Tropical Cyclone Nisarga Forms off the West Indian Coast; Likely to Affect Mumbai on Wednesday


Tropical Cyclone Nisarga has developed this morning in the Arabian Sea a couple hundred miles off the west coast of India. As of the most recent bulletin from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) at 11:30 AM IST (06:00 UTC), the center of Tropical Cyclone Nisarga was located near 15.6°, 71.2°E, about 280 km (175 mi) west-northwest of Panjim, Goa, about 430 km (265 mi) south-southwest of Mumbai (Maharashtra), and about 640 km (395 mi) south-southwest of Surat (Gujarat). Maximum 3-minute sustained winds are near 65 km/h (40 mph), gusting to 85 km/h) (50 mph), and the minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches). The cyclone is moving northward at around 11 km/h (7 mph), and a general northward to northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Nisarga is likely to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm with maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h (70 mph) on Wednesday morning as it approaches the coast near Mumbai in Maharashtra state. The cyclone is forecast to weaken to a depression by Thursday and will likely dissipate over central India late this week.

Hazards Affecting Land

Force Thirteen’s 5-day forecast track and cone of uncertainty for Tropical Cyclone Nisarga as of 11:30 UTC June 2.

Nisarga is forecast to intensify as it approaches the Maharashtra coast, and is expected to make landfall on Wednesday between Harihareshwar and Daman, close to Alibag in Raigad district. Strong and potentially destructive winds are likely to impact portions of the coast beginning Wednesday morning, and gale-force winds are possible as far north as Mumbai. In addition, widespread heavy rainfall is likely to impact portions of Maharashtra through Thursday morning, which may lead to freshwater and flash flooding as well as landslides in mountainous and low-lying terrain. Flooding is one of the leading causes of damage and deaths from tropical cyclones. Never attempt to walk or drive into a flooded area, the water may be much deeper than it appears. If flash flooding is occurring, move to higher ground and stay away from the flooded area. Ensure that you have taken proper precautionary measures and have an emergency plan in action in case basic utilities become inaccessible.

External Links

Please refer to the India Meteorological Department and your local weather office for further information regarding Tropical Cyclone Nisarga as well as advisories effect. Force Thirteen will be providing daily updates on Tropical Cyclone Nisarga today, and will continue to provide updates as conditions warrant. More information can be found at Force Thirteen’s official outlets, including its Twitter and Facebook pages.

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