This January has been a fairly active month compared to climatology in cyclone activity, with cyclone development spreading across all three Southern Hemisphere basins: Southwest Indian Ocean, Australian Region, and the South Pacific.

Southwest Indian Ocean

The Southwest Indian Ocean saw the formation of one cyclone, Cyclone Eloise.

Eloise formed on January 14 well to the east of Madagascar, eventually impacting the island as a mid-strength tropical storm.

After clearing the island, Eloise quickly strengthened on its approach to Mozambique, peaking as a Category 2 equivalent storm as it made landfall in Beira with 1-minute winds near 105 mph and 10 minute winds near 90 mph.

Eloise weakened as it moved inland over Africa, dissipating on January 25.

Eloise caused severe damage in Mozambique, with at least 21 deaths reported.

Weather stations in Beira recorded 25cm (10 inches) of rain within 24 hours.

Several rivers burst their banks, causing roads to become submerged in floodwaters.

Additionally, Eloise caused damage and flooding to South Africa, Eswatini, and Zimbabwe, as it weakened across southern Africa.

Australian Region

In the Australian Region, activity was unusually high with the JTWC designating six cyclones: Imogen, Joshua, Kimi, Lucas, 08U, and 12U.

The first four were also classified by the Bureau of Meteorology, the last two being tropical lows by their estimates.

The most notable storms this month in the Australian Basin were Kimi, Lucas and 12U.

With a lifespan ranging from the 16th to the 19th of January, Kimi took a short but unpredictable track in the middle of the month, peaking with both 1 and 10-minute winds of 65 mph.

Despite its proximity to land, no impacts have been reported.

Lucas was the strongest storm to form in the Australian basin this month, peaking at 75 mph in 1-minute winds and 70 mph in 10-minute winds over the South Pacific.

The cyclone formed on January 25, and crossed over into the South Pacific basin on February 1.

Shortly thereafter, Lucas made landfall over New Caledonia as a weakened storm, dissipating on February 3.

Damages are currently unknown, and no deaths have been reported as a result of Lucas.

12U was a very unusual storm that took a winding track along the northern coastline of West Australia, forming over land on January 30 and staying over it for 5 days while maintaining its strength as a tropical depression.

It finally attained tropical storm strength as it approached the coastline and peaked as a 40 mph storm, however it began extratropical transition shortly thereafter and dissipated on February 5.

South Pacific

For the South Pacific Basin, activity was limited to two systems, Ana and Bina.

Ana formed on January 26 northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu, and began to gradually strengthen.

After several days, Ana made landfall over Viti Levu, Fiji as a Category 1 storm on the SSHWS and a Category 3 on the Australian scale, peaking with 75 mph winds in both scales.

After clearing Fiji, Ana weakened significantly, dissipating on February 3.

Damages from Ana are unknown, with one person confirmed dead and five others still missing as of February 7.

Bina also took a similar track to Ana from January 29-31, with its remnants making landfall just after its dissipation.

Bina peaked with 10-minute winds of 40 mph and 1 minute winds of 50 mph. No significant impacts to land were reported as a result of Bina.

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Our Cyclone Monitoring Homepage also provides updated graphics and info on cyclones around the world.

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Although convection has waned substantially over the past few days, Eta still is producing some strong winds and heavy rain, and is still expected to strengthen a little more once it moves over the warm waters of the Loop Current tomorrow. Currently, Eta is sporting maximum winds of 65 mph and a pressure of 992 mbar.

Although not as destructive as the impacts felt in Central America, Eta’s impacts in South Florida were still significant. Rainfall spread across the region over the weekend, with over a foot reported in some areas of South Florida. Additionally, its landfall over the Florida Keys last night further extended the season’s record to 12 landfalling US named storms in total.

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The forecast for Kyle predicts some strengthening, and a 50 mph peak is forecast to occur in a couple days. Kyle’s wind field is also expected to expand in size before it becomes post-tropical around 2.5 days from now.

Kyle brought some rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic during its precursor disturbance phase, but thankfully is not expected to impact land any further as it rushes northeastward out to sea over the next couple days.

Force Thirteen also produces regular updates on their Twitter page and YouTube channel. Force Thirteen’s Cyclone Tracker also provides updated graphics and info on cyclones around the world, and can be found at https://www.force-13.com/cyclone-tracker/ .

