Watch our animation of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MM86Ghca5RQ

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Current Information

As of 18Z on July 3rd, 2024, Beryl was located at 16.8 degrees north, 75.3 degrees west, and was moving west-northwest at approximately 18 mph. The latest outlook from the NHC about Beryl’s stats supported maximum winds of 144 mph and a central pressure of 954 mb.

Current Warnings & Watches

A hurricane warning was recently reissued for the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, indicating that intense hurricane conditions are expected to hit the affected islands. Meanwhile, the NHC issued a hurricane warning for the eastern coasts of the Yucatan peninsula in Mexico while issuing tropical storm watches for the northern portions of the Yucatan peninsula and the southeastern coasts of Belize. Again, if you live in one of the affected areas from Beryl, please monitor additional warnings or watches issued by your national meteorological service within your area.

Current Forecast

As the cone forecast data has shown, as of 11 a.m. EDT today, Beryl will continue to move to the Yucatan peninsula while passing through the southern coasts of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands as a major hurricane for some time. By 8 a.m. EST on Friday, Beryl will land on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, then head into Texas around the following Monday at 8 a.m.

Current Hazards

Hurricane Beryl is now spreading windy tropical conditions to Jamaica and is also expected to bring rainfall of 4 to 8 inches there, making outside preparations dangerous or difficult. Meanwhile, a life-threatening storm surge will rise by up to 2 or 4 feet above sea levels in areas of the Cayman Islands, followed by 3 to 5 feet on the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula. Preparations should be rushed to complete as Beryl will land on the Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands tomorrow night or Friday morning. Evacuate when directed by officials, and stay tuned to your national meteorological service or Force Thirteen for updates. You can also check out Hurricane Beryl’s most recent live tracking here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EEwPe2RPxVk.

The post Major Hurricane Beryl Brushes Through Jamaica, Later Aims for Yucatan Peninsula appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Current Information

As of 18Z on July 2nd, 2024, Beryl was located at 16.2 degrees north, 72.7 degrees west, and was moving west-northwest at a rapid 22 mph. The latest outlook about Beryl’s stats supported maximum winds of 150 mph and a central pressure of 947 mb.

Current Warnings and Watches

Recently, a Hurricane warning was issued for the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, indicating that intense hurricane conditions are expected to hit the affected islands. Meanwhile, a tropical storm warning was issued for Martinique, meaning that tropical storm conditions, including strong winds and heavy rain, are expected within 36 hours. Lastly, a tropical storm and a hurricane watch have been issued on the southern and western coasts of Haiti, Mexico, and Belize. If you live in one of the affected areas from Beryl, please monitor additional warnings or watches issued by your national meteorological service.

Current Forecast

As the cone forecast data has shown for the last few hours, Beryl will continue to move into Jamaica as a major hurricane. By 8 pm EST, Beryl will move inwards to the island of Jamaica, then move into the southern peninsula of Mexico on July 5th at 8 am EST, and then head into Texas around next Sunday at 8 pm.

Current Hazards

Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce heavy rainfall of approximately 4 to 8 inches and bring out strong winds. It will move inland to Jamaica tomorrow, making outside preparations dangerous or difficult. Meanwhile, a life-threatening storm surge will rise by up to 2 or 4 feet above sea levels in areas of the Cayman Islands, followed by 3 to 5 feet on the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula and 6 to 9 feet on the southern coasts of Jamaica. Preparations should be rushed to be completed as Beryl will land in Jamaica tomorrow. Evacuate when directed by officials, and stay tuned to your national meteorological service or Force Thirteen for updates.

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Current information

As of the 11:35am AST (3:35 pm UTC) update, Hurricane Beryl is located at 10.8 degrees north, 54.9 degrees west, or about 350 miles to the east-southeast of Barbados. Current reconnaissance data support winds of 130 mph (195 km/h) and a central pressure of 962 millibars, and is moving west at 21 mph (18 knots). Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).

In the latest 8am EDT outlook, the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor Invest 94L, located over the southern portion of the Bay of Campeche. According to the NHC, environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a short-lived tropical depression could form before the system moves inland over Mexico on Monday morning. It has a 50% chance of forming in the next 7 days, with a reconnaissance aircraft enroute to investigate the system as of this writing.

