavy rainfall is expected in the Southern States of NE India, the Entire Eastern Bangladesh consisting of the Capital City Dhaka, Sylhet, Barisal & Chittagong states of Bangladesh, Entire Myanmar except for Tenasserim coast & Yunnan province of China. In Chauk, 93mm was recorded throughout the course of May 13th due to Mocha.

Others – Due to the extreme wind & rainfall rate, landslide potential is high, particularly in elevated areas. Those in elevated areas should be on high alert!

Fishermen & Port Warning –

Due to the prevailing hazardous conditions, Port Warning 4 was issued from Mongla port in Bangladesh, While Warning No 8 was issued for ports in Barisal & Chittagong area & No 10 for Coxbaxar & Teknaf. Fishermen are requested not to venture around. 

Preparedness – 

Islamic Relief Bangladesh has opened its Emergency Operation Centre (EOC) at the Country’s Office for Cyclone MOCHA response. The Food Security Cluster Coordinator in Bangladesh has joined with the EOC team to monitor the situation and necessary coordination. Mass evacuations have been started in Sittwe as the storm progresses.

The ULA/AA has evacuated more than 30,000 villagers in Rakhine ahead of Cyclone Mocha, according to local news. The National Disaster Management Committee issued a red alert to some northern Rakhine.

Bangladesh officials have begun evacuating Rohingya refugees from risky areas to community centers in preparation for Cyclone Mocha, the most powerful cyclone in two decades.

Mocha stands as a potentially historic storm in the Myanmar/Bangladesh region. All warnings and preparations should be taken in the highest regard. Live coverage on Mocha continues at 01z (7:30 Myanmar Standard Time.) Stay tuned using this link:

The post Cyclone Mocha Poised to Devastate Myanmar Sunday appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Cyclone Mocha formed this morning and could become one of the strongest cyclones to landfall in Myanmar, currently threatening millions of people living in the coastal areas of the country & Bangladesh.

Current Information

According to the Indian Meteorological Department’s (IMD) 5:30 pm IST (12:00 pm UTC) update, Mocha is located at 12.2°N, 88.0°E. This is around 520 km west of Port Blair & 1,020 km south-southwest of Sittwe in Myanmar. The cyclone has 3-minute sustained winds of 60 mph (90 kph) gusting up to 65 mph (105 kph) & a central pressure of 994 millibars. The system is currently moving northwards with a speed of 7 mph (11 kph).

Force Thirteen has analyzed the system with 1-minute sustained winds of 70 mph (110 kph) & a central pressure of 983 mb based on scatterometer data & satellite appearance of the cyclone.

Current Forecast

Mocha is expected to move northward till tomorrow, with gradual intensification into a Category 1-equivalent cyclone in the Saffir-Simpson scale and a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm on the IMD scale. Afterwards, it will turn northeast, rounding the periphery of the subtropical ridge over the Indo-China Peninsula, before making landfall in the border of Myanmar – Bangladesh near Sittwe (Akyab) as a high-end major cyclone on the morning of May 14th.

Risk Related to Cyclone

In the wake of the system, the RSMC has given warnings of:

• Wind – Hurricane force winds of 130-160 kph are expected as Mocha moves over the
  landfall area on May 14th. Nearby Bangladesh coast could also experience gale force winds while northeast India may record winds of 50-60 kph gusting to 70 kph on the same day.
• Sea Conditions – During the passage of the storm, surge height will be 3-4 meters in estuary & tributaries at districts like Sittwe and Maungdaw, whereas 2-3 meters of storm surge are expected at Rakhine & Kyaukpyu districts but the topographical features like creeks near Sittwe will be prone to the highest storm surge in the basin, with 15 meters.
• Rainfall – Widespread light to moderate rainfall with some isolated areas experiencing heavy to very heavy rainfall (65-205 mm) is expected over
  Andaman & Nicobar Islands and isolated areas of northeast India. Light rainfall with cloudy sky conditions should also be expected over the coastal areas of Odisha & Gangetic West Bengal alongside Kolkata as the size of the storm gets larger. There’s also a chance that the cyclone could make heavy rainfall in the Yunnan province of China too during its weakening. Rainfall is expected to continue till May 14, with 80mm already occurred today at Car Nicobar due to the influence of the system.

Due to the prevailing hazardous conditions fishermen are
advised not to venture into sea & regulations of tourism & off
shore activities in Bay of Bengal till May 14.

Preparations

As the cyclone’s threat continues to grow, Bay of Bengal the Chief Minister of West Bengal Mamata Banarjee has asked the NDRF to remain well prepared & maintain sufficient stock of relief materials. The Bangladesh Red Crescent Society also did a evacuation drill in BashanChar today.

The region, specifically southeast Bangladesh & the Myanmar coast, didn’t witness any major cyclone for a long time, and due to the high population density the region is pretty much vulnerable. As so, Force Thirteen will bring you every update regarding it to you.

The post Cyclone Mocha Set to Bring Extensive Damage to Myanmar and Bangladesh appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Currently, it has a broad influence and developing circulation, with convection firing up close to the center, and could be declared a tropical cyclone later today.

On the other side of the equator, a tropical system has a 40% chance of development well to the west of Indonesia, and is expected to turn away from land relatively soon. Currently the system is struggling, but several computer models back cyclone genesis late this week or over the weekend, out at sea.

Elsewhere, no areas of interest are active at this time.

Watch our full Tropical Weather Bulletin using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fH0gK4Xsdes

The post Powerful Cyclone Possible in the Bay of Bengal This Week – Tropical Weather Bulletin – May 9, 2023 appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Model support is solidifying for a potential cyclone in the Bay of Bengal or Andaman Sea by midweek, with the GFS being very bold on the current forecast, depicting a near Category 5 storm off the coast of Myanmar. This should be treated as a worse case scenario, and could have catastrophic consequences, but at the moment it is an outlier forecast.

In the South Indian Ocean, another cyclone could spawn near Indonesia, performing a hairpin turn just off the coast of Sumatra and turning back out to sea, possibly reaching hurricane equivalent status.

The GFS is also depicting a third system in the southwest Indian Ocean, but no other models support it so far and there is a lack of run consistency, and so it has not been marked for potential development.

Watch our full Tropical Weather Bulletin using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHHrmEvG_Qg

The post Cyclone Chances Increasing in Bay of Bengal – Tropical Weather Bulletin – May 7, 2023 appeared first on Force Thirteen.

The post Fani now a Category 5 Cyclone – Video Update appeared first on Force Thirteen.