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The Atlantic Basin featured a record six total systems, five of which were named. The first of the quintet, Tropical Storm Edouard, formed on July 4 as Tropical Depression Five over the western Atlantic from a decaying MCS. Five struggled to intensify at first, although it did bring squally conditions to Bermuda. However, it strengthened into Edouard as it accelerated northeast before becoming extratropical on July 6. Impacts from Edouard were minimal.

The second Atlantic system, Fay, formed off the coast of North Carolina on July 9, strengthening into a 60 mph tropical storm with the aid of warm Gulf Stream waters. Fay then made landfall in New Jersey as a 50 mph tropical storm, becoming the first to do so as a TC since Irene of 2011. Fay dissipated as it moved over the Northeast on July 11, although it left behind 6 deaths and $400 million in damages as of current estimates.

The third of the string of Atlantic storms was Tropical Storm Gonzalo, which formed in the Main Development Region on July 23. Gonzalo began to strengthen quickly, and although it was expected to become a hurricane, dry air halted the strengthening and Gonzalo reached a 65 mph peak instead. Gonzalo weakened as it impacted Trinidad and Tobago before dissipating on July 25.

The fourth Atlantic system this month was Hurricane Hanna, which formed in the central Gulf of Mexico on July 23. Hanna began to rapidly intensify despite forecasts for only gradual strengthening, and developed a well defined eye before striking Texas as a 90 mph Category 1 hurricane before dissipating over Mexico on July 27. Hanna became the first Texas landfall since Harvey of 2017. Across its path throughout the Gulf Coast and Mexico, Hanna killed 5 people, and damage estimates exceed $500 million.

The fifth and final named system was Hurricane Isaias, which impacted the Caribbean after forming from Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine on July 30. After unexpectedly intensifying after passing over Hispaniola, Isaias reached hurricane strength and became the second hurricane in the Atlantic season. Isaias weakened back to a tropical storm after making landfall over Andros Island in the Bahamas, although restrengthened for its final hurricane landfall over the Carolinas as an 85 mph hurricane, racing through New England before it became post-tropical early on August 5. Isaias caused heavy wind damage and flooding across the Greater Antilles, with impacts extending all the way through the Northeast US. Damages are currently unknown, although Isaias has claimed at least 11 lives across its path.

Finally, there was a short lived tropical depression, Tropical Depression Ten, in the far eastern Atlantic. Ten managed to form against the odds by fighting off the prevalent dry air. However, it wasn’t able to sustain itself due to deteriorating conditions, and dissipated on August 2, marking the first time in recorded history the Atlantic basin recorded 6 tropical cyclones in July.

Overall, the Atlantic had a fairly impactful month, with at least 22 deaths and $900 million in damages attributable to storms at this time.

The Eastern Pacific also featured four systems. Tropical Storm Cristina formed on July 6, and despite forecasts to become a significant hurricane, only strengthened modestly, peaking just shy of hurricane status at 70 mph and dissipating on July 13 without impacting land.

Two short-lived tropical depressions, Six and Seven, formed on July 13 and July 20 respectively and lasted a day each. Neither impacted land.

The second named storm, Douglas, was much more notable. Douglas formed on July 20, and began to gradually intensify at first, with a Category 1 peak predicted. Contrary to forecasts, Douglas’ intensification became rapid, and the storm peaked as a 150 mph Category 4 per Force Thirteen analysis as it began to threaten Hawaii. Despite models and forecasts of a hurricane landfall, Douglas passed just north of the islands, potentially sparing significant damage. Wind shear began to take a toll on Douglas thereafter, and it began to rapidly weaken, dissipating on July 29 east of the International Date Line. Impacts to Hawaii are currently unknown.

According to the JMA, there was also a tropical depression in the Western Pacific from July 27 to July 30, although it failed to get named, and was also not designated by the JTWC, marking the first time since the 1800s where July featured no nameable storms in the basin.

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The journey to a strong hurricane landfall has been notable- Hanna’s intensification was largely unprecedented, with initial NHC forecasts only predicting Hanna to reach 50 mph at its peak. However, models became more aggressive over time, and Hanna took advantage of very warm waters throughout the Gulf of Mexico over its lifetime to intensify significantly in the days leading up to landfall, becoming the first hurricane of the season during the morning on July 25. The landfall that occurred this afternoon is the first hurricane landfall of the season, and is also the first Texas hurricane landfall since Hurricane Harvey in 2017.