Next to Beryl is Invest 96L, which remains at a 70% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone in the next 7 days, as it is likely to form in the middle of next week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph through the Atlantic.

Current warnings

A Hurricane Warning, meaning hurricane conditions are expected, is in effect for:

• Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands, Grenada, and Tobago

A Tropical Storm Warning, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours, is in effect for:

• Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours, is in effect for:

• Dominica and Trinidad

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be issued later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Current forecast

Beryl has continued its rapid intensification as reconnaissance data have showed over the last few hours. Given the continued conducive environmental conditions and compact inner core, it will likely strengthen some more through tonight. Beryl is expected to be a very dangerous category 4 hurricane when it moves through Windward Islands. The models show a gradual increase in shear when the system moves across the Caribbean Sea and that should cause Beryl’s intensity to go down and then gradually weaken. However, Beryl is expected to remain a significant hurricane through the next 5 days.

In the track side, it has continued to move swiftly westwards under a strong subtropical ridge to its north, but it has been moving south of the models’ forecasts over the past day or two. A continued quick west to west-northwest motion is forecast during the next several days as the ridge remains the primary steering feature. This should take the core of Beryl near Grenada by Monday morning into night and then across much the Caribbean Sea during the following few days.

Current hazards

• Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning early Monday morning. Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands, with the highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada.
  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area starting late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area starting late tonight.
• A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
• Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through Monday. Localized maxima of 10 inches is possible, especially in the Grenadines. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas.
  Showers and thunderstorms well north of the track may produce 1 to 4 inches of rain over portions of southeastern Puerto Rico Monday night into Tuesday.
  Rainfall from Beryl may impact portions of southern Hispaniola Tuesday into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of rain possible.
• Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Preparations should be rushed to completion as Beryl continues its trek towards the Windward Islands. The island of St. Lucia has issued a shutdown order starting from 8pm AST (12am UTC). Evacuate if directed by officials, and stay tuned to your local meteorological office for updates, and to us as the hurricane season progresses. You can always check our 24/7 automated stream which you can watch here:

The post Atlantic tropics: Beryl a major hurricane, two possible cyclones likely to form appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Current information

As of the 11pm AST (3am UTC) advisory, Hurricane Beryl is located at 10.4 degrees north, 51.2 degrees west, or about 595 miles to the east-southeast of Barbados. It currently has winds of 85 mph (140 km/h) and a central pressure of 986 millibars, and is moving west at 20 mph (17 knots).

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).

Current warnings

A Hurricane Warning, meaning hurricane conditions are expected, is in effect for:

• Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands, and Grenada.

A Tropical Storm Warning, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours, is in effect for:

• Martinique and Tobago.

A Tropical Storm Watch, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours, is in effect for:

• Dominica.

Current forecast

Beryl is expected to maintain is current westward track with its speed over the next couple of days. This would take the system to the Windward Islands by Monday morning, and is forecast to pass at the middle of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and Grenada into Monday night, before continuing towards the Carribbean.

A subtle weakness in this ridging in the 24-48 hour period should help the hurricane gain a bit of latitude before the mid-level ridge builds back in over the southeastern U.S. by the middle of next week, likely resulting in a turn back more westward by Thursday.

In the intensity side, Beryl has all it needs to continue its rapid intensification, with the light to moderate easterly shear that had been affecting the system subsiding, while the hurricane remains embedded in a large area of deep-layer moisture and over 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures. The small and well-organized inner core likely means the storm should take full advantage of these conditions, with the SHIPS rapid intensification index showing a 62% chance of increasing its current winds by 25 knots in 24 hours. The current NHC forecast has a major hurricane of 125 mph (110 knots) as it passes through the Windward Islands.

Once Beryl enters the Caribbean, there could be a marked increase in westerly vertical wind shear as a strong easterly low-level jet will keep Beryl moving quickly westward against lighter upper-level upper-level easterlies partially eroded by a deep-layer trough off the Eastern Seaboard. Some weakening is forecast after 48 hours as Beryl moves further into the Caribbean.

