Franklin is expected to intensify after it leaves the Dominican Republic and passes the Turks and Caicos islands, where sea surface temperatures will improve. The storm may stall for a while and then move northwards and is expected to peak as a moderate hurricane.

Emily turned post-tropical earlier today, but there are signs that it could regenerate as it recurves northwards later this week.

Tropical Storm Gert was named yesterday and only lasted for a short time before weakening, and is not expected to linger for much longer. Another area of interest is located near Cape Verde and has a moderate chance of development as it moves westwards.

Hilary’s remnants persist over the western United States in the Eastern Pacific. Three areas of interest have low opportunities for development in the deep tropics, with the eastern system likely to cause large rainfall amounts over Costa Rica and Nicaragua regardless of development.

In the Western Pacific, an area of interest has a low chance of development and is expected to remain broad. The system will eventually head toward eastern Japan next week.

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Model support is solidifying for a potential cyclone in the Bay of Bengal or Andaman Sea by midweek, with the GFS being very bold on the current forecast, depicting a near Category 5 storm off the coast of Myanmar. This should be treated as a worse case scenario, and could have catastrophic consequences, but at the moment it is an outlier forecast.

In the South Indian Ocean, another cyclone could spawn near Indonesia, performing a hairpin turn just off the coast of Sumatra and turning back out to sea, possibly reaching hurricane equivalent status.

The GFS is also depicting a third system in the southwest Indian Ocean, but no other models support it so far and there is a lack of run consistency, and so it has not been marked for potential development.

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Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Amang has dissipated over the Philippines, with only modest amounts of residual rainfall expected over central and northern Luzon. Further out to sea, an area of interest could develop next week near Chuuk and Pohnpei, in Micronesia.

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In the Philippines, Tropical Storm Amang made landfall overnight and has since weakened a tropical depression, with convection only popping up in spurts. Locally high rainfall is likely in some areas, but in general rainfall will be lower than normally seen in tropical cyclones.

Elsewhere, an area of interest could develop near the central and eastern Micronesian islands as it gradually turns northwards.

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Elsewhere, a tropical cyclone is likely forming near the Philippines today, and will impact Catanduanes and southern Luzon over the next couple of days. The system is not likely to gain much intensity, but its formation has so far been poorly predicted, and the storm could become a major rainmaker for the region.

In addition, another area of interest formed today, well out at sea near eastern Micronesia. This system is becoming more likely to develop late this week or at the weekend and gradually move northwards, away from any land areas.

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Flash flooding is still the largest concern for coastal regions, given the sparsity of the area where the final landfall is expected. 300mm of rainfall could fall along some peripheral coastal regions, with rapid rain rates leading to flash flooding. A storm surge could also occur especially as the storm gets stronger.

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By early next week, a rapid increase in the storm’s size and intensity is expected, and some model projections show an extremely strong storm affecting the coast of Western Australia next week. This remains a low confidence scenario and bears close monitoring.

In the Philippine Sea, a tropical cyclone may develop soon near Palau, as it ventures northwestwards towards the central Philippine islands. Models have trended closer towards a recurvature of the eventual storm, but the threat of strong winds and high rain accumulations is present, particularly for Samar, Catanduanes, and southeastern Luzon next week.

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Elsewhere, a tropical depression formed inland over the Northern Territory of Australia in the last 24 hours near Kununurra, and became more organised after moving inland from the Timor Sea. This system will die out in a day or so as it heads towards Davenport. Cyclone Enala is barely holding on in the Southwest Indian Ocean, and should expire in a day or so. The remnants of Cyclone Freddy are moving back over the Mozambique Channel, and isn’t likely to redevelop.

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After about 5 days, it is expected that Cyclone Freddy will generate swells towards Madagascar and Mauritius due to Freddy’s outer circulation, which rough areas pose threat to water activities nearshore. The sea surface temperatures around Freddy are getting warmer to around 28 degrees Celsius, which favors further development in the next few days. And by the JTWC forecast cone, it is expected that Freddy will become a 110kt (205km/h) Category 3 system after a few days, though based on recent rapid development, it could intensify significantly in short order.

Moving on towards models prediction on Freddy, models have a high consensus in its track under stern westward steering current from the subtropical ridge, while the trough-ridge interaction next week remains a major uncertainty based on ECMWF and GFS which the turn determines whether Freddy will strike Madagascar or not later next week.

We advise residents of the aforementioned areas to watch the development of Cyclone Freddy as uncertainty still looms over the system.

This article is written by Dino Wun and formatted by Kenneth Chan.

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