Hanna’s impacts are currently being felt across southern Texas and Mexico, with gusts as high as 115 mph and a pressure bottoming out at 973 mbar during landfall. Storm surge inundations of 4-6 feet were forecast along parts of the Texas coast nearest to Hanna’s center, with the highest surge reported reaching 8 feet as of Tuesday evening. Coastal flooding has already caused damage to structures along the shoreline. Rainfall totals are expected to be heaviest to the south of the storm, with general storm totals of 6-12 inches with isolated maxima to 18 inches expected throughout the storm’s path in south Texas into northern Mexico.

Hanna is expected to weaken over the next several days before dissipating over northern Mexico, with rainfall being the primary threat for areas further inland.

For the latest official information, please refer to the National Hurricane Center.

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By 15:00 UTC on July 22, Gonzalo had strengthened significantly, having received its name only 3 hours earlier. At this time, Gonzalo was tracking westward with winds of 50 mph and a pressure of 1000 mbar, with banding features and a hint of an eye-like feature starting to become present on satellite imagery. However, Gonzalo has had a struggle against dry air, although it still is intensifying despite this.

Gonzalo’s forecast is still uncertain, although it is increasingly likely that it will strengthen into a hurricane- the first of the 2020 season should it do so. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting an 80 mph peak for Gonzalo a day or two before it enters the Caribbean, although there is uncertainty to how the dry air will impact the intensification trend.

As we head into the weekend, the Windward Islands may see tropical storm and/or hurricane conditions from Gonzalo. The degree of the impacts are currently uncertain, although it seems likely that watches and warnings may be issued in the coming days.

For the latest official information, please refer to the National Hurricane Center. 

Force Thirteen also produces regular updates on their Twitter page and YouTube channel.

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98L is currently a weak and disorganized low pressure system, although as it passes over favorable conditions, 98L is likely to organize and pick up strength. The National Hurricane Center and Force Thirteen both analyze 98L to have a 70% chance of formation as of noon on July 8. It is still unknown whether 98L will be fully tropical or subtropical, but it is likely to form regardless.

Impacts from 98L could potentially stretch from the Outer Banks to New England over the next several days. The primary impact will likely be heavy rainfall, with flash flooding possible throughout the storm’s path in areas with heavier totals. Gusty winds may also be a concern during the storm’s passage, and rough surf is possible for a good portion of the mid-Atlantic coast all the way up through New England.

For further official information, refer to your local meteorological office. Force Thirteen is also providing more updates on 98L and other storms around the world on their YouTube channel, as well as their Facebook and Twitter accounts.

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The Atlantic Basin featured two systems, both of which were named. The first system, Tropical Storm Cristobal, formed on June 1 as Tropical Depression Three from the remnants of Tropical Storm Amanda, which had already caused deadly flooding in Central America, particularly El Salvador and Guatemala. After strengthening in the Bay of Campeche, Cristobal looped southward to strike Mexico at its 60 mph peak, and went on to deliver very heavy rainfall as it gradually turned northward, killing 2 in the country. Cristobal then reorganized over the Gulf of Mexico after spending several days inland, before making landfall over Louisiana as a very large tropical storm. Cristobal survived as a depression as far inland as Wisconsin before turning post-tropical early on June 10, and caused 2 overall deaths in the United States. Overall damages are currently estimated at $343 million.

The second Atlantic system, Dolly, developed as Subtropical Depression Four on June 22 offshore of the northeastern US, before turning fully tropical and strengthening into a tropical storm the following day. However, Dolly only reached peak winds of 45 mph before succumbing to cooler waters on June 24. Dolly was a fairly small system, and did not cause notable impacts to land.

The North Indian Ocean featured one storm- Severe Cyclonic Storm Nisarga. Forming in the Arabian Sea on June 1, Nisarga organized gradually before rapidly intensifying leading up to landfall near Alibag, India on June 3, at which point it had attained peak 3-minute winds of 70 mph and 1-minute winds of 85 mph, equivalent to a Category 1. Nisarga dissipated rapidly on June 4. Damages from Nisarga are currently estimated at $665 million, with 6 deaths occurring in the state of Maharashtra.