Current hazards

• Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning Sunday night. Devastating wind damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands.
  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area starting Sunday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area starting Sunday night.
• A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow near where Beryl makes landfall in the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
• Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands Sunday night into Monday. This rainfall may cause flooding in vulnerable areas.
  Showers and thunderstorms well north of the track may produce 1 to 4 inches of rain over portions of southeastern Puerto Rico Monday night into Tuesday.
  Rainfall from Beryl may impact portions of southern Hispaniola Tuesday into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of rain possible.
• Swells generated by Beryl are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Residents within the warning area should start preparations as the system continues its track, and monitor products issued by their national meteorological services. Stay tuned to us as this system progresses. We currently have a 24/7 automated stream live, and you can watch here:

The post Hurricane warnings in effect as Hurricane Beryl nears the Windward Islands appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Current information

As of the 8am AST (12pm UTC) update, Tropical Storm Beryl is located at 9.8 degrees north, 46.8 degrees west, or about 890 miles to the east of Barbados. It currently has winds of 60 mph (95 km/h) and a central pressure of 999 millibars, and is moving west at 21 mph (18 knots).

As for the two possible cyclones, the NHC is monitoring Invest 94L, which is currently over the Yucatan Peninsula. According to the latest 8pm EDT outlook, it is forecast to form over the Bay of Campeche tonight or tomorrow, before it moves inland Mexico next week. It currently has a 40% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone in the next 7 days.

Meanwhile, another area of low pressure to the east of Beryl is also being monitored by the NHC. It currently has a 60% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone in the next 7 days, and is looking to form in the middle of next week as it moves at a general speed of 15 to 20 mph across the Atlantic.

Current warnings

Currently, a Hurricane Watch has been issued by the Barbados national meteorological service as Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane once it reaches the island. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of Beryl, and additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of this area later this morning.

Current forecast

Beryl is forecast to continue intensifying as it moves along the Atlantic’s abnormally favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, with warm sea surface temperatures throughout its whole forecast track. The models are consistent with Beryl tracking west to west-northwest towards the Windward Islands, and it could track towards Jamaica at the end of the 5-day period.

In the intensity side of things, Beryl has a chance of rapidly intensifying, with the SHIPS index showing a 44% chance of increasing its current intensity by 65 knots in 72 hours. The current NHC forecast has Beryl intensifying into a hurricane by tomorrow early morning AST, and having a peak intensity of 110 mph by Monday as it moves near Barbados. It has been pointed out that their forecast could be conservative, as several of the intensity guidance models forecast Beryl to become a major hurricane.

Forecasted impacts

• Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area by Sunday night or Monday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible on Sunday.
• A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow in the Hurricane Watch area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
• Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands. This rainfall may produce localized flooding in vulnerable areas.
• Swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Stay tuned to your local meteorological office and to us as the Atlantic season progresses. You can check our live automated stream at:

The post Hurricane watch issued as Tropical Storm Beryl intensifies in the Atlantic; two more cyclones possible appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Current Information

As of 11am Eastern Standard Time, Hurricane Ian is located at 19.1 degrees north and 82.7 degrees west, or about 100 miles west of Grand Cayman, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (130 kph), with gusts up to 100 mph (155 kph), and a central pressure of 980 millibars. The storm is currently moving northwest at 13 mph (20 kph).

Current Warnings

A Hurricane Warning, meaning hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours, is in effect for:

• Grand Cayman
• Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Warning, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours, is in effect for:

• Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
• Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
• Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch, meaning there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours, is in effect for:

• Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
• Dry Tortugas
• Florida Bay
• Anclote River southward to the Card Sound Bridge
• Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch, meaning hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours, is in effect for:

• Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours, is in effect for:

• Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
• Englewood southward to Flamingo
• Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge
• Lake Okeechobee

Current Forecast

Ian is set to continue rapid intensification as it turns north-northwest, and become a major hurricane by tomorrow as it reaches western Cuba. From there, the hurricane is forecast to peak in the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with winds of 140 mph (220 kph), before weakening into a Category 2 due to a combination of strong southwesterly shear and dry air, and hit Florida with the same intensity. The storm is then forecast to weaken into a tropical storm as it moves inland.

Current Hazards

Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash floods and possible mudslides are the main hazards for Ian as the aforementioned threats are expected in portions of western Cuba beginning this evening and continuing into Tuesday. Devastating wind damage is possible where the core of Ian moves across western Cuba.