In the Western Pacific, one tropical storm formed- Tropical Storm Nuri. A weak and disorganized system, Nuri peaked as a 45 mph storm while crossing the South China Sea before impacting southern China and Hong Kong. Damages from Nuri are unknown, although Nuri caused 1 death in Hong Kong.

The Eastern Pacific also featured two systems. Tropical Storm Boris formed from Tropical Depression Three on June 24, strengthening to reach its peak as a 40 mph storm early on June 26 before weakening to a depression shortly thereafter. However, Boris crossed into the Central Pacific late on June 26, which made it the second tropical cyclone in history to do so in the month of June, with Barbara of 2001 being the only other cyclone to exist in the Central Pacific in June. Boris continued to become disorganized, and degenerated into a remnant low on June 28. Boris did not impact land.

The second Eastern Pacific system, Tropical Depression Four, was a short-lived system that formed on June 30 southwest of Baja California. Four dissipated soon afterwards on the same day after peaking as a 35 mph depression, without causing significant impact to land.

The strongest storm was Cyclone Nisarga, which attained peak 3-minute winds of 70 mph and 1-minute winds of 85 mph as well as a pressure of 990 mbar. The longest-lived storm was Cristobal, whose tropical phase spanned from June 1 to June 10. Collectively, the six systems that occurred this month caused 11 deaths and just over $1 billion USD in damages.

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Cristobal only has a little more than a day left over water, and only a small amount of additional strengthening is anticipated due to dry air continuing to disrupt the inner core, as well as its very large size. The anticipated peak for Cristobal to reach is 60 mph, and Cristobal is expected to make landfall around that intensity as well per the NHC and F13 forecasts. Afterwards, Cristobal is expected to weaken as it tracks northward along the Mississippi Valley, likely losing tropical characteristics over the mid-Mississippi Valley and dissipating soon after.

Cristobal has grown to be a large tropical cyclone, with gale-force winds spanning a diameter of almost 350 miles. Because of this, impacts are expected even for areas far away from the storm’s center, and have already begun to occur in coastal areas. Several tornado warnings were reported in Florida earlier today, and conditions are expected to continue deteriorating throughout the Gulf Coast over the next day.

Storm surge is expected to impact the Gulf Coast, with the highest surge occurring along coastline between the mouth of the Mississippi River and Ocean Springs, MS. Areas between Morgan City, LA, and Marco Island, FL, could also see surge related impacts. A Tropical Storm Warning also extends from Intracoastal City, LA, all the way to the western Florida Panhandle, and tropical storm conditions could begin to impact the shoreline as early as tonight. Rainfall is also expected to be a significant impact, although expected totals have not changed much. Rainfall totals of 4-8 inches are still expected in the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast, with isolated maxima to 12 inches possible in these areas. Further north, the rainfall is expected to taper off, although parts of the mid-Mississippi valley are likely to see totals of 2-4 inches with maxima to 6 inches.

For the latest official information, please refer to the National Hurricane Center.

Force Thirteen also produces regular updates on their Twitter page and YouTube channel.

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Over the next several days, Cristobal is expected to regain some of its former strength, although the amount of strengthening could be limited by the storm’s large size, dry air to its west and an increase in shear in the coming days. Despite this, Cristobal could still strengthen into a moderately strong tropical storm, and is predicted to make landfall over the Gulf Coast as a tropical storm- likely in Louisiana. After this time, Cristobal is expected to weaken as it moves north along the Mississippi Valley and dissipate over the Central or Midwestern US.

The majority of the threats that Cristobal now pose are still rainfall related, with totals of 4-8 inches expected in the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast, with isolated amounts exceeding a foot possible. Areas in the mid-Mississippi valley are likely to see totals of 2-4 inches with maxima to 6 inches. In addition, Cristobal could deliver an additional 4-6 inches of rainfall to southern Mexico, including Campeche, coastal Chiapas, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and Yucatan, as well as Belize, El Salvador and southern Guatemala. Southern Honduras may receive an additional 3-4 inches of rainfall. Storm surge will also become a threat as Cristobal approaches the Gulf Coast.

For the latest official information, please refer to the National Hurricane Center.

Force Thirteen also produces regular updates on their Twitter page and YouTube channel.

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