Hurricane-force winds are possible in the hurricane watch area in west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions possible by late Tuesday.

Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall associated with rainbands may lead to flooding across all of South Florida. Rainfall totals may range 3 to 8 inches through Thursday with locally higher amounts possible, and the risk could extend later into the week. This may result in significant flooding impacts. Peak storm surge values of 3 to 5 feet are possible along the Southwest Florida coast mainly between Tuesday night and Wednesday night. This could lead to significant and life-threatening storm surge flooding.

Tornadoes may be embedded in showers and thunderstorms within the outer rainbands associated with the system. Main concern is from tonight through Wednesday. Hazardous marine and beach conditions are expected with a high risk for rip currents across all South Florida beaches. Elevated surf conditions are expected along the Gulf coast.

Stay safe from this storm, and listen to local officials for recommended preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately. Force Thirteen will be live this afternoon, and you can watch it through here:

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Hurricane Sandy will be remembered for decades as a very unusual storm, with its huge size and disputed tropicality all the way back to its passage near the Bahamas.

Of course, it cannot be forgotten that the storm also made a hurricane landfall on Jamaica and a major hurricane landfall in Cuba, before it devastated the northeastern United States.

It will also be remembered in meteorological circles for the National Hurricane Center’s paralysis in issuing watches and warnings beyond North Carolina, due to the storm’s transition to extratropical status.

This pedantry caused much confusion in the wider world, and one could suggest that many at the NHC were desperate to make exceptions, but protocol at the time didn’t allow it.

We know of course that these rules were changed after Sandy, and the National Weather Service had out all the relevant warnings relating to an extratropical cyclone when it made landfall.

Awareness and Criticism

High Wind Warnings and Flood Warnings littered the Mid-Atlantic and the northeast, but some still didn’t take it as seriously as they would a hurricane watch or warning.

Hurricane Sandy’s enormous wind-field caused maximum impact when it made landfall in New Jersey, with impacts extending over many adjacent states and beyond to the whole region, with damages reaching around $75 billion – the second highest ever total at the time behind Hurricane Katrina.

Meanwhile in the United Kingdom, mute one-man show Nathan Foy was scheduled to have a Monday-Friday vacation in the south of England during the storm.

Early updates were created easily and efficiently, even though by today’s standards they are pretty poor. Internal communications also reveal that Nathan criticised the British news media for publicising Hurricane Sandy as “Frankenstorm”.

“Oh for goodness sake. Now the British news agencies are calling Sandy “Frankenstorm”, coined by the American media. They named storms since 1950 for a reason. The name’s Sandy!”

But a point of realisation came about where it was becoming plain that this would be a severe impact whether tropical or not, and that he would have to either sit out the vacation or sit out Sandy.

A Holiday Cut Short

Things got worse when Sandy reached Category 2 hurricane status as it started to execute its terminal turn towards the United States in the subtropics.

Landfall was slated for Monday evening, October 29, right around the time that Nathan and company would be settling in after driving six hours across the country.

The journey began at 12:15pm, and ended at 5:30pm, with good traffic along the way. At this point, Hurricane Sandy was now 8 hours from landfall.

And so, the source of the below photo comes from hurriedly setting up the computer in an isolated cabin in Cornwall, to produce the biggest update of Hurricane Sandy’s life – the one where it was about to make landfall and unleash its widespread damage and storm surge.

The video was made as normal on the computer, however the only free power point was along a wooden bench, with no desk for a monitor.

Making the video was only one part of the project, however, as the cabin had no internet reception.

Nathan was also prepared for this, and had to rush a laptop across to the community hub of the holiday park and use their Wi-Fi to upload the video, after transferring the video via a memory stick.

The vacation in general was a damp squib, with Hurricane Sandy getting in the way and the accommodation having poor heating.

Nathan and his family headed back home on October 31, only three days into the five day trip.

Links:

The video that was produced from the holiday cabin:
https://youtu.be/7Z24AvnOn20

The Track of Hurricane Sandy (created in 2020):
https://youtu.be/ASr7Vrb04lc

The post 9 Years Since the Hurricane Sandy Kerfuffle appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Today marks 10 years since Hurricane Irene struck Cape Lookout, North Carolina, causing 49 direct deaths and spawned several tornadoes prior to landfall.

Storm Synopsis

On August 15th, 2011 a tropical wave exited the west coast of Africa accompanied by a large area of clouds and thunderstorms. 

The wave would soon become a tropical storm and eventually a hurricane, bringing severe impacts along the US East Coast.

The storm’s convection diminished passing south of the Cabo Verde Islands the next day, but it maintained its mid-level circulation.

Thunderstorm activity regenerated as it continued to move westward across the tropical Atlantic and became organized halfway between the Lesser Antilles and west coast of Africa.

A reconnaissance aircraft investigated the system on the 20th, finding surface winds of 45 to 50mph but without a well-defined low-level circulation.

Just before the conclusion of the mission, the aircraft was able to isolate a circulation in the southern edge of the convection, prompting the designation as Tropical Storm Irene in the evening of the 20th.

Throughout the 21st, as it moved west-northwest across the extreme northeast Caribbean Sea, it continued to gain strength as the circulation became larger.

It then made a landfall over St. Croix the evening of that day and over Punta Santiago, Puerto Rico early into the next day.

It became a hurricane shortly after the Puerto Rico landfall.

It passed north of Hispaniola throughout the 23rd, and despite being over warm water and low wind shear, the interaction of Irene’s circulation with the mountains of the Island delayed further intensification.

As it moved away from Hispaniola, it quickly intensified and became a Category 3 Major Hurricane with peak intensity of 125mph and a minimum central pressure of 957mb within the 18 nautical mile diameter eye.

However, it wasn’t the lowest pressure observed from Irene as the pressure was observed while the closed eyewall structure became more fractured.

The dropsonde measured a minimum central pressure of 942mb with now decreasing winds of 105mph.

It then made four landfalls in The Bahamas throughout the 24th and 25th.

The hurricane then continued northward and passed far from the eastern coasts of Florida and Georgia.

And on the morning of the 27th, it made landfall near Cape Lookout, North Carolina with an intensity of 85mph with hurricane winds east of the North Carolina Sounds and Outer Banks.

As it continued north-northeast movement just offshore of the Delmarva Peninsula and made landfall over Brigantine Island, New Jersey in the early morning of the 28th, still being a high-end tropical storm with winds of 70mph.

Later into the day, it made landfall over Coney Island, New York and it moved over Manhattan Island.

Swells over the Mid-Atlantic were observed for a couple of days between the North Carolina and New York landfalls.

It continued north-northeast over New England and became extratropical on the 29th near the New Hampshire-Vermont border.

The next day, it was absorbed by a frontal system in northeastern Canada.

Overview

The system was well observed with 19 Air Force Reserve reconnaissance missions and 16 NOAA reconnaissance missions.

Guzabo Abajo, Puerto Rico, recorded the heaviest rain from Irene at 22.05 inches enough to cause flooding.

There were unconfirmed reports of wind gusts of 115mph in Cat Island, The Bahamas.

A pressure reading of 950.4mb, during the afternoon of the 25th, was observed in Marsh Harbour, in the Island of Abacos, The Bahamas.

Large swaths of 5 to 10 inches of rain along the US east coast was recorded with Bayboro, North Carolina recording the highest amount at 15.74 inches.

Largest storm surge was 7 feet in Oregon Inlet, Marina, North Carolina in the late night of 27th.

It also spawned several tornadoes across the Mid-Atlantic with an EF2 tornado that landed in Columbia, North Carolina.

A total of 49 deaths and damages amounting to $14.2B (2011 value) were recorded.

The name was then retired and got replaced by Irma which suffered a similar fate.

Response and Aftermath

Many people underestimated Irene as a Category 1 hurricane, but the storm produced major damage.

Sustained high winds and major flooding together with storm surges caused more damage than anticipated.

Official forecasts were accurate but the populous was largely caught off guard.

“People just did not think that the impacts from a Category 1 would have been so substantial”

John Cole, meteorologist with the NWS in Newport/Morehead City.

To understand the public perception of the threats posed by Hurricane Irene and find out how people responded to the weather forecasts, the NWS held public meetings in some of the communities hardest hit by the storm.

Meetings during December were held in Dare, Pamlico, and Beaufort counties, where participants were surveyed about their experiences and perceptions.

In addition, Rich Bandy, lead meteorologist at the NWS Newport/Morehead City office, presented comparisons of the forecasts for wind, inland flooding and storm surge with observations during and after the storm.

Coastal flooding caused by storm surge was the main threat were people were not prepared enough for.

The NHC correctly forecasted storm surge will be between 6 to 8 feet as the highest storm surge was recorded at 7 feet.

And major flooding across parts of Carteret, Pamlico, Beaufort and Hyde counties and other areas including the entire barrier island chain north of Cape Lookout, and the Pamlico and Neuse river areas was observed.

Improvements

The NHC improved its warning system with better accuracy and longer lead time for preparation and information decimation.

However, making people evacuate remains a problem as people often don’t want to leave.

The NWS and local governments then used social media to reach more people in addition to the traditional TV news networks and newspapers.

“While social media is a way to reach people who do not rely on traditional media, adoption has been slow because many municipalities do not allow employees to access the sites on work computers. One of the lessons from Irene for emergency communicators has been that policies need to be developed about the use of social media, including how it will be staffed when a crisis occurs.”

Roberta Thuman, Town of Nags Head’s public information office.

Conclusion

While Irene was certainly not the strongest storm of the 2010s, it certainly resulted in significant changes in forecasting and forecasting platforms.

The impacts of Irene will likely be remembered for many years to come, even with the more powerful Hurricane Sandy that occurred one year later.

The post Major Hurricane Irene: A Decade Later appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Tropical Depression THIRTEEN

Tropical Depression Thirteen was designated in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic Ocean last night at the 11:00 pm AST advisory. As of 11:00 am AST, Tropical Depression Thirteen has wind speeds of 35 mph and is currently located at around 16.0°N, 52.0°W, moving WNW at about 21 mph.

Thirteen is expected to continue moving is a west-northwesterly direction through the next 5 days, however what’s more uncertain is Thirteen’s intensity forecast, which greatly depends on how far north or south Thirteen moves. Generally, if Thirteen moves north and further away from the northern Caribbean Islands, it will become a stronger system, as shown by the HWRF and HMON models. If Thirteen moves more south and towards the northern Caribbean Islands, Thirteen will remain weaker, as shown by the European and GFS models.

Other than potential land interaction, the only factor that may inhibit the development of Thirteen is dry air. Wind shear is likely to remain low and Sea Surface Temperatures are to continue being warm. The National Hurricane Center shows Thirteen gradually intensifying into a hurricane by Day 4, and maintaining minimal hurricane intensity through Day 5, due to uncertainty about how Thirteen will interact with the Greater Antilles.

Tropical Depression FOURTEEN

Tropical Depression Fourteen was designated at 11:00am EDT today. As of 2:00 pm EDT, Tropical Depression Fourteen has wind speeds of 35mph and is currently located at around 15.4°N, 80.0°W, moving W at about 18 mph. A Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is being sent to investigate Fourteen later today.

Fourteen is expected to continue to move west due to the Bermuda High for the next day or so before a trough over the Gulf of Mexico becomes the primary steering current for Fourteen, causing it to slow down while turning towards the northwest and, grazing the Honduran coastline before then beginning to accelerate towards the northwest, tracking over the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend and entering the Gulf of Mexico on Days 4 and 5.

Fourteen is forecast to strengthen little in the next day or so, but to begin strengthening as it begins to turn towards the northwest tomorrow. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center is on the higher end of the models, predicting that low wind shear and Sea Surface Temperatures of 29-30°C will allow Fourteen to strengthen more than major models are showing. The National Hurricane Center has Fourteen as a 70 mph Tropical Storm when it makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday evening.

***

Regardless of intensity, Tropical Depressions Thirteen and Fourteen are both expected to impact land to some degree. Nearly all of the Western Atlantic should monitor the progress of either one or both of these systems closely over the next few days. The next two names on the Atlantic Naming List this year are Laura and Marco respectively, with the depression that intensifies into a Tropical Storm first receiving the name Laura.

Force Thirteen will continue to monitor the progress of Thirteen and Fourteen here on force-13.com. You can also find us on our YouTube, Twitter, and Facebook